Can A Democrat Win Back An Old Union Stronghold In Pennsylvania That Has Gone Red?

You're out, bitch-- now go home and stop embarrassing everyone

The Tim Murphy saga started unfolding Wednesday and we mentioned it as part of the coverage of the GOP's latest anti-Choice bill. The initial reports, based on Murphy's own statements to the media, were that he would not run for reelection and then retire from office in January, 2019. After he made that announcement, Paul Ryan announced that, no, Murphy is resigning his seat immediately. That opens up the southwest Pennsylvania district below Pittsburgh (PA-18), which Murphy has held since 2002, for a special election. On the surface it's a very red district. Most of the population lives in the suburbs south of Pittsburgh in Allegheny and Westmoreland counties, with a substantial number of voters in Washington county and a few in rural Greene Co.

Obama lost the district both times he ran, but last year Trump did slightly better than Romney, and Hillary underperformed Obama by almost 3 points. The PVI was R+10 last year and is now R+11. Less known is that there's a residual Democratic registration advantage (to the tunes of 70,000 voters) from when the unions in the area were powerful and could turn out the voters for Democrats. And labor activists would like to give it a try in the special.

I looked at the 3 declared candidates-- Mike Crossey, Pam Iovino and Robert Solomon-- and none of their websites popped out as being all that exciting, although I've been told that Solomon (whose website in a landing page with no issues) was an emergency room doctor and a Berniecrat. Iovino fits the 2018 DCCC formula, non-progressive woman veteran, who describes herself as "a moderate" who volunteered in the Hillary campaign. Crossey is a labor guy, very issues-oriented who backed Hillary in the primary but who, when I spoke with him on the phone yesterday, had very mature policy positions more aligned with Bernie's. The election is likely to be in May, maybe sooner. There will be no primaries; party bosses pick the candidates in a local "convention."

Now there are rumblings that a 36-year old former marine JAG 0fficer, Conor Lamb, well-connected politically and currently an Obama-appointed assistant U.S. attorney for Pennsylvania's Western District, will jump into the race next week. He would have to resign his current job to do so.

Despite Lamb’s credentials as a drug prosecutor, Lamb plans to focus on criminal justice reform and solutions to the region’s opioid crisis.

Lamb comes from a prestigious Pittsburgh Democratic family. He is related to Pittsburgh City Controller Michael Lamb, a strong labor ally in the region and a major player in the Western Pennsylvania Democratic Machine.

Other labor leaders and Democrats are also considering getting into the race.

Other Democrats thinking about jumping in are Matt Smith, president of the Greater Pittsburgh Chamber of Commerce, state Rep. Dan Miller and Westmoreland County Commissioner Ted Kopas. A sleepy little race is about to turn into a three-ring circus.

On the Republican side, state Senator Guy Reschenthaler, a former judge and a Tea Party nut, and state Sen. Kim Ward have declared and there is speculation that state Rep. Rick Saccone will drop out of his race for the U.S. Senate and jump into this one instead.

Murphy, a psychologist, was considered a more or less mainstream Republican, although from his very first race, he ran as an anti-Choice fanatic-- a real crazy person. Which makes the whole mess even messier. I mean the whole thing came out about him telling his young mistress to get an abortion on the same day he voted to take away women's right to have an abortion making him look like... an arch-hypocrite.

There's some question about the truth of Ryan's statement that "This afternoon, I received a letter of resignation from Congressman Tim Murphy, effective October 21. It was Dr. Murphy's decision to move on to the next chapter of his life, and I support it." People with knowledge of what really happened say Murphy begged Ryan to let him try to weather the scandal and then Ryan said he'd have to leave because he made the whole caucus look bad. Murphy left the meeting in Ryan's office on Wednesday evening thinking they'd agreed that he could stay 'til the end of the term, which pissed off Ryan, who then put out a statement saying he had a letter of resignation (that he didn't actually have).

Ryan staffers told him that Murphy staffers had told them that working for Murphy was a hellish proposition of constant abuse and that there will be lots of dirt coming out in the next few weeks about Murphy's and his (female) chief of staff's abusive behavior towards lower level staff members. Politico reported that staffers were publicly berated as "stupid" and "worthless" and forced to walk up stairs instead of taking elevators as punishment for perceived infractions. Murphy was threatened with an ethics investigation if he didn't do exactly what Ryan demanded.

Boss Ryan!