Wave Is Comin'-- And There Are Some Messy Races Out There

When I talk about Beltway pundits and prognosticators being "conservative," I don't mean they're Republicans or Blue Dogs or partisan at all. It's more like dressing the way people dressed in the '50s-- although it's not that either. It's being overly cautious and always being a follower instead of a leader. I used to say that the only time the Cook Report was worth reading was on the day after election day. That was unkind and an exaggeration. In fact, Charlie Cook himself has been relatively on top of it this cycle. He's certainly been insistent that the Big Blue Wave is coming and that nothing is likely to stop it. His column at the NationalJournal Thursday noted that the only real hope for Republicans and [the honorable Señor Trumpanzee] is if the economy keeps growing and they get credit for it.

He-- like anyone to the left of Alex Jones-- puts a lot of credence in the mammoth swings away from the GOP in dozens of local special elections since people figured out what the real Trump story is... and started seeing the Republican Party as a little more than a gutless pack of flatfooted enablers. It's not just the 35 state legislative seats they're down but also that though Señor T's "job-approval ratings have ticked up a couple of points to 40 percent... that is still by far the lowest of any president a year into his first term and 10 points short of the number where past White House occupants have managed to prevent midterm-election losses. The Democratic advantage in national generic-ballot test polls is still at about a half-dozen points, half of where it was a couple of months ago but still very much in danger territory for the GOP."

Private polling from both parties shows some pretty grisly numbers in individual states and districts. Democratic candidate recruiting in House races is going spectacularly well-- in fact, some worry it’s gone too well, with too many contested primaries. Fundraising for Democratic challengers is going very well (and you should ignore Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee fundraising numbers, which are some of the most irrelevant midterm indicators in all of American politics). All of these signs support the very clear historic pattern of midterm-election losses for the party in power.

A disclaimer is necessary at this point: The election is 271 days away, so things can certainly change, but that is precisely the point-- things would have to change for the GOP to hang on to their majority. As of now, I’d put the odds of Democrats winning a House majority at about 60 percent, and winning the Senate a much lower 25 to 35 percent.

...[T]he view of the economy is up, and Trump’s numbers are up a bit, but the GOP is still in trouble. For now, the wave still appears to be coming.

Cook mentioned in passing that "Democratic candidate recruiting in House races is going spectacularly well-- in fact, some worry it’s gone too well, with too many contested primaries." Too many contested primaries? Sure, the Democrats aren't defending too many seats-- but the Republicans are. Very few Republican incumbents have contested primaries, although the seats where incumbents have fled for the hills do have primaries, even if--- at least in swing districts-- they're largely between 2nd and 3rd tier candidates, 1st rate candidates aware of the low odds in a wave year of winning in swing districts. In safe red seats, on the other hand, competition between Republicans is fierce. So in TX-05, where Jeb Hensarling in retiring to work at a Wall Street lobbyist (PVI is R+16), in TN-02 where John Duncan is leaving (PVI is R+20), in TN-06 where Diane Black is running for governor (PVI is R+24), and in AZ-08, where Trent Franks was virtually kicked out of Congress (PVI is R+13), the GOP primaries like as wild as the Democratic primaries in swing districts:

• AZ-08- 13 Republicans, but too soon to get a read on fundraising
• TN-02- 7 Republicans, 3 already raising 6 digits
• TN-06- 4 Republicans, 2 in 6 digits
• TX-05- 9 Republicans, 3 in 6 digits

It's like swingy Orange County, California, which is probably where Cook was thinking about:

• CA-49- 5 Democrats, 3 in 7 digits, and 5 Republicans
• CA-48- 9 Democrats, 5 in 6 or 7 digits, and 2 Republicans and about to possibly see a 3rd
• CA-45- 7 Democrats, 6 in 6 digits
• CA-39- 8 Democsrats, 5 in 6 or 7 digits, and 4 Republicans

And something hilarious: yesterday's L.A. Times mentioned psychotic neo-Nazi blogger, Mike Cernovich, a prominent Putinist on the fringes, is "considering a bid for Congress" against Rohrabacher in CA-48 and the other lunatic Republican and the 9 Democrats. So, Charlie, don't blame all the wild primaries on Democrats. You don't remember Cernovich? He was the one who propagated the Russia-invented Pizza-gate conspiracy theory (Hillary offering underage prostitutes out of the basement a DC pizzeria (which didn't have a basement). Another Trumpist moron, Edgar Maddison Welch, a 28-year-old man from North Carolina, took Cernovich seriously and shot up the pizzeria with an AR-15 assault rifle. Welch stands by the story but hasn't;'t been asked to join the Trump cabinet (yet) and isn't running for Congress, perhaps because he's serving 4 years in prison. Neither Alex Jones nor Cernovich was arrested., but for their role, but Michael Flynn Jr and his father were hauled into Mueller's office for their roles in the case.

Cernovich says he may not run against Rohrabacher but instead run against Paul Cook, whose district is nowhere near Cernovich's home in Laguna Niguel. Since Cernovich is certifiably insane, there's no telling what he'll actually do, although, nothing is the most likely for this silly publicity hound.

“Can I take on the Republican Party machine? Get real. No. Zero percent,” said Cernovich, who is registered as an independent. “But if there are 10 people running in the primary and the establishment is split among them, I’m competitive in a 10-way knife fight. Then we’re in the game.”

Cook, who has served three terms, raised less money than a Democratic challenger last quarter and had $828,000 in the bank at the start of the year.

In a follow-up tweet, Cernovich said running for Congress would be “utterly taxing emotionally and financially” and that he would only run if “there’s a play to win.”

Cernovich was supposed to headline last year’s “Free Speech Week” in Berkeley before plans fell apart, and is said to be attempting to buy defunct website Gawker.