Monday, March 30, 2015

What ISIS Really Wants​


ISIS flag (source and analysis)

by Gaius Publius

I found the following piece, by Graeme Wood writing at The Atlantic, a compelling and riveting read. First, it attempts to answer the question: What is ISIS, really? Second, it sounds an alarm — that misunderstanding ISIS has accounted for, and will account for, major American policy and strategic mistakes. As you'll read below, the author says (my emphasis):
“We have not defeated the [ISIS] idea,” [the U.S. Special Operations commander in the Middle East] said. “We do not even understand the idea.” In the past year, President Obama has referred to the Islamic State, variously, as “not Islamic” and as al-Qaeda’s “jayvee team,” statements that reflected confusion about the group, and may have contributed to significant strategic errors.
Bottom line: ISIS is a religious group, very unlike al-Qaeda, and very much interested in conquered territory. Also, very seventh-century. Below is the piece's introduction. Do click through for the rest. Even if you don't end up agreeing with all the points made, the article is meticulously researched and you'll learn much, including how to watch this Middle East news as it unfolds. Graeme Wood did extensive in-region interviews for this article.

Four points to note before I present the piece itself:
  • For ISIS adherents, all Shiites and all Muslim heads of state are "apostates" to Islam, not just "sinners," and thus must be marked for death. He who refuses to kill them is himself a "sinner."
  • Executions for apostasy happen "more or less continually, and mass executions every few weeks" in ISIS-held territory.
  • ISIS adherents, like many Christian fundamentalists, are trying to bring about the Apocalypse.
  • The way ISIS's interpretation of Sharia constrains and controls its war planning is not well understood in the West, but it offers crucial advantages to those who do understand it.
As the piece says, in a part not quoted below, "Following takfiri doctrine [which deals with proper treatment of apostates], the Islamic State is committed to purifying the world by killing vast numbers of people." Now the article:
What ISIS Really Wants

The Islamic State is no mere collection of psychopaths. It is a religious group with carefully considered beliefs, among them that it is a key agent of the coming apocalypse. Here’s what that means for its strategy—and for how to stop it. 

What is the Islamic State?

Where did it come from, and what are its intentions? The simplicity of these questions can be deceiving, and few Western leaders seem to know the answers. In December, The New York Times published confidential comments by Major General Michael K. Nagata, the Special Operations commander for the United States in the Middle East, admitting that he had hardly begun figuring out the Islamic State’s appeal. “We have not defeated the idea,” he said. “We do not even understand the idea.” In the past year, President Obama has referred to the Islamic State, variously, as “not Islamic” and as al-Qaeda’s “jayvee team,” statements that reflected confusion about the group, and may have contributed to significant strategic errors.

The group seized Mosul, Iraq, last June, and already rules an area larger than the United Kingdom. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has been its leader since May 2010, but until last summer, his most recent known appearance on film was a grainy mug shot from a stay in U.S. captivity at Camp Bucca during the occupation of Iraq. Then, on July 5 of last year, he stepped into the pulpit of the Great Mosque of al-Nuri in Mosul, to deliver a Ramadan sermon as the first caliph in generations—upgrading his resolution from grainy to high-definition, and his position from hunted guerrilla to commander of all Muslims. The inflow of jihadists that followed, from around the world, was unprecedented in its pace and volume, and is continuing.

Our ignorance of the Islamic State is in some ways understandable: It is a hermit kingdom; few have gone there and returned. Baghdadi has spoken on camera only once. But his address, and the Islamic State’s countless other propaganda videos and encyclicals, are online, and the caliphate’s supporters have toiled mightily to make their project knowable. We can gather that their state rejects peace as a matter of principle; that it hungers for genocide; that its religious views make it constitutionally incapable of certain types of change, even if that change might ensure its survival; and that it considers itself a harbinger of—and headline player in—the imminent end of the world.

The Islamic State, also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), follows a distinctive variety of Islam whose beliefs about the path to the Day of Judgment matter to its strategy, and can help the West know its enemy and predict its behavior. Its rise to power is less like the triumph of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt (a group whose leaders the Islamic State considers apostates) than like the realization of a dystopian alternate reality in which David Koresh or Jim Jones survived to wield absolute power over not just a few hundred people, but some 8 million.

We have misunderstood the nature of the Islamic State in at least two ways. First, we tend to see jihadism as monolithic, and to apply the logic of al‑Qaeda to an organization that has decisively eclipsed it. The Islamic State supporters I spoke with still refer to Osama bin Laden as “Sheikh Osama,” a title of honor. But jihadism has evolved since al-Qaeda’s heyday, from about 1998 to 2003, and many jihadists disdain the group’s priorities and current leadership.

Bin Laden viewed his terrorism as a prologue to a caliphate he did not expect to see in his lifetime. His organization was flexible, operating as a geographically diffuse network of autonomous cells. The Islamic State, by contrast, requires territory to remain legitimate, and a top-down structure to rule it. (Its bureaucracy is divided into civil and military arms, and its territory into provinces.)

We are misled in a second way, by a well-intentioned but dishonest campaign to deny the Islamic State’s medieval religious nature. Peter Bergen, who produced the first interview with bin Laden in 1997, titled his first book Holy War, Inc. in part to acknowledge bin Laden as a creature of the modern secular world. Bin Laden corporatized terror and franchised it out. He requested specific political concessions, such as the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Saudi Arabia. His foot soldiers navigated the modern world confidently. On Mohamed Atta’s last full day of life, he shopped at Walmart and ate dinner at Pizza Hut.

There is a temptation to rehearse this observation—that jihadists are modern secular people, with modern political concerns, wearing medieval religious disguise—and make it fit the Islamic State. In fact, much of what the group does looks nonsensical except in light of a sincere, carefully considered commitment to returning civilization to a seventh-century legal environment, and ultimately to bringing about the apocalypse.

The most-articulate spokesmen for that position are the Islamic State’s officials and supporters themselves. They refer derisively to “moderns.” In conversation, they insist that they will not—cannot—waver from governing precepts that were embedded in Islam by the Prophet Muhammad and his earliest followers. They often speak in codes and allusions that sound odd or old-fashioned to non-Muslims, but refer to specific traditions and texts of early Islam.

To take one example: In September, Sheikh Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, the Islamic State’s chief spokesman, called on Muslims in Western countries such as France and Canada to find an infidel and “smash his head with a rock,” poison him, run him over with a car, or “destroy his crops.” To Western ears, the biblical-sounding punishments—the stoning and crop destruction—juxtaposed strangely with his more modern-sounding call to vehicular homicide. (As if to show that he could terrorize by imagery alone, Adnani also referred to Secretary of State John Kerry as an “uncircumcised geezer.”)

But Adnani was not merely talking trash. His speech was laced with theological and legal discussion, and his exhortation to attack crops directly echoed orders from Muhammad to leave well water and crops alone—unless the armies of Islam were in a defensive position, in which case Muslims in the lands of kuffar, or infidels, should be unmerciful, and poison away.

The reality is that the Islamic State is Islamic. Very Islamic. Yes, it has attracted psychopaths and adventure seekers, drawn largely from the disaffected populations of the Middle East and Europe. But the religion preached by its most ardent followers derives from coherent and even learned interpretations of Islam.

Virtually every major decision and law promulgated by the Islamic State adheres to what it calls, in its press and pronouncements, and on its billboards, license plates, stationery, and coins, “the Prophetic methodology,” which means following the prophecy and example of Muhammad, in punctilious detail. Muslims can reject the Islamic State; nearly all do. But pretending that it isn’t actually a religious, millenarian group, with theology that must be understood to be combatted, has already led the United States to underestimate it and back foolish schemes to counter it. We’ll need to get acquainted with the Islamic State’s intellectual genealogy if we are to react in a way that will not strengthen it, but instead help it self-immolate in its own excessive zeal.
There follow a number of sections discussing the nature of the religious devotion of the ISIS fighters, their belief in the imminent Apocalypse, and how adherence to strict seventh-century Islam constrains the way ISIS can conduct its war.

About ISIS as a religious movement, the author quotes Princeton scholar Bernard Haykel and notes:
All Muslims acknowledge that Muhammad’s earliest conquests were not tidy affairs, and that the laws of war passed down in the Koran and in the narrations of the Prophet’s rule were calibrated to fit a turbulent and violent time. In Haykel’s estimation, the fighters of the Islamic State are authentic throwbacks to early Islam and are faithfully reproducing its norms of war.
There's a lot of "blood and guts" in many early versions of modern religions, including the Christian and the Hebrew Bibles. It needs to be said that ISIS fighters are taking that aspect of their religion literally, in the sense that they're following the whole of the early how-we-fight-pagans prescriptions. It also needs to be said that almost all of the world's Muslims don't take that aspect of their religions literally:
Leaders of the Islamic State have taken emulation of Muhammad as strict duty, and have revived traditions that have been dormant for hundreds of years. “What’s striking about them is not just the literalism, but also the seriousness with which they read these texts,” Haykel said. “There is an assiduous, obsessive seriousness that Muslims don’t normally have.”
This includes adherence to slavery, a worldwide custom in the ancient and early medieval world:
“We will conquer your Rome, break your crosses, and enslave your women,” Adnani, the [ISIS] spokesman, promised in one of his periodic valentines to the West. “If we do not reach that time, then our children and grandchildren will reach it, and they will sell your sons as slaves at the slave market.”
He means that literally, and U.S. policy-makers should understand that he does. In the section called "The Fight," the writer says:
The ideological purity of the Islamic State has one compensating virtue: it allows us to predict some of the group’s actions. Osama bin Laden was seldom predictable. He ended his first television interview cryptically. CNN’s Peter Arnett asked him, “What are your future plans?” Bin Laden replied, “You’ll see them and hear about them in the media, God willing.” By contrast, the Islamic State boasts openly about its plans—not all of them, but enough so that by listening carefully, we can deduce how it intends to govern and expand. ...
It’s hard to overstate how hamstrung the Islamic State [and its ability to wage war] will be by its radicalism.
I'll let you read why. The section on Apocalypse makes fascinating reading as well. If you're inclined to expand your understanding of this group, I urge you to take a long look at this fascinating article.


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At 11:52 AM, Anonymous Ed Walker said...

I agree. This is a must read article.

At 12:53 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is the article anything than merely more, if scholarly, scare tactics?

So ISIS springs from someone's "logical" interpretation of Islam's sacred writings. So do "quieter" fascist totalitarian states in the area (our allies Saudi Arabia comes to mind). d

What has sprung up recently in Indiana (earlier, e.g. in "liberal" Oregon's Measure 37), is much farther from the intent of America's founding documents.

Any theories on HOW such unbridled rabidity could have arisen? ANY hint that when one (i.e USA) destroys states (Iraq, Lybia, Somalia, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, etc., etc. etc) this automatically creates optimal breeding grounds for such groups?

After having made a serious effort to get Kerry elected president, having watched his pathetic campaign, his reaction to Ohio-election-fraud II AND his performance as SecState: the term "uncircumcised geezer" is the much milder that what I have called him.

John Puma

At 9:13 AM, Blogger Steve said...

If you agree with the premise that ISIS is a grass roots movement germinated from the chaos unleashed by the combination of the Iraq invasion and the Arab spring its very insightful and terribly frightening.
Terror retreating farther and farther into Christian Medieval territory.

Equaly to be considered is the notion that ISIS is astro turf and translated its pretty clear what is meant.

At 9:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

isis, then, appears to be another competing Islamic fundy cult of violence. Some, like wahabism, are intrAmurally violent. Others, like al quaida and isis and the other African groups are violent both intra- and intermurally.

In millennia past, Christianity went through its own spasms... no less violent albeit less capable of dealing death at today's rates and efficiency. Crusades? Inquisition? KKK? Nazis? All had Christian basis or undertones. And all were consequences of power-hungry trying to become all-powerful.

humans. deeply and fundamentally flawed psychologically. It's the 21st century and we ABSOLUTELY KNOW that the scriptures these awful belief systems are based upon are utter bunk, yet we cannot help ourselves but blindly believe and act... like the true ultralimbic morons that we are.

I have no illusions about earth lamenting our self-immolation as a species.. probably very soon.


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