Saturday, April 07, 2018

Another Sign Of A Wave Getting Ready To Sweep Republicans Out Of Congress


David Wasserman and the Cook Report don’t go out on any limbs… and they’re usually at least a month behind in their reporting. So… when They call a district lean Democrat, in the real world, you can mark it top as Solid, solid, solid Democrat times 10. On Friday Wasserman jiggered 13 seats, all in a blue direction. He was leaning heavily on this:
[I]n a reversal from the 2014 midterms, Democrats enjoy a wide voter enthusiasm gap. According to a new CNN/SSRS survey, 51 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaners said they were "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic about voting in November compared to 36 percent of Republicans/GOP leaners. Young voters, Trump's weakest age segment, also express far more interest in casting ballots than they did four years ago.

This enthusiasm gap has been on display in off-year and special elections all cycle, including last month in Pennsylvania's 18th CD, where Democrat Conor Lamb won a district Trump had carried by over 19 points. Despite two personal visits from Trump and a robust field program orchestrated by the GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund, turnout as a share of 2016 was still seven points higher in Democratic-leaning Allegheny County than it was in GOP-leaning Westmoreland County.

Retirements are also aiding House Democrats' path to a majority. There are 36 districts where Republicans not running for reelection in 2016, including 12 at serious risk of falling to Democrats (Lean Republican or more vulnerable). Only 18 Democrats are exiting, and just four represent seats at serious risk of falling to the GOP. Additionally, Democrats are competitive in an August 7 special election in Ohio's 12th CD to replace GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi, who resigned in January.
But, remember, Wasserman is 100%-- if there was something more than 100%, he’d be that-- a creature of the Beltway establishment. When he says “boo,” he’s just parroting what the DCCC and NRCC are saying. Take for example this typically obtuse-- moronic, actually-- paragraph in his laughable analysis, in which he bemoans the loss of the shit DCCC candidates to candidates backed by voters in primaries. In Wasserman’s sad little Beltway universe, when primary voters pick a non-establishment candidate, the world is falling apart. (And keep in mind, when someone like Wasserman says “Democrats,” he doesn’t mean actual Democrats, he means organizations like the DCCC, DSCC and DNC). Look how he moans over losers:
Primaries have already proven difficult for Democrats to control: some of their most highly touted, widely endorsed candidates are falling flat with actual primary voters. Kelly Mazeski (IL-06), Alex Triantaphyllis (TX-07), Jay Hulings (TX-23) and Ed Meier (TX-32) all raised more money than their opponents but lost their primaries to candidates with stronger grassroots appeal. And only two of 50 states have held their primaries so far, guaranteeing more surprises to come.
OK, so here are the 13 ratings changes. Each with a PVI:
CA-21: Valadao (R)- Likely R to Lean R (PVI: D+5)
IA-02: Loebsack (D)- Likely D to Solid D (PVI: D+1)
NV-03: OPEN (Rosen) (D)-Toss Up to Lean D (PVI: R+2)
NV-04: OPEN (Kihuen) (D)- Lean D to Likely D (PVI: D+3)
NJ-03: Tom MacArthur (R)- Likely R to Lean R (PVI= R+2)
NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer (D)- Lean D to Likely D (PVI: R+3)
NY-18: Sean Patrick Maloney (D)- Likely D to Solid D (PVI: R+1)
NC-09: Robert Pittenger (R)- Likely R to Lean R (PVI: R+8)
OH-10: Mike Turner (R)- Solid R to Likely R (PVI: R+4)
WA-03: Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)- Solid R to Likely R (PVI: R+4)
WA-05: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)- Likely R to Lean R (PVI: R+8)
WI-07: Sean Duffy (R)- Solid R to Likely R (PVI: R+8)
WV-03: OPEN (Jenkins) (R)- Solid R to Likely R (PVI: R+23)
Right now Wasserman has 21 seats that are currently occupied by Republicans in the toss-up category. Wasserman is notorious for labeling as toss-ups Republican seats that are almost surely going Democratic. This year these are very flippable seats and by November even Wasserman will have changed them to lean of likely Dem:
CA-10 Jeff Denham
CA-25 Steve Knight
CA-48- Dana Rohrabacher
CO-06- Mike Coffman
FL-26- Carlos Curbelo
IA-01- Rod Blum
IL-06- Peter Roskam
IL-12- Mike Bost
MI-11- Open (Trott)
MN-02- Jason Lewis
MI-03- Erik Paulsen
NE-02- Don Bacon
NJ-07- Leonard Lance
NJ-11- Open (Frelinghuysen)
NY-19- John Faso
NY-22- Claudia Tenney
PA-01- Brian Fitzpatrick
PA-17- Keith Rothfus
TX-07- John Culberson
VA-10- Barbara Comstock
WA-08- Open (Reichert)

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At 12:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

We'll see how many of these Blue pickups happen once the GOP gets done counting the votes.


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