Virginia Tea Leaves

Democrats need more candidates like Randy Bryce-- everywhere

People forget the nature of a tsunami in politics. When the wave builds enough momentum, nothing can stand in its way. Candidates' money doesn't matter; quality of candidates won't matter. Just revulsion. And that's what 2018 is shaping up to be. A new Washington Post/ABC News poll released Monday morning shows the biggest margin in the generic match-up in over a decade. If the polling is correct-- and it has been corroborated by virtually every poll this year (including private GOP polls)-- the Republicans won't just lose the 2 dozen seats the Democrats need to win back control of the House, the Republicans could be on the path to lose-- despite years of gerrymandering as many as 50 seats, including Paul Ryan's in Wisconsin.

Enthusiasm for Democrats is minimal but dislike of Republicans in mammoth. Here's the bottom line though:

The Post reported that the 51% to 40% margin for the Democrats is "the biggest spread in a Post-ABC survey since October 2006, just weeks before a midterm in which Democrats won back control of the House and Senate amid deep dissatisfaction with then-President George W. Bush and the Iraq War. Yesterday's poll shows 65% of voters lack confidence in Trump "to make the right decisions for the country's future," which is pretty dismal-- unless you compare it to the lack of confidence voters have for congressional Republicans to make the right decisions-- like 21% who are confident against a whopping 76% who are not confident. Democrats aren't going to exploit this the way they should because just 27% are confident in the congressional Democrats and 70% are not. Again, it's all lesser-of-two evils... but the Pelosi and her DCCC are fine with that. It's all they know and it's how they work-- tragically-- in responding to the election cycle. Imagine an election cycle dominated by relative toxicity of party leaders. Who's most hated by the voters-- Pelosi, Ryan or Señor Trumpanzee?

When asked "Which political party, the Democrats or the Republicans, do you think better represents your own personal values?" 46% said Dems and 37% said Republicans. 10% said neither. This is what stale Democratic congressional leadership has brought the Democrats:

It's worth mentioning that half a dozen Democratic candidates have told me in the last couple of weeks that their own House races would be much easier if Pelosi were to announce her retirement because, as much as voters would like to see the last of Ryan, they are not enthusiastic about Pelosi becoming Speaker again-- an advertising theme the Republicans have every intention of exploiting to the max. Expect to see Democratic challengers distancing themselves from Pelosi like never before. She is absolutely toxic. No candidates want her coming to campaign with them in their districts, although Ryan is experiencing a similar reaction from Republicans-- both vulnerable incumbents and challengers.

In a few hours we'll know how this played out today in Virginia, where Ed Gillespie is running on a Trumpist message, sans Trumpanzee, while the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Ralph Northam, is the epitome of the lesser evil candidate. Polling has largely favored Northam, even though the race tightened up in the last week. Yesterday, though, both Quinnipiac and the Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Public Policy released last minute polls that showed Northam back out ahead with comfortable margins. Quinnipiac showed independents breaking for Northam (46-42%) as he pulled away with a 51-42% lead. The Wason polling results were similar: 51-45% for Northam.

Northam’s lead is demographically and regionally broad. He leads among independents by 13 points (51% to 38%) and moderates by 29 points (62% to 33%). He holds significant leads among women, black voters, younger voters, voters with incomes below $50,000, and in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Gillespie leads among white voters and men, but the candidates are statistically tied among voters 45 and older and voters in Southwest-Southside, two normally reliable Republican segments.

Down-ticket, the Democratic candidates continue to lead their Republican rivals. In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Justin Fairfax leads Republican state Sen. Jill Vogel, 50% to 45%. Seeking a second term as attorney general, incumbent Democrat Mark Herring leads John Adams, 49% to 45%.

The entire 100 seat Virginia House of Delegates-- which the GOP holds 66-34-- is up for election. The districts are very gerrymandered against Democrats but Democrats are favored to pick up at least half a dozen seats. Anything more than that would be troubling for the Republicans nationally. There are 17 GOP-held seats that Hillary won and those are the main targets. If the Democrats win 17 seats and take control of the House, Republican nationally will go into a Defcon 1 state of ultimate panic, causing the collapse of Ryan's tax-cuts-for-billionaires bill and at least another dozen congressional retirement announcements. Fingers crossed.