Electability Again-- AND BERNIE TAKES THE LEAD NATIONALLY

If you're anything like me, at least politically, you're probably talking with friends who are sympathetic with Bernie's platform but absolutely positive that nominating him would be suicidal for the Democratic party. They assert that they don't trust Hillary or like her but that she's the only protection we have against Herr Trumpf, Cruz or Rubio. The argument drives me bonkers because it's based on carefully choreographed Establishment propaganda. Every poll-- not some polls, every poll-- shows that it's patently false. Pundits who repeat it (sometimes ad nauseam) are either ignorant or deceptive.

Since December, national polls have consistently shown that Hillary beats some of the Republicans loses to others while Bernie beats each and every one of the Republicans-- and in every case with higher numbers than Hillary. Even in low-info states where there hasn't been any campaigning and Hillary is leading Bernie in the primary-- like North Carolina, where Democratic Establishment pollsters PPP released a new one yesterday, when it comes to one on one general election match-ups, Bernie does better than Hillary against every Republican. That's because independent voters (now 44% of the American electorate, loathe Hillary and just do not trust her, while they admire and trust Bernie, despite the Establishment barrage about "socialism"). And her firewall is crumbling.

Let's look at the hypothetical general election results from North Carolina a little closer. In a Hillary/Trumpf North Carolina match-up, Herr Trumpf wins 44-43% while Bernie vs Trumpf yields a Bernie victory-- 44-42%. If Hillary faces Jeb, Jeb wins 44-42% but Bernie wins 43-42%. If it's Hillary vs Cruz, Cruz wins 46-43% whereas Bernie ties Cruz 43-43%. Rubio crushes Hillary in North Carolina, 49-40% but Bernie does significantly better, Rubio ahead 45-41%.

These North Carolina match-ups are based largely on favorable/unfavorable "feelings" about each candidate. When you look at the entire electorate-- so independents as well as Democrats and Republicans-- all the candidates are viewed more unfavorably than favorably, but for some candidates it's shocking.

• Trump-- favorable- 29%, unfavorable- 60% (-31%)
• Jeb!-- favorable- 24%, unfavorable- 54% (-30%)
• Hillary-- favorable- 33%, unfavorable- 59% (-26%)
• Cruz-- favorable- 28%, unfavorable- 53% (-25%)
• Bernie-- favorable- 36%, unfavorable- 49% (-13%)
• Rubio-- favorable- 35%, unfavorable- 45% (-10%)

Yesterday, USA Today ran a story, based on a brand new national Suffolk poll, emphasizing that voters most fear a Trumpf presidency... although many also fear the prospect of Hillary in the White House.

[F]or Trump, 38% of likely voters would be scared if the real-estate mogul won the GOP nomination-- including not only 62% of Democrats but also 17% of Republicans. A third of independents, 33%, feel that way. Of the three candidates tested, voters were inclined to have a positive reaction only for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Thirty-one percent of those surveyed say they would be satisfied if he won the Democratic nomination, a bit more than the 28% who would be scared.

And for Clinton, a former secretary of State, 33% would be scared-- including  60% of Republicans and also 8% of Democrats. Just over a third of independents, 35%, agree. Sanders is viewed somewhat more positively by Republicans and independents than Clinton was. However, Democrats are more likely to be scared his nomination: 45% of Republicans, 28% of independents and 12% of Democrats say that would be their reaction.

The poll makes clear the headwinds ahead for Trump and Clinton, if they prevail in the primaries.

For Trump, a majority of likely voters, 56%, have a negative response to his prospective nomination, including 18% who would be dissatisfied. Just under four in 10 have a positive reaction: 15% enthusiastic and 24% satisfied.

Clinton fares only a bit better: 54% have a negative response to her nomination, including 21% who would be dissatisfied. Just over four in 10 have a positive reaction: 16% enthusiastic and 26% satisfied.

The response to Sanders' nomination was an even split: 46% with a positive reaction--  including 16% who would be enthusiastic-- and 46% a negative one. 

Interesting the voters fearful of a Bernie presidency are mostly Democrats-- the voters the Clinton Propaganda Machine has been targeting with a barrage of negative and vicious messaging about him, messaging that is blowing back onto her and making her less and less electable. This morning Amie Parnes reported for The Hill that ClintonWorld is freaking out as the race tightens in Nevada and nationally. Is it inevitable that she will lose?

"I don’t get it. I don’t think anyone expected this race to look like this," said one former Clinton aide who maintains ties with the campaign. "A big loss in New Hampshire, basically a tie going into Nevada. You have to ask yourself, 'What’s next?'"

Team Clinton maintains confidence that its lead in South Carolina will hold, but the potential loss in Nevada has put people on edge about a possible "domino effect" in which states could fall one by one to Sanders as the Vermont Independent gains momentum.

"It’s hard to feel confident about South Carolina if you lose Nevada," the former aide said.

Democratic strategist Jim Manley, a former spokesman to then-Majority Leader Harry Reid, (D-Nev.) said he believes Clinton will ultimately eek out a victory in Nevada because it’s a state “tailor-made for her" with its minority population.

Minutes after he said that three Spanish language newspapers in Las Vegas and Reno endorsed Bernie-- Ahora Latino Journal, El Reportero and Tú Revista Latina. 27.8% of Nevadans are Hispanic and they're just learning about Bernie and-- according to Clinton operatives-- many of them like what they're hearing about him.

Internally, both Bill and Hillary Clinton have voiced their displeasure with various aspects of the campaign, particularly on messaging and organizing, according to sources. Those involved with the campaign increasingly a reshuffling will take place, especially if Clinton suffers a loss in Nevada.

"The shit will hit the fan," one longtime friend of the Clintons predicted. "No doubt about it."

"I think there’s real genuine concern about Bernie’s momentum and that the firewall doesn’t seem to be holding back the fire," the friend said. "I don’t think people think she isn’t going to win the nomination. But I do think people think it’ll take a lot more money and a lot more time."

UPDATE: Bernie Takes Over The Lead From The Establishment Candidate

For the first time in a national poll, Bernie is slightly ahead of the Wall Street-backed Hillary Clinton. According to a just-released Fox Poll Bernie is leading 47% (up 10 points since January) to 44% (down 5 points).

“One thing that is clear from our poll-- and others-- is that Clinton has been losing support and Sanders has been gaining,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson.  “And this process appears to have accelerated since the contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.”

The timing of Sanders’ surge doesn’t surprise Republican pollster Daron Shaw: “Historically, lesser-known candidates beating establishment candidates in early contests have seen the biggest boost in their national support.”  Shaw and Anderson jointly conduct the Fox News Poll.

The last two Fox News polls show Clinton’s drop-off has been most striking among women (she has gone from 28 points ahead of Sanders to just 3 points up, for a shift of minus 25 points), whites (-13 points), and regular Democrats (-14 points). She has mostly held constant among black voters and those with a college degree.

Shaw says a detailed comparison of the polls suggests, “Blue-collar, white Democrats have been a major source of Clinton’s defection.”

Sanders outperforms Clinton in a hypothetical matchup against Republican front-runner Donald Trump.  He leads Trump by 53-38 percent.  Clinton has a narrower five-point edge over Trump: 47-42 percent.

One reason Sanders has a larger lead over Trump than Clinton is independents are more likely to go for Sanders over Trump (54 vs. 33) than for her (43 vs. 39).

Sanders also does better against Trump in a potential three-way matchup if former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg were to jump into the race.  Under that scenario, it’s Sanders 46 percent vs. Trump at 35 percent with Bloomberg taking 12 percent.  If the Democratic candidate is Clinton, she gets 39 to Trump’s 37 percent and Bloomberg receives 17 percent.