Monday, September 25, 2017

Imagine If The Democratic Party Had More Candidates Like Randy Bryce And Fewer Blue Dogs!


Randy Bryce-- busy raising campaign funds without taking special interest money

A new poll released by CNN yesterday spells some bad news for the Republican Party. The Party's favorability rating among American voters has crated to it's lowest in history. And the congressional party leaders, Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, are widely disliked. Party favorability is now at 29%-- down 13 points from the March poll. The party popularity has never dropped below 30 before.
Overall, 20% of Americans approve of the way Republican leaders in Congress are handling their jobs, while 72% disapprove. That includes just 39% of Republicans who approve of the job GOP leaders are doing.

Republicans are signaling they prefer President Donald Trump's vision for the party, with 79% saying he is taking it in the right direction. A majority of GOP voters -- 53% -- believe Republican leaders in Congress are taking the party in the wrong direction.

That finding comes as approval ratings and favorability ratings for Republican leaders in Congress have dropped. Overall approval of the party's leadership is down to 20%, a new low in CNN polling back to 2008. House Speaker Paul Ryan's favorability has dipped to 32%, a six-point drop since April, while Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell stands at 20% favorability, a seven-point dip since spring.

Both parties will have to grapple with an increasingly unhappy public as nearly six in 10 Americans (59%) say they are angry at both parties, while just 23% say they are not angry at either party. Independents are the most upset, with 68% saying they're angry at both parties-- up 10 points since March. Anger among Republicans has also spiked, with 63% now angry at both parties compared to 38% who said the same in the spring. Among Democrats, anger at both sides is up seven points, to 49%.

...Turning toward next year's midterm elections, Democrats appear to have an enthusiasm advantage as the party tries to win back majority control of the House and Senate. Democrats need to gain 24 seats to retake the House and three in the Senate, though party is facing limited pick-up opportunities there this cycle.

Nearly a quarter of Democrats-- 24 %-- say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting next year, with another 20% saying they are very enthusiastic. Just 14% of Republicans say they are extremely enthusiastic, with another 20% saying they are very enthusiastic about voting.

Democrats also lead in the generic congressional ballot among all Americans by nine percentage points, 50% to 41%, though the midterm electorate traditionally leans more Republican.

Feelings about the Democratic Party are slightly rosier, with 41% holding a favorable view of the party compared to 51% of Americans who say they hold a negative view.
Could the GOP approval ratings go up in time for next year's midterm election? Theoretically, yes. But the GOP has a highly unpopular agenda between now and then and they have a choice between passing legislation most people hate-- like TrumpCare or tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires-- or just accomplishing nothing, the way they have since January. An ABC/Washington Post poll that was also releassed yesterday, indicates that Trump won't be an asset going into the midterms. The public broadly distrusts him on key issues like Korea and feels he's more divisive than he is unifying. Example: 72% of Americans trust the military leaders to handle the Korea situation, while only 37% trust Trump with that job. Meanwhile, Trump's "approval rating is the lowest of any president at eight months in office in polling back 71 years. The public by 66-28 percent says he’s done more to divide than to unite the country, considerably worse than the highest 'divide' scores for his two predecessors, Barack Obama and George W. Bush, both 55 percent. And despite his 'drain the swamp' promise, Americans by 59-39 percent say Trump has not brought needed change to Washington, 6 percentage points more than Obama’s worst rating on this gauge, which came after nearly two years in office."

What does this say about the prospects of the Democrats taking back the House in 2018? Plenty. Although the DCCC is making myriad mistakes in their recruitment-- for example, recruiting corrupt conservative Blue Dogs in districts Bernie won-- it is likely the strong wave election now building will trump DCCC incompetence and venality. There are 25 districts with new PVI rankings that now have scores of R+5 or better (for Democrats) and that have moved in the Democrats' favor (or stayed the same), some in districts the Democrats haven't contested in decades. These are Republican-held seats that could be won by good Democratic challengers if the GOP approvals stay the way they are now or slip further, which is even more likely.
Martha McSally- AZ-02 (R+1 from R+3)
Steve Knight- CA-25 (even from R+3)
Ed Royce- CA-39 (even from R+5)
Mimi Walters- CA-45 (R+3 from R+7)
Dana Rohrabacher- CA-48 (R+4 from R+7)
Darrell Issa- CA-49 (R+1 from R+4)
Mike Coffman- CO-06 (D+2 from D+1)
Mario Diaz-Balart- FL-25 (R+4 from R+5)
Carlos Curbelo- FL-26 (D+6 from R+1)
open- FL-27 (D+5 from R+2)
Pete Roskam- IL-06 (R+2 from R+4)
Kevin Yoder- KS-03 (R+4 from R+6)
open- MI-11 (R+4 from R+4)
Jason Lewis- MN-02 (R+2 from R+2)
Erik Paulsen- MN-03 (D+1 from R+2)
Don Bacon- NE-03 (R+4 from R+4)
Leonard Lance- NJ-07 (R+3 from R+6)
Rodney Frelinghuysen NJ-11 (R+3 from R+6)
Steve Chabot- OH-01 (R+5 from R+6)
Ryan Costello- PA-06 (R+2 from R+2)
Pat Meehan- PA-07 (R+1 from R+2)
Will Hurd- TX-23 (R+1 from R+3)
Pete Sessions- TX-32 (R+5 from R+10)
Barbara Comstock- VA-10 (D+1 from R+2)
open- WA-08 (even from R+1)
Goal ThermometerThat's enough to take the House back and doesn't even include several good targets (below R+5) where movement was slightly red or districts with PVIs above R+6 with huge moves in a Democratic condition. Take WI-01, which was R+3 and is now R+5. That's not in our tally although polling shows Paul Ryan is likely to lose his seat. In fact, Blue America is doing a Green Day signed guitar contest this week and you can help Randy Bryce beat Ryan and win a chance to get the Green Day guitar by contributing any amount to Randy's campaign at the thermometer on the right.

And the quality of candidates makes a difference. Men and women like Randy Bryce (WI-01), Katie Hill (CA-25), Derrick Crowe (TX-21), Doug Applegate (CA-49), Jared Golden (ME-02), Dan Canon (IN-09), Jim Thompson (KS-04) can help even the odds in difficult terrain. While the Democrats are drawing multiple candidates in every district, Republican incumbents are retiring and GOP nominees so far this cycle are generally 3rd and 4th tier candidates. Other candidates made videos as good as this one below... but, unlike Bryce, had nothing to back it up with. The DCCC geniuses, who wrote off WI-01 as "not worth the try" should start paying attention to how someone can win rather than doubling down on their longtime specialty-- how to lose races again and again and again by make the same mistakes over and over.

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