House Republicans Talking About Winning Back The House In 2022

The Beltway prognosticators never understand the power of a wave as it forms. Never. They always get it wrong. That's because they've got their heads up each others' asses... inside the Beltway. But the Republicans who are in the wave's path this cycle sure understand what's coming, which explains why so many powerful-- albeit demoralized-- senior Republicans have raised the white flag and bowed out already. Let's see... House Financial Services Committee chair Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), House Science Committee chair Lamar Smith (R-TX), House Transportation Committee chairman Bill Shuster (R-PA), House Foreign Affairs Committee chair Ed Royce (R-CA), House Judiciary Committee chair Bob Goodlatte (R-VA), House Ethics Committee chairman Charlie Dent (R-PA), Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property and the Internet chair Darrell Issa (R-CA), House Energy and Commerce Committee chairman emeritus Joe Barton (R-TX), House Subcommittee on Social Security Sam Johnson (R-TX), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), Ways and Means Subcommittee on Select Revenue Measures Dave Reichert (R-WA), Dave Trott (R-MI), Joint Economic Committee chair Pat Tiberi (R-OH), Subcommittee on Aviation chair Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ), Subcommittee on Terrorism chair Ted Poe (R-TX), Tim Murphy (R-PA), Lynn Jenkins (R-KS), House Trabsportation Committee vice chair Johnny Duncan (R-TN), Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution chairman Trent Franks (R-AZ), Subcommittee on Federal Workforce, U.S. Postal Service and the Census chair Blake Farenthold (R-TX), House Administration Committee chair Gregg Harper (R-MS). That's 21 senior Republicans leaving-- a significant hollowing out of Ryan's leadership team-- and those are the ones who are just flat out retiring. Another dozen are retiring from the House to run for higher office, including Marsha Blackburn and Diane Black of Tennessee, Todd Rokita and Luke Messer of Indiana, Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Jim Renacci (R-OH), Raul Labrador (R-ID), Steve Pearce (R-NM), Kristi Noem (R-SD), Lou Barletta (R-PA), Martha McSally (R-AZ), and Evan Jenkins (R-WV).

Yesterday, Michael Scherer of the Washington Post referred to that as "a raft of retirements" and also pointed to "difficulty recruiting candidates and President Trump’s continuing pattern of throwing his party off message" as reasons prompting "new alarm among Republicans that they could be facing a Democratic electoral wave in November."

The concern has grown so acute that Trump received what one congressional aide described as a "sobering" slide presentation about the difficult midterm landscape at Camp David last weekend, leading the president to pledge a robust schedule of fundraising and campaign travel in the coming months.

But the trends have continued, and perhaps worsened, since that briefing, with two more prominent Republican House members announcing plans to retire from vulnerable seats and a would-be recruit begging off a Senate challenge to Democrat Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota despite pressure from Trump to run.

Meanwhile, Trumpist lunatic Corey Lewandowski-- who, reportedly, will be interviewed by Nunes' foolish and obstructionist House committee this week-- was on John Catsimatidis' New York radio show (AM 970) yesterday-- audio above-- admitting that Trump and Republicans are "in trouble" when the Democrats retake the House in November. "The real concern right now," he said, "is the Democrats are exceptionally motivated to run a campaign against this president. And if that's the case, they may have some good opportunities in front of them in the 2018 cycle... Their goal is to first and foremost stop the president’s agenda. And, I think, their secondary goal is to file articles of impeachment against this president, which are completely unfounded.”

So who will be the next Republican to announce retirement? Ryan says he ("and his wife") will make up their minds in the coming months, but it is completely unlikely, given the polling-- which shows that WI-01 independents (40% of his districts' voters) have turned against him-- that Ryan will run again and allow himself to be beaten by a union iron worker (known all over the internet as "IronStache"). One trusted Republican House staffer told me (on condition of anonymity) that up-coming or potential retirements are one of the main topics members and their staffs talk about and that they see Trump as "a ball and chain around the legs of every member" in districts where independent voters are the key to elections. He told me that "even incumbents in districts with PVIs above R+5 could be in trouble this year... Trump has a loyal following but it's a 2 headed sword for us. If we please them, we lose independents and if we make a play for independents, the Trump supporters could turn against us or sit out the election... Trump is the most divisive party leader in history... I've been hearing people talking about winning back Congress in 2022. It's that bad. And it's not going to get better; it's going to get worse."