Crucial Special Elections In New York Tomorrow For Control Of The State Senate... And Then There's Colorado Springs

The real bad guy in New York politics-- Simcha Felder (fake Democrat)

Conservatives know the gig is up once the big blue wave sweeps dozens of Republicans out of Congress in November. Or is it? As we mentioned yesterday, there are forces on the right, trying-- trying hard-- to put together an effective governing coalition of mainstream conservatives-- from both parties-- to run the show in November with a corrupt conservative Speaker (former New Dem chieftain Joe Crowley) and a motley crew of DCCC candidates from the New Dem and Blue Dog coalitions from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party and whichever non-fascist Republicans are left. Perhaps you've noticed, for example, that Alabama Senator Doug Jones and Pennsylvania Blue Dog "Collin" Lamb (as Pelosi fondly calls him) have been voting with the GOP. No? Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Lets look at New York state for a recent example. Although New York is a blue state, with a statewide PVI of D+12 (tied with California, Maryland and Massachusetts) and although Hillary beat Trumpanzee 4,556,124 (59%) to 2,819,534 (36.5%) and although there are 103 Democrats in the state Assembly, enough conservative Democrats caucus with the Republicans in the state Senate to give the GOP control of that body. As the New York Times explained over the weekend the intense scrutiny for a seemingly obscure seat is the result of a fragile deal that was recently brokered in which a group of breakaway Democrats who had long shared power with Senate Republicans agreed to return to the Democratic fold. That collaboration had helped give Republicans control of the Senate, despite Democrats holding a numerical majority, until early April, when the so-called Independent Democratic Conference agreed to return to the mainstream fold. The deal gave the Democrats a chance to sweep the Legislature and governor’s office. There was just one hitch: two Senate seats that had previously been occupied by Democrats will be decided on Tuesday in special elections." That's tomorrow.

The Democratic shitheads from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party have kept governing power out of the hands of the Democrats-- with Cuomo's connivance-- for 7 years. A week ago the Democrats "welcomed" back 8 of the shitheads. Senate District 37 in eastern Westchester is the pivotal seat. It was Democrat George Lattimer's old seat when he beat a Trumpist for County Executive and it pits Assemblywoman Shelley Mayer (D) against Julie Killian (R), a former member of the Rye City Council. The 2 to 1 Democratic registration advantage favors Mayer. City&State New York took a solid shot at explaining tomorrow's 2 Seante special elections. "While New York state political observers are captivated by the drama over a deal between state Senate Minority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins and Independent Democratic Conference Leader Jeff Klein to reunify Democrats in the state Senate, control of the chamber may actually be determined by the outcome of a special election in Westchester.

The suburban Senate seat has been a swing district. Republican Bob Cohen lost narrowly to Democratic incumbent Suzi Oppenheimer in 2010 and to Latimer in 2012. Westchester County was previously led by Republican Rob Astorino, who launched an unsuccessful gubernatorial bid in 2014 and was defeated by Latimer in an upset victory in 2017.

Jeanne Zaino, a professor of political science at Iona College, said that the race between Mayer and Killian is closer than many observers had expected given the advantage Democrats have in enthusiasm. Zaino noted that one of Killian’s strategies has been to tie Mayer to the aura of corruption that permeates Albany. Mayer was chief counsel to state Senate Democrats from 2007 to 2011, during which time the Senate Democratic leaders were Malcolm Smith and John Sampson, who were later convicted of corruption in separate cases.

“Killian is trying to pitch Mayer as the incumbent, if you will, and the insider, and painting herself more as the underdog and the outsider,” Zaino said, noting that dissatisfaction with the political establishment was an important theme in the 2016 presidential election.

Michael Lawler, Killian’s campaign manager, said that corruption in Albany is an important electioni issue, and that voters want to ensure that one party doesn't have full control of the state.

“You have a Democratic governor and a Democratic state Assembly, and so having a Republican majority in the state Senate to provide balance in state government is important,” Lawler said. “I think a lot of people want to ensure that one-party rule in New York state doesn't happen.”

However, the desire to see a balanced government may be outmatched by the strong Democratic headwinds going into the 2018 midterms, both in New York and nationally. President Donald Trump is deeply unpopular in New York state, and recent races-- including in Westchester-- have seen a surge in Democratic enthusiasm.

Zaino said that when she did polling in the 2017 race between Latimer and Astorino, she found that 4 in 10 voters said that Trump would be a factor when making their decision about who to vote for in the county executive race. That dynamic was continuing to play out in the race between Mayer and Killian, she said, as Westchester residents often want to talk about national politics in conjunction with this race.

The interest in national politics has led to an unusual level of voter and activist engagement for a local special election. Doug Forand, a spokesman for Mayer’s campaign, said that the campaign was sending out 100 volunteers each weekend to canvass.

“I've never seen the kind of volunteer effort that is coming through for this race,” he said. Forand conceded that the campaign would have to work to ensure strong turnout, as voter participation is generally low in special elections. However, he remained optimistic that Democrats and independents would vote for Mayer because “they're so upset about what's happening nationally.”

But Lawler argued that voters would be more concerned with district-specific issues than with national politics when voting.

“I think voters are very concerned about what's going on locally and in New York state, and those are the issues that we're focused on, and that Julie's been addressing every day since getting in the race,” he said. “The political climate is certainly against Republicans at the moment, but Julie is defying that.”

Even as Democrats generally emphasize national politics, Mayer has campaigned on the district’s specific issues-- including the opioid epidemic, taxes and gun control-- to woo local voters. Meanwhile, independent expenditure groups have poured money into the race, including charter school and education reform supporters backing Killian. Both candidates have peppered local media with ads.

While Trump has indirectly influenced the race, other major political players have gotten directly involved. Cuomo has endorsed and held a rally and a fundraiser on behalf of Mayer, and former Gov. George Pataki is supporting Killian. Since the race may determine party control in the state, big dollars and big names are flooding the district.

The IDC reunification deal might harm Mayer, as it would take away her argument to turn out Democratic voters that she must win for the IDC to return to the fold. But Democrats still need to hold her seat to gain the majority. Her campaign argues that, thanks to the IDC agreement, she can now point to a greater likelihood of actually being in the majority and having the power to get legislation passed.

“People vote much more on the individual than they do based on the insider, macro political battles that are going on,” Forand said. “I think it's good for what Shelley would be able to achieve as a senator, and I think that's going to be great for her in November.”

Lawler agreed that the reunification announcement will not have an effect on the race’s outcome. “Ultimately, voters in this district are not going to be swayed by the machinations of the Albany power brokers,” Lawler said. “They're going to be swayed by who is best suited to address the issues and concerns of the community here.”

Lawrence Levy, executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, said that how suburban Westchester residents vote could even be an indicator of state or even national headwinds.

“What happens in this district not only may determine control of state government, which is important enough,” Levy said. “The performance of these swing suburban voters could serve as a bellwether for the political direction of the entire country.”

UPDATE: Meanwhile, In Colorado Today...

And something very special happened in Colorado today. The 5th congressional district-- primarily El Paso County-- is the reddest district in the state (R+14). It's an evangelical hellhole centered around Colorado Springs. Obama did poorly both tines he ran and in 2016 Trump, a great ethical and religious figure, crush Hillary 57.2% to 33.2%. Hallelujah! Right-wing crackpot-- and incumbent-- Doug Lamborn, was knocked off the ballot today by the state Supreme Court. There are 4 other Republicans on the ballot, two of whom, state Senator Owen Hill and El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn, have been running serious primary campaigns, and three Democrats are vying to get on the ballot, one of whom, Stephany Rose Spaulding, has relatively serious campaign.

Just hours after the Supreme Court decision, the Denver Post reported that "While the decision-- that Lamborn’s re-election campaign improperly gathered voters’ signatures to land a spot on the ticket-- is unlikely to mean his 5th Congressional District seat leaves GOP hands, it injects the very real prospect that a fresh face will take over after years of unsuccessful challenges to Lamborn’s reign." Lamborn says he'll challenge the decision, presumably in a federal court.