Saturday, January 02, 2016

Demographics Could Kill The GOP Off-- But Not In Congress, Not While Pelosi Controls The DCCC


Steve Israel and his new DCCC "chairman"

Probably the two top recommendations of the Republican Party's official autopsy gf the Romney campaign were that the party had to make itself more attractive to Latinos and more attractive to young voters. The response from the Republican party base was not just hostile... it was the emergence of Herr Trumpf. Reuters reported this week that polling indicates that Republican Party "support among Hispanic likely voters and younger likely voters has shrunk significantly" and that right now "[t]he percentage of Republicans among those likely to vote in the Nov. 8, 2016, election lags Democrats by 9 percentage points, compared with a 6-point deficit in the year leading up to Obama’s 2012 victory." Trumpf's over-exposure in the media is compounding the problem, not just for himself but for the Republican Party brand itself.

No one except Herr Trumpf himself would dispute that his inflammatory and poverty xenophobic and racist rhetorical is the major reason that "among Hispanics who are likely presidential voters, the percentage affiliated with the Republican Party has slipped nearly five points, from 30.6 percent in 2012 to 26 percent in 2015. Meanwhile, Hispanic Democrats grew by six percentage points to 59.6 percent." A competent DCCC-- something that doesn't exist and will take at least 4 or 5 years to create after Pelosi is gone from the congressional leadership, presuming the extremely unlikely scenario that sees an improvement in leadership (it's more likely to get worse or even much worse-- would be able to use these facts on the ground to win dozens of seats that the current DCCC will not even be seriously or competently contesting and in some cases, not contesting at all.

There are Republican-held, blue-leaning districts, many with substantial and growing Hispanic voters bases-- examples include CA-25, CA-10, CA-21, FL-27, IL-12, IL-13, IA-03, MI-07, MI-08, MI-11, MN-03, NJ-02, NJ-03, NY-01, NY-02, NY-11, NY-19, NY-21, NY-23, OH-10, OH-14, PA-07, PA-15, PA-16, TX-23, VA-02, VA-04, VA-10, WA-03, WA-08, WI-07, and WI-08-- where the DCCC has already crippled the chances of electing a Democrat in 2016-- thirty-two districts that either Bernie or Hillary would under normal circumstances bring in on their coattails but because of Emanuel/Van Hollen/Israel recruiting philosophy are as good as dead to the Democrats. In good conscience I can't even put the biggest part of the blame on Emanuel/Van Hollen/Israel any longer when it is completely clear that the fault is overwhelmingly that of Pelosi and Hoyer.

Back to that Reuters study, where they found that "[a]mong whites under 40, the shift is even more dramatic [than it is in the case of Latinos]. In 2012, they were more likely to identify with the Republican Party by about 5 percentage points. In 2015, the advantage flipped: Young whites are now more likely to identify with the Democratic Party by about 8 percentage points. How has the DCCC changed its strategies to contend with this kind of explosive development: massive, self-enriching corruption while doubling down on a policy that couldn't help the Republicans more if it had been designed by Karl Rove.
For both parties, the election will partly hinge, as always, on getting out the votes, Newhouse said. But for a Republican to win, the gap in party membership means their voters need to show up at a much higher rate than Democratic voters.

In November 2014, Republican voters did just that with dramatic congressional victories that allowed the GOP to take control of the U.S. Senate and solidify its control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Those gains, during a low-turnout midterm election, were fueled by turnout among older white voters.

Ari Fleischer was co-author of Growth and Opportunity Project, the Republican postmortem of Romney’s 2012 loss which concluded that the party had to connect with minorities, especially Asians and Hispanics, and the young.

"If our Party is not welcoming and inclusive, young people and increasingly other voters will continue to tune us out," the authors wrote.
Fleischer's dream was dashed as the entire Deep Bench followed Herr Trumpf down the garden path of bigotry, hatred and-- what's the opposite of "welcoming and inclusive?"
Republican Senator Dean Heller of Nevada said the rhetoric coming from some of his party’s candidates is dampening any hope their message will resonate beyond the party’s base.

Heller, who has endorsed former Florida Governor Jeb Bush for the Republican nomination, noted Bush's brother George W. Bush got about 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004 while Romney got just 28 percent in 2012.

"So it is possible for a Republican candidate to do well with the Hispanic community," Heller said. "And we have to do better or we’re not going to win this presidential race."

Carlos Firpi is a 31-year-old Hispanic voter and a Republican. Earlier this year, he considered himself a Trump supporter. No longer.

"Now I don’t know who to support," said the computer technician from Carlisle, Pennsylvania.

"Unfortunately, all I seem to hear anymore from anyone in the Republican Party is extremism."

Firpi said he is naturally drawn to the party’s emphasis on self-reliance and a limited role for government. And he remains a Republican but also understands why Hispanics and young voters would feel alienated. "It concerns me, too."

Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele said the party needs to reach out to minority groups between campaign cycles.

"It’s not something you get done in one cycle; it’s not something you get done in two cycles. It’s something that’s done over time," he said after watching December's Republican debate in Las Vegas.

The photo Reuters sent out with their story, says a lot about the problem (although I do see a couple of women in the crowd. Of course, at a Trumpf rally, a woman is as likely to leave and become a Bernie or Hillary supporter as she is to stay with the GOP).

If God told the GOP it could pick the next DCCC chairman, panic would ensue at the prospect of Steve Israel losing effective control over the committee. He and his rancid crew counter-balance every demographic shift that favors progressives and Democrats.

Labels: , , , , , ,


Post a Comment

<< Home