Sunday, March 06, 2016

Republican Senate Incumbents Facing Angry Voters Over Knee-Jerk Obstructionism


We've mentioned that Republican obstructionism over the Supreme Court vacancy could hurt some of the Republican Senate incumbents, particularly Chuck Grassley in Iowa, who the DSCC had originally declared invulnerable. No one thinks he's invulnerable any longer and support is building for progressives Tom Fiegen and Rob Hogg, while the DSCC found themselves a Monsanto-backed corprate shill to get behind. PPP Senate results of surveys in four states bolsters the possibility that the GOP's bitter obstructionism against Obama is something they could pay for very dearly in November.

Tom Jensen from PPP suggests that all four states-- Arizona, Iowa, Missouri and North Carolina, none of which were looked at as possible wins by the vision-free DSCC-- ate becoming competitive because of "voter anger over their Republican senators’ unwillingness to consider a replacement for Antonin Scalia." That McCain, Blunt and Burr already had mediocre approval numbers exacerbates the problem these Republicans are now facing.
Strong majorities of voters in each of these states want the Supreme Court vacancy to be filled this year. It’s a 56/40 spread in favor of filling the seat in Iowa, 56/41 in Arizona and Missouri, and 55/41 in North Carolina. What’s particularly important in the numbers is the strong support for filling the seat among independents-- it’s 60/38 in Missouri, 59/37 in Arizona, 58/38 in Iowa, and 55/38 in North Carolina. Independent voters will be key to determining whether these incumbents sink or swim this fall, and they want the vacancy filled.

What voters especially have a problem with is Senate Republicans saying they’re going to reject President Obama’s nominee for the Supreme Court no matter who it is. Super-majorities of voters in all four of these states-- 69/25 in Arizona, 66/24 in Missouri, 66/25 in North Carolina, and 66/26 in Iowa say that the Senate should at least wait and see who’s put forward before deciding whether to confirm or deny that person. Even Republican voters-- 56/35 in Arizona, 54/38 in North Carolina, 52/37 in Missouri, and 50/39 in Iowa think their Senators are taking far too extreme of a position by saying they won’t approve President Obama’s choice without even knowing who that choice is.

The Supreme Court issue really could make a difference at the ballot box this fall. Voters by a 34 point margin in Arizona and Missouri, a 21 point margin in North Carolina, and a 14 point margin in Iowa say that they’re less likely to vote for their Republican Senators this fall if they refuse to confirm a nominee to the Supreme Court no matter who it is. This is again something where we find the Republican Senators could particularly pay a price with independent voters. Independents in Arizona say 61/18 they’re less likely to vote for John McCain because of this issue, and it’s 55/16 for Richard Burr with them in North Carolina, 55/20 for Roy Blunt with them in Missouri, and 48/24 for Chuck Grassley with them in Iowa.
First Arizona, where McCain is lucky enough to just have to deal with a weak challenge from an especially odious New Dem backbencher, Ann Kirkpatrick:

Second-- Iowa, where Grassley is far more vulnerable than Chuck Schumer and Jon Tester had decided. Hogg or Fiegen could beat him.

Third is Missouri, another state Schumer and Tester were ready to write off:

And last, here are the results from North Carolina, another state with a very weak Republican incumbent, Richard Burr, that Schumer and Tester were perfectly satisfied with ignoring, at least once they failed to persuade their favorite Blue Dog, Heath Shuler, to jump in.

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At 6:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can you just clarify where those survey results came from?

At 7:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who would be an ideal candidate for Missouri and Arizona? I know you were rooting for Brad Miller to run in North Carolina, but he declined. Who would be a good substitute there?


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