Friday, February 02, 2018

Let's Watch 2 Friday Night Videos

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The first video is the first TV ad for the Chicagoland district (IL-03) by progressive reformer Marie Newman, the Democrat working to unseat Blue Dog Dan Lipinski, one of the most pro-Trump Democrats in Congress. It's pretty self evident what Marie is doing to create a plausible narrative to replace Lipinski. Recent polling shows that if the messaging in the video gets out to voters in the district, Lipinski will be defeated. Blue America endorsed Newman over a year ago and we have been imploring progressives to contribute to her campaign. See that thermometer a couple of paragraphs down? You can use that to contribute to her campaign. Meanwhile Lipinski's labor support is finally starting to crumble. The SEIU dumped him today and the teachers unions and nurses unions will be likely to be next. In the end he'll probably wind up with nothing but the Republican-oriented building trades unions.




The second video (down the page) isn't an ad. It's a live video shot by an independent group, Save Our Healthcare. Cathy McMorris Rodgers is a big deal in Washington-- perhaps these days, less so in Eastern Washington, which is preparing to defeat her and replace her with Lisa Brown, the former majority leader of the state Senate and end-Chancellor of Washington State University. As Joel Connelly explained on Wednesday for Seatle PI readers, this district, usually just ceded two the gOP without a fight, is going to be one of those ground-zero congressional districts in November-- even if no one has alerted Pelosi and her DCCC yet. "'Follow the money!' is a rule of American politics, wrote Connelly, "and in 2018 the path of political dollars is leading to the Inland Empire-- Spokane and Eastern Washington. The latest Federal Election Commission campaign money filings show a donnybrook shaping up between Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), a Trump backer and member of the House Republican leadership, and her Democratic challenger Lisa Brown. The advantage belongs to the incumbent. At year's end, McMorris Rodgers had $1.069 million in the bank, compared to $450,933 for Brown. McMorris Rodgers took in $587,542 in the last quarter of 2017, while Brown raised $383,871."

Goal ThermometerIn a "normal" year Connelly would be correct. The advantage would be McMorris Rodger's, but this isn't a "normal" year. We're going into a wave election-- an anti-Trump, anti-Republican wave election. Being member of Paul Ryan's inner circle is toxic this year. But more important is some research I've done into wave elections. It shows in both Democratic weaves (like 2006) and Republican waves (like 2010), money doesn't determine who has the advantage, Incumbents as whose part the wave is aimed at, can spent five times more than the challengers are still lose. The challenger does need to have enough money to get her message out effectively-- and Brown is certainly doing that. Outspending her isn't going to save McMorris Rodgers. Base enthusiasm means more than dollars and cents this cycle. And Brown has it; McMorris doesn't.
The 5th Congressional District of Eastern Washington hasn't had a Democratic member of Congress since House Speaker Tom Foley was narrowly upset in 1994. Donald Trump carried the district in 2016, while McMorris Rodger was reelected by a 60-40 margin.

But the Democratic Party is coming back to life, witness turnout of 459 people at a Spokane training session for Brown earlier this month.

The reason is Donald Trump. McMorris Rodgers endorsed him during a May, 2016, stopover in Spokane, and has since welcomed him at appearances before Republican colleagues in Washington, D.C.

The first hint of opposition came at a 2017 Martin Luther King Day ceremony in Spokane, where McMorris Rodgers was greeted with chants of "Save Our Health Care."



Of the $383,871 raised by Brown, $348,786 or 90 percent came from 2, 389 individual donors, three quarters of them from Eastern Washington. (Brown had a fundraiser in Seattle earlier this month, with another scheduled for a Belltown condo this weekend.)

By contrast, of the $587,542 raised by McMorris Rodgers, $264,616 or 45 percent came from individuals, while political committees (PACs) gave $199,500 to the incumbent. Transfers from authorized accounts made up the balance.

The McMorris Rodgers campaign dispersed $250,622 during the last quarter of 2017, although the election is not until November of 2018.

Brown is an educator, former majority leader in the Washington State Senate and until recently was chancellor of Washington State University-Spokane. She is also spending money, with $130,00 dispersed in the last quarter.

What do all these numbers mean?

A formerly safe Republican congressional district has become competitive, at least according to a recent grading by the authoritative Cook Political Report.

The political action committee of House Speaker Paul Ryan has opened an office in Spokane, to defend McMorris Rodgers. She is chairman of the House Republican Conference, a down-the-line advocate of repealing Obamacare and the Republicans' tax plan.

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2 Comments:

At 6:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Once again, Marie's listed advocacy are all issues that the democraps loathe.

That means Dan is the more honest democrap candidate, though I'd never vote for him.

The fact that democraps' wore leadershit will never allow their hypothetical majority to pass any of those things means Marie is either a liar or a naked opportunist running on stuff that the public wants but will never happen. Like obamanation and Bernie.

If Marie were an independent, I'd vote for her. As it is, I could not.

 
At 6:54 AM, Blogger Garry Gentry said...

Marie could run this ad but would be much better off for 90% of her ads to focus on economic issues. SS, Medicare, Medicaid, higher wages and good jobs, Don't run this kind of Identity political ads except a few and very little Anti-Trump. Trump will make that case himself.

 

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