Has Mercer Hired Bannon To Destroy The GOP? Is Trump In On The Deal?

Something tells me that even as Trump was signaling he was satisfied with the deal Patty Murray (D-WA) and Lamar Alexander (R-TN) worked out in regard to funding the Obamacare subsidies Trump had eliminated last week, the Mercer/Bannon wing of the GOP is going bananas. It's a deal intended to stabilize health insurance markets under the Affordable Care Act, funding the subsidies for two years, a step meant to provide short-term certainty to insurance companies. They need the cost-sharing reductions to lower out-of-pocket costs for low-income customers. The Washington Post reported that they plan allows "insurers to offer catastrophic insurance plans to consumers aged 30 and older on ACA exchanges, while maintaining a single risk pool. To speed the approval of 1332 waivers, it would shorten the time period for federal review of state waiver applications, expedite review for states in emergency circumstances and those with waiver proposals that have already been approved for other states, and allow governors to approve state waiver applications rather than requiring state legislative approval. It also would assess the budget impact of any state proposal over the life of the waiver, rather than on an annual basis."

No word from Bannon yet. Presumably he's huddling with the Mercers to work out a response. Monday, Trump was all over the map in regard to the Mercer-Bannon plan to destroy the Republican establishment. In the morning he said he "understood" Bannon's frustration with Republican senators. By afternoon he was on TV saying "Some of the people that he may be looking at, I'm going to see if we talk him out of that." Who, exactly? Certainly not Jeff Flake, who Obama despises. Bannon was in Arizona yesterday with Laura Ingraham to boost the official campaign launch for right-wing crackpot Kelli Ward, one of Flake's primary opponents.

Brent Budowsky predicts that the Mercer-Bannon attempt to purge the Republican Party of mainstream conservatives like Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Roger Wicker (R-MS), Dean Heller (R-NV), Deb Fischer (R-NE) and John Barrasso (R-WY) could backfire. He wonders, like we all do, if "Bannon is fronting for Trump or acting against him. If Bannon does not end his attacks against incumbent GOP senators, we will know that he is colluding with the president, who is dividing Republicans-- and all Americans-- against each other and endangering GOP control of the Senate."

In the 10th month of the Trump presidency, the Republican Congress still has not passed one major piece of legislation proposed by the Republican president, public disapproval of Congress stands at levels that should be alarming to all incumbent Republican senators, and the president and GOP leaders in the House and Senate all suffer from abnormally high levels of disapproval.

Bannon is bidding to become the most powerful Republican in America by seeking to promote primary challengers against key Republicans in Congress, including possible primary challenges against every incumbent Republican senator running for reelection in 2018 except Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX).

While public disapproval of various congressional leadership has historically surged at times, what is different this time is that the president and congressional leaders of his party are so unpopular at the same time. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) and McConnell both suffer from high levels of public disapproval along with Trump and the Republican Congress itself.

Bannon is attempting a wholesale purge of the Republican Party by constantly attacking House and Senate Republican leaders in aggressively ideological and personal terms and actively seeking primary challenges against a large and growing number of Republican incumbents now serving in Washington.

The GOP long ago purged liberal Republicans out of the party. Now, Bannon seeks to purge moderate, centrist, center-right conservatives and bipartisan Republicans out of the party. What kind of Republican Party will be left if Bannon and far-right conservative groups succeed in their attempts to oust even very staunch conservatives, such as Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) and Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY)?

There are various potential outcomes to the Bannon play. Trump may seek to persuade Bannon to end his attempted purge and succeed. Trump may not try to persuade Bannon to end his purge, which should show he has been colluding with Bannon behind the scenes.

If Bannon proceeds with his planned purge, his candidates could be defeated by more moderate or establishment Republicans in primaries. However, there is a very strong chance that Bannon succeeds and his candidates win a succession of primaries against incumbent Republicans, in which case, Bannon could well become the most powerful Republican in America.

Few will publicly admit it, but many key Democrats are privately rooting for Bannon to succeed in his play to purge the Republican Party. With Trump, McConnell, Ryan and the Republican Congress so unpopular with voters at the same time, Democrats have a strong chance to regain control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections.

With Republican Senators potentially facing a surge of ugly and divisive primary challenges, it is now possible to envision a scenario where Senate Democrats have a slim but realistic chance of winning back control of the Senate, a possibility that was unthinkable two months ago.

Remember the 2010 midterms? That year, there was a wave election that brought House Republicans to power, but the GOP nominated fringe, right-wing candidates in key Senate races, including Nevada and Delaware, who were defeated by Democrats.

Remember the 2012 Senate elections? Democrats had to defend far more seats than Republicans are trying to do in 2018, and back then, the GOP nominated fringe candidates in Missouri and Indiana, a mistake that enabled Democrats to prolong their control.

It is possible that in 2018, Democrats win a wave election that gives them control of the House, while Republicans nominate fringe candidates for the Senate that give Democrats a narrow victory to regain control of the Senate as well.

Bannon may or may not end up being the most powerful Republican in America, but what he does in the coming months will probably make him the most important Republican in America.