Friday, April 27, 2018

Every Passing Day Looks Worse For Republican Prospects In November

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So it turns out that when all the votes were counted, Lesko did even worse than what was reported Wednesday morning. The official website of Arizona's Secretary of State has Lesko with 95,499 votes (52.4%) and Tipirneni with 86,771 votes (47.6%). Lesko leads by 8,728 out of 183,118 votes cast. The Arizona Republic called it a glimpse of a coming blue wave and reported that the election results have "triggered new anxiety about the GOP's party leadership, direction and message in the traditionally red-leaning state... Republicans expected Democrats to perform well in the special election, given the anti-Trump mood motivating liberal and independent voters and the heated passions over health care and the more local debate over teacher pay and looming teacher walk-outs, which Republicans are grappling with at the State Capitol. But they were startled that Tipirneni managed to pull off such a strong showing in the deep-red district. Lesko's lackluster performance left Republicans with a sinking feeling as they barrel towards the 2018 cycle. The numbers don't bode well for GOP candidates up and down the ballot." (By the way, the GOP spent over a million dollars in AZ-08 and the Democrats spent... zero.)

And that's not just true in House races, nor just in Arizona. Axios published a poll showing the Democrats' really wretched Senate candidate, Kyrsten Sinema, beating any of the 3 Republican candidates by comfortable margins:




The polling also shows the Democrats winning the Senate races in purple Nevada and blood red Tennessee.

After the AZ-08 swing away from Trump, everyone started talking about how there were so many incumbents who could never survive that kind of swing. True, true... but there's no need to compare apples and oranges. After all, AZ-08 was an open seat where the Republican was forced to retire in a sex scandal. Flesh and blood incumbents will generally be more difficult targets. That said, though, Sabato's Crystal Ball downgraded 10 Republican-held seats from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" and one from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-up." The new toss-up seat is Leonard Lance's in New Jersey, but anyone paying attention has known he's been in trouble all cycle. Here are the Safe to Likely seats:
AZ-06- David Schweikert- R+9
CA-04- Tom McClintock- R+10
CA-22- Devin Nunes- R+8
CO-03- Scott Tipton- R+6
GA-07- Rob Woodall- R+9
MO-02- Ann Wagner- R+8
NC-08- Richard Hudson- R+8
OH-07- Bob Gibbs- R+12
OH-10- Mike Turner- R+4
SC-05- Ralph Norman- R+9
The news was even worse for Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05), David Brat (VA-07) and-- if he even wins his primary-- Dan Donovan (NY-11), all of whose seats went from "Likely Republican to Leans Republican."

Do all of these downgraded Republicans have viable opponents? Schweikert has 4 Democrats running, one of whom, Heather Ross, has raised enough money to run a serious campaign. McClintock has 3 Democrats running and 2, Jessica Morse and Regina Bateson are financially, competitive with him. Nunes is in major trouble and could well end up inside the Trump Regime. He's loaded with right-wing cash ($4,535,099) but the anti-Nunes environment could negate his financial advantage. Tipton has 3 Dems in the race and two-- Diane Mitsch Bush and Karl Hanlon-- have raised into the 6-figures. Woodall has a whole pack of Democrats nipping at his heels and 3 have raised enough money to win. One, David Kim, has outraised Woodall (although with $348,389 in self-funding). Ann Wagner knew she was in trouble and has redoubled her efforts to get Wall Street to underwrite her reelection. She has $3,390,226 in her warchest. The closest any of her 4 Democratic opponents comes in Cort Vanostran's $340,213 (after raising $520,336). In North Carolina Richard Hudson has raised $1,401,578 and the closest any of his 3 Democratic opponents has come is Frank McNeill's $249,023. In Ohio, conservative Democrat Ken Harbaugh has upraised Bob Gibbs $1,128,124 to $581,450 and Michael Turner is in jeopardy from Theresa Gasper. Ralph Norman and Archie Parnell will face off in a rematch in South Carolina. Last year's special election shocked the political world when Norman edged Parnell 45,076 (51%) to 42,341 (48%). It's a pretty red district-- and Trump beat Hillary 57.3% to 38.8%-- but swing-wise it's not impossible for Parnell to turn the beat around in November.

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5 Comments:

At 1:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Analyze numbers and persons and districts all you want. Trump is NOT an anomaly.

He is who his party and voters have been for 50 years, since LBJ signed the "Great Society" lege. The party and electorate are now pure.

He and they are also not anomalous consequences of the utter corruption and degradation of the democrap opposition to the Nazis. Since the democraps always betray their voters, enough of the voters stop voting such that the Nazi minority can and will win whenever the democraps refuse to honor their mandates whenever they get unearned windfalls.

obamanation and the 2009 congress were so awful that congress mas been R since (obamanation's personal charisma and the lack of an overt Nazi candidate in 2012 is probably why we got 4 more years of that pos) AND why trump won.

For the pure Nazis to keep winning, the left and independents need to be so disaffected that most of them stay home. When the democraps fail, they stay home. When the Nazi has some degree of appeal to some of them, they show up.

Until voters decide the democraps and their constant betrayals are to be dispensed with, and/or the current or next Nazi unitary decides it's time to suspend all democracy, this 12-year sinusoidal pattern will repeat.

 
At 1:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

All this means is that the GOP will double down on voter suppression efforts going on all over the nation. When faced with adversity, the "democrats" turn on their best people and blame them for not supporting party hacks. The GOP, on the other hand, is firmly in the campw which believes that winning isn't everything, it's THE ONLY THING. To the winner belongs the spoils, and all's fair in love, war, and political elections.

Now remember which face of the corporatist party has been the most successful since 1980.

 
At 2:47 PM, Blogger SipSip Titimo said...

Gotta love me some “anonymous” Russian troll bot

 
At 3:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Says the Hillbot nickel-chaser SipTit SipTit.

To all of those who believe that reclaiming the "democratic" Party from within is a good idea, they might be interested in knowing that a similar battle is taking place in the Republican Party:

"Last week, the Niskanen Center’s Jerry Taylor, a prominent NTR, wrote a somewhat plaintive piece drawing these questions together: Whither Never Trump?"

[snip]

"...Taylor concludes that NTRs should stay in the Republican Party and work to reform it. “The GOP will likely stay on its present course until it is decisively defeated in a national election,” he says. “What happens next will depend on whether there are dissidents in the party with a will to fight.”

Now WHERE have we heard THAT BS before?

"I think Taylor gets this wrong. The only way to change a party is to crush it."

Which is what I and others have been saying about "democrats".

"Taylor acknowledges that changing the GOP from the inside will be a heavy lift, but cites some examples of it happening in the past: thanks to vigorous internal advocacy and organization, the party moved from pro-choice to pro-life, pro-immigration to anti-immigration, pro-safety-net to anti-entitlement.

"The problem is, all Taylor’s examples are of the GOP getting more reactionary over time...Taylor can’t conjure a single example of the party getting less extreme due to internal pressures."

As it appears with the "democrats" of the DxCC doing all they can to prevent progressive change. Back to the article quotes:

[snip]

"The GOP will only change when white-grievance politics is consistently rejected at the ballot box, as it is in California. Only if that happens will the party be open to change...And if the party wants to change..."

Never-Trump Republicans face an obvious choice. They’re not going to like it.
-David Roberts, VOX Apr 27, 2018

Sic Semper Democratus

 
At 9:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

White-grievance politics. Well said.

What the democraps want is not to change themselves. They'll never change anything that endangers their pipeline to the money and place at the power table.
What they want to do is find a plausible lie to tell the electorate such that they can get some of them to show up.
You can say the same for analogous Nazi party insurgencies, like the baggers, which was a fundie racist overreaction to having a black in the wh. The R party played the fundie racists opportunistically because they got a few more Nazis to show up when their candidates were uninspiring. In doing so, the party allowed itself to become a little more racist, southern and more white(male)-grievance. The party is now, for all intents and purposes, pure. But the racist, southern, white(male)-grievance is even more a minority than before. Therefore they are facing an anti-red wave... for now. They know this.

What the Nazis also know, and the democraps won't admit is that they also know that once they get their unearned windfall in 2018 an maybe 2020, they'll HAVE to betray it AGAIN because their money won't allow them to address their mandates. So, inevitably, they'll be facing irrelevancy again in 2022 and beyond... until the next total sewage fire on the Nazi side... provided we still pretend to do elections by then.

 

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