Another Republican Congressman Bites The Dust-- Is Ryan Costello The First NRA Parkland Casualty?

Paul Ryan's toxicity would have sunk Ryan Costello

When Pennsylvania's Supreme Court ungerrymandered the state's congressional districts, it looked like curtains for Ryan Costello. His weirdly drawn district (PA-06) went from an R+2 PVI (a swing district that would be very difficult to hold in a wave election) to a more compact district with the same number (PA-06) but very different political boundaries and a D+2 PVI. In 2016 it went very narrowly for Clinton (one point). Under these new boundaries, which now include bright blue Reading, it would have gone to her by 9 points.

Costello served on the Chester County Board of Commissioners before being elected to Congress in 2014 when Republican Jim Gerlach retired. He's considered a mainstream conservative but, coupled with the new district lines, his "A" rating from the NRA and the disdain for Trump and Paul Ryan in his district made his reelection look very sketchy for 2018.

Costello's been whining about the unfairness of the judges who ungerrymandered the state and has encouraged the state legislature of impeach them. Last week he filed the necessary petitions to get on the ballot in November but 3 days later City&State Pennsylvania broke the news that Costello is retiring from Congress, the 39th GOP House member to flee the Trumpified party.

Despite filing petitions on Tuesday to run for another term, four Republican sources said Costello indicated at a recent meeting with state and local GOP officials that he intends to drop out of the race in the weeks before the May Primary. The sources all spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitive nature of the meeting.

Costello reportedly met with state party chair Val DiGiorgio, former 6th District Congressman Jim Gerlach and several other top Republicans early Friday. According to sources, he indicated that he intended to seek a job in the private sector rather than face a costly reelection fight.

...Some had speculated that Costello would drop out after the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear the GOP challenge to the state’s new congressional districts. Many observers say the new Sixth District, in the highly competitive Philadelphia suburbs, is even more favorable for Democratic candidates-- last month, Costello called for the impeachment of the state Supreme Court Justices involved in that decision. A bruising Republican loss in this month’s PA-18 special election also sent shockwaves across the national GOP landscape and is generally seen as an ill omen for upcoming midterms across the country.

If true, Costello’s decision not to run would put suburban Republicans in a tight spot. Despite his apparent vulnerability, local party leadership are short on alternative candidates with strong name recognition.

Recently, county-level Republicans told reporters they were still scouting possible replacement candidates. But as the petition deadline passed, only local lawyer Greg McCauley had filed signatures to run as a Republican.

The DCCC and EMILY's List manufactured a candidate in their factory at 430 S. Capitol St. for the race last year, Chrissy Houlahan, who-- despite running a company that manufactured shoes in a Chinese sweatshop, is a shoe-in for Congress now. This morning, in fact, Roll Call changed their November rating of the PA-06 race from Tilts Democratic to Likely Democratic. 

Remember, the Lake Research poll of 30 swing districts (including PA-06) from last week found that Democrats currently lead by 11 points on the generic ballot for Congress, with Democrats receiving 46% of the vote, Republicans receiving 35%, and 17% undecided. There is a clear enthusiasm gap, with 38% of voters strongly supporting the Democratic candidate but only 27% of voters saying the same for the Republican candidate. Trump is deeply unpopular in these districts, with just 36% of voters rating him as doing an excellent or good job, compared with 64% of voters who give him a just fair or poor rating.

And although Ryan Costello is a complete rubber stamp for Paul Ryan, he got some especially troubling news when his constituents were polled about their feelings for Paul Ryan last December. PA-06 voters-- the old redder PA-06-- were among the most anti-Paul Ryan voters in any district held by a Republican across the country. At the time-- that's about 3 months ago-- Trump's disapproval in the district was 52%. Paul Ryan's disapproval was a startling 70%!