Saturday, April 09, 2016

New Polling Shows That Not Just Bernie, But Even Hillary Would Beat Paul Ryan If He Steals Trump's Nomination


I know, I know-- Ryan just wants to be a simple House Budget Committee Chairman (on the receiving end of that nice $6,008,853 from the Wall Street banksters he works so hard to accommodate) but... magically, he just happened to survive a tank filled with great whites and starving barracudas to wind up as Speaker of the House. It's the same strategy he's using the guarantee his coronation as a gun-free-zone in Cleveland in 3 little months.

Ryan took his presidential campaign from Israel to Egypt yesterday, while the full force of the actual Republican political establishment manned the walls for his fresh face back here in America. Top Republican politicos are putting odds on his Quicken Loans Arena coronation already.
One of the nation's best-wired Republicans, with an enviable prediction record for this cycle, sees a 60 percent chance of a convention deadlock and a 90 percent chance that delegates turn to Ryan-- ergo, a 54 percent chance that Ryan, who'll start the third week of July as chairman of the Republican National Convention, will end it as the nominee.

"He's the most conservative, least establishment member of the establishment," the Republican source said. "That's what you need to be."

Ryan, who's more calculating and ambitious than he lets on, is running the same playbook he did to become speaker: saying he doesn't want it, that it won't happen. In both cases, the maximum leverage is to not want it-- and to be begged to do it. He and his staff are trying to be as Shermanesque as it gets. Ryan repeated his lack of interest Monday morning in an interview from Israel with radio host Hugh Hewitt.

Of course in this environment, saying you don't want the job is the only way to get it. If he was seen to be angling for it, he'd be stained and disqualified by the current mess.
Not all Republicans, though, see him as "conservative" enough. He's certainly no Ted Cruz and he's not likely to be embraced by the crowd of extremists who have their hearts set on a genuine fanatic. Is that his general election strength though? It's certainly why he can't participate in a primary contest. He's more like Rubio than Cruz or Trump when it comes to comprehensive immigration reform. And he's as avid a "free" trader as Hillary-- at a time when the GOP electorate has come to understand that the trade policies of the Bush and Clinton (and Obama) years are catastrophic for them and their families. Trump and Cruz are against the TPP and now that Bernie has forced Hillary to at least pretend to be against it too, Ryan would stick out as a sore thumb on an issue that is finally being publicly debated.

So-- FINALLY-- the pollsters have come around to understand that, press release or not, Ryan is a candidate. Ryan's not happy about it, but even GOP polling firm Rasmussen has tossed him into the match-ups now. And it isn't just Bernie that would beat him; even Hillary might be able to! "The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that Hillary Clinton tops Ryan 40% to 34% among likely U.S. voters," they wrote but a sizable 22% prefer some other candidate given that matchup... Similarly, Senator Bernie Sanders posts a 41% to 34% win over Ryan, but 20% like another candidate. Five percent (5%) are undecided in both cases."

A closer look at the numbers, however, suggests the danger to Republicans of a brokered convention that denies Donald Trump or Ted Cruz the nomination. Ryan earns GOP support only in the high 50s against both Democrats. If Ryan is the GOP’s choice to run against Clinton, 28% of Republicans opt for someone else. If Sanders is Ryan’s opponent, 24% of GOP voters like another candidate. Twenty-four percent (24%) of GOP voters said last month that they are Very Likely to vote for Trump if he runs as a third-party presidential candidate.

Goal Thermometer Ryan is viewed favorably by 59% of Republican voters. That’s little changed from last October and includes only 27% with a Very Favorable opinion of him. But 30% now share an unfavorable view of the House leader, including 14% with a Very Unfavorable one. Unfavorables are up noticeably from 16% and three percent (3%) last fall. Eleven percent (11%) remain undecided.

Among all voters, Ryan is seen favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 44%. This includes 15% with a Very Favorable view of him and 21% with a Very Unfavorable one. Sixteen percent (16%) are undecided.

...Just over half (51%) of GOP voters oppose a brokered convention and think the party’s nominee should be the candidate who arrives at the convention with the most delegates. Two-out-of-three Republicans (66%) believe delegates should be required to support the candidate they were elected to support.

Ryan is viewed unfavorably by 64% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 30% have a favorable opinion of him; 38% do not, but 21% are not sure.

Voters under 40 prefer Clinton by 20 points over Ryan, while Sanders holds a 34-point lead. Ryan has a slight edge among older voters, although Clinton is the favorite among senior citizens.

The race is close, too, among men, but women give both Democrats a double-digit lead over Ryan.

The speaker holds small leads over Clinton and Sanders among whites but trails by wide margins among blacks and other minority voters.

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