Thursday, February 18, 2016

Planning On Betting On The South Carolina And Nevada Races?


Yesterday the Trump Show made fun of how Jeb! looks in contact lenses and insisted that poor Marco Rubio is too sweaty to be president. "I thought he just came out of a swimming pool!," said the odds-on favorite to be the Republican Party's presidential nominee for 2016. In fact, since you mentioned odds... let's see how SportsBettingDime is playing the South Carolina and Nevada races, although keep in mind that all the figures below were released before Herr Trumpf decided to target Pope Francis for some of his signature vitriol.

Like the pollsters, they expect the South Carolina primaries to be won handily by Herr Trumpf and Hillary Clinton-- and by big margins. If I understand this correctly the odds are 7/1 that both win in South Carolina, an extremely low-info state, by over 20-points. Another bet they're offering, though is who will bet shat on most by Trumpf during his victory speech, calling Ted Cruz a sure thing. If you bet $5 on him being the victim of the most vitriol from Herr, you'd win $2. More about that below. Even in that, the poor Jebster is an underdog-- even if Trumpf was beating up on his appearance on Twitter yesterday. Bet a buck and if Herr spews more hatred towards Jeb than towards Cruz, you win $10. Nice odds!

This is a real ad from Nova Scotia in Canada favors Trump (2/7) and Clinton (3/2) to win in both South Carolina and Nevada. They are also predicting that Dr. Ben (4/5) drops out before Super Tuesday and that Herr Trumpf to drops 12.5 expletives between Friday and Tuesday. Now, let's get down to business-- Nevada first. If you read Jason Horowitz's First Report in the NY Times yesterday you already known that Robbie Mook, a DCCC hack who she drafted as her campaign manager, sat down with some big Wall Street moneybags to start making excuses for why she may lose Nevada after being up by between 20 and 30 points. Horowitz reports that the Mookster "sat at the head of a conference table in the New York office of Clinton donor and Wall Street investor Marc Lasry" of the Avenue Capital Group. The Mookster told the donors, yentas and bundlers that "the outcome in Nevada, a state he ran for Mrs. Clinton in the 2008 campaign, was hard to predict and that, depending on turnout, Mrs. Clinton could win by a lot or win or lose by a tiny margin, according to several donors who requested anonymity to discuss the private meeting." He also assured them that the establishment candidate-- AKA, the Lady With the Goldman Handcuffs-- would win in South Carolina. Maureen White, a former DNC finance chair, "expressed bewilderment that the campaign’s mobilization of grassroots support had been eclipsed in the news media by Bernie Sanders’s criticism of Mrs. Clinton as the establishment candidate representing big money." Mook, of course, blamed the media. One of the dumb fattest also asked the Mookster "to go after the youth vote. With a straight face, attendees said, the operative took the suggestion under advisement."

And, on the other side of the aisle, the Clinton's good friend, Herr Trumpf, was driving the GOP Establishment bonkers, attacking them and destroying their candidates while his polling numbers went into the stratosphere in Nevada (and South Carolina). It's almost as though the voters like him more the more harshly he tortures the Republican Party. In fact, addressing torture, he told an audience of appreciative neanderthals, "Believe me, it works." NY Times' Trip Gabriel reported yesterday that "the stubborn popularity of Mr. Trump, who defies Republican orthodoxy on issue after issue, shows how deeply the party’s elites misjudged the faithfulness of rank-and-file Republicans to conservatism as defined in Washington think tanks and by the party’s elected leaders," especially in South Carolina. Herr Trumpf’s "populism, a combination of economic nationalism that favors protectionism and a strongman approach to foreign countries that is also noninterventionist, defies almost everything Republicans in Washington have stood for, drawing scorn from party leaders and opinion makers" while locking immense leads in both South Carolina and Nevada.

So here's what the bookies say happens Saturday. Odds that Clinton wins the Nevada caucus (DEM) and Herr Trumpf wins the South Carolina primary (GOP) on Feb. 20-- 5/2. Odds that Clinton wins the Nevada caucus and Cruz wins the South Carolina primary-- 4/1. Odds that Clinton wins in Nevada caucus and Rubio wins in South Carolina-- 12/1. And a Clinton/Bush result-- 50/1, which means if you bet $100 on this outcome, and you're right, you walk away from the window with $5,000. Now the Bernie scenarios don't look too likely. Odds that Bernie wins the Nevada caucus and Herr Trumpf wins in South Carolina Saturday-- 5/2... the exact same odds as it coming out Hillary-Trumpf. By the time you're looking at Bernie/Bush however, you're looking at a $100 bet earning you $8,000. I don't suggest it.

The straight up Hillary vs Bernie Nevada contest Saturday looks very very close and if you bet $11 and Hillary wins, you win $10. If you get $10 on Bernie and he wins, you get $11. Close, but, like the Mookster above, favoring Hillary.

In South Carolina, they're predicting a 12.5 point spread between Trumpf and Cruz and a crushing 19.5 point spread between Hillary and Bernie. These are the odds in South Carolina for the Republicans:
Herr Trumpf: 3/2
Cruz: 5/1
Rubio: 5/1
Jeb: 6/1
Kasich: 30/1
Dr. Ben: 50/1
And for the Democrats the following week... Bet $9 on Hillary and win just $1 if she wins but bet a buck on Bernie and walk away with $7 if he wins. Of course, now that he's pulled ahead of Hillary nationally, I expect some of these odds are going to get changed pretty quickly.

Over/under on how many times Trump will curse in public between Friday, Feb. 19 (the day before the GOP's S.C. primary) and Tuesday, Feb. 23 (the day of the Nevada caucus):  Over/under: 12.5 (using a liberal definition of "curse").

Odds to drop out of the race or suspend candidacy between Nevada (Feb. 20) and Super Tuesday (March 1):

Carson: 4/5
Kasich: 5/4

Odds on who Donald Trump will mock/insult the most during his victory/concession speech following the GOP's South Carolina primary:
Ted Cruz: 2/5
Hillary Clinton: 5/1
Barack Obama: 6/1
Marco Rubio: 8/1
Jeb Bush/George Bush: 10/1
And last but not least, which party wins in November? If you bet $13 on the Democrats and they win, you get $8. If you bet $20 on the Republicanos and they win, you get $30. And if you bet $10 on Bloomberg and he wins, you get $100. I don't know if looking on betting odds will help you figure out who will win and better than looking at the polls does. But I know one thing that absolutely won't help you figure anything out:

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