Trump's Loss Will Be Shatteringly Personal-- And Devastating To The GOP Up And Down The Ballot
Still harping on the made-up "fact" that Obama founded ISIS-- which he supposedly walked back last week-- Trump was at an ill-conceived rally in Fairfield, Connecticut Saturday evening, warning voters he'd "never, ever forgive" them if he loses. "I will never, ever forgive the people of Connecticut. I will never forgive the people of Florida. Pennsylvania and Ohio..."
When Trump loses in a jaw-dropping landslide in November-- virtually wiped out, outside the hatred-and-resentment-fueled Deep South-- it will be a very personal defeat. No one will be able to blame conservative ideology or the Republican platform for the massive ass-whoopin' that's coming Trump's way. He is going to be labeled the Ultimate Loser in American History and it's all personal. What the voters are rejecting is Trump himself-- his essence as a human being, his ugly, deformed personality, his unsuitable temperament, and his horrible nature/mental illnesses. By October, the battleground states are going to be Montana, Kansas, Arizona and Georgia, with Trump desperately trying to claw his way back towards a win in South Carolina and Kentucky. He'll be lucky for every electoral vote over 150 he gets-- and if he keeps provoking Ted Cruz, the election's biggest surprise could come in the Texas suburbs of Houston, San Antonio, Dallas and Austin.
Brainwashed Republican primary voters weren't capable of the elementary discernment it takes too recognize Trump as a con man. And now the RNC is setting him up to take the blame for the losses they're looking at in the Senate and House, where Democrats expect to win, not on Hillary's coattails but on the negative coattails Republican incumbents and challengers are riding.
Sunday evening, Colin Diersing, writing for the National Journal enumerated the ways how the Democratic Party is trying to use Trump and Trumpism to sink down ballot Republicans district by district-- TLS: the Trumpanzee Localization Strategy. Democrats in down-ballot races around the country," wrote Diersing, "are positioning themselves to run against a Republican nominee with historically high unfavorable ratings by tying their opponents to Trump. But listen carefully, as each one describes a slightly different version of Trump, drawing out the aspects of the real estate mogul that most clearly link him to the local Republican candidate. Because even when nationalizing an election works to a party’s advantage, politics are still fundamentally local."
In Oregon’s gubernatorial race, Democrats are branding Republican Bud Pierce and Trump as “a pair of out-of-touch millionaires who will leave middle-class families behind.” In Virginia’s 10th District, they’re replaying Trump’s controversial immigration comments next to those of Rep. Barbara Comstock comparing the tracking of packages to tracking of immigrants. And in New Hampshire, Sen. Kelly Ayotte has come under fire for attending a fundraiser with lobbyists from a “Trump-style” university.We asked DuWayne Gregory, Presiding officer of the Suffolk County Legislature and the Democratic Party candidate for the Long Island district along the South Shore currently represented by Trump crony Peter King, how he's highlighting the relationship between the two-- who often bicker like an old married couple-- in his campaign. Gregory has told us that the overwhelming amount of his voter contact is about the issues the people in Nassau and Suffolk counties want to hear about: jobs, an economy that works for everyone not just the rich and well-connected, good schools, a clean environment... But DuWayne did tell us yesterday that "Peter King will have to reconcile with himself and more importantly the voters how he believes Donald Trump is fit to be Commander-in-Chief. The average voter is starting to see the danger of a Donald Trump presidency and will hold anyone accountable for putting politics before the country."
Kelly Ayotte's and her campaign are failing to run away from Trump
The attacks are, in part, a response to growing evidence that many voters view Trump as something of a political anomaly, who is meaningfully different even from Republicans who will support him. To fully benefit from a potential anti-Trump wave, Democrats will have to persuade voters that the same characteristics they dislike in Trump can be found in local Republicans.
...In California’s 10th District, Democrats are utilizing Rep. Jeff Dunham’s personal wealth to link him to Trump, saying he’s “not just a millionaire—he’s a millionaire who supports a dangerous billionaire.”
Some Democrats see LuAnn Bennett’s challenge to Comstock as a model for using a candidate’s past statements on policy as the focus. The campaign launched a site called StopTrumpComstock.com, which declares that “a vote for Comstock is a vote for Trump’s policies.”
Democrats see highlighting specific policy positions as a widely applicable strategy, especially in districts where Trump’s comments on immigration, abortion, or other subjects have given political charge to already tough issues for Republicans.
...Comstock has also been the target of another Democratic strategy: finding local connections for particularly unpopular Trump statements, such as those about the family of Capt. Humayun Khan, who are Virginia residents. Bennett put out a statement tying Trump’s comments to Comstock: “That she continues to support a politician who attacks Virginian military families and is hostile to our Muslim community solely for political gain is abhorrent and reprehensible.”
Occasionally, Trump has injected himself into the campaign, to the delight of local Democrats. In Arizona, where Sen. John McCain faces an unexpectedly competitive race, Democrats are using McCain’s continued support for Trump-- despite personal attacks from the nominee-- to argue that the longtime senator is no longer a “maverick” interested in bipartisanship.
...The need for Democrats to find local connections could always change if voters begin to view simply endorsing Trump as a reflection on a candidate’s character, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said. While her most recent research showed voters still making a clear distinction between Trump and other Republicans, she said his inflammatory statements could eventually push voters to the point where they view anyone supporting Trump as directly implicated.
“As he gets more and more crazy, and as more and more Republicans draw a distinction between themselves, it may leave the ones that haven’t done that more isolated,” Lake said. “What I just don’t know is when voters reach their limit.”
We also asked Paul Clements, a Political Science Professor at Western Michigan University in Kalamazoo and the Democratic candidate running in the district Fred Upton has been roosting on since 1987, if Trump is an issue in southwest Michigan. He told us he spends most of the time talking with voters about the issues that are most important to them like jobs and economic opportunities for their families and communities. Students are struggling with student debt, and Upton voted for the biggest increase in interest rates on student loans in history. Seniors are struggling to get by, and Upton not only blocked Medicare from negotiated drug prices with pharmaceutical companies; he also blocked imports of generic drugs from Canada. Last year he was harassing Planned Parenthood, and now he votes for a bill that ties funding to address the Zika virus to defunding Planned Parenthood, while 65,000 Michiganders depend on Planned Parenthood for health care. But confidence in Trump is no higher in southwest Michigan than in the rest of the country. As Clements told us, "Both Trump and Upton are climate science deniers. They both want to starve funding for education and infrastructure by cutting taxes for millionaires. Neither trust women to make their own health care decisions. Insofar as Trump has an agenda, a vote for Upton is mostly a vote to support it."
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