Chris Gibson Announces His Retirement From Congress. Is Luján Lame Enough To Re-recruit Sean Eldridge?

Moderate Republican Chris Gibson-- and a glance at ProgressivePunch voting records show he is the only actual moderate left among House Republicans-- won't be running for reelection in 2016. In fact, yesterday he announced that he will be retiring from Congress at the end of this term. The only Republican in the House who voted more progressively than any Democrats-- in this case, reactionary Blue Dogs Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) and Collin Peterson (MN)-- is looking towards a statewide run in 2018. His Upper Hudson Valley/Catskills district (NY-19) is one of the bluesy districts in the country held by a Republican. If-- and its a big and unlikely "if"-- new DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján doesn't follow Steve Israel down the defeatist rabbit hole, its a district that can be won by a Democrat, especially in a presidential year-- and especially with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket. The PVI is D+1 and Obama won the district twice, 53-45% against McCain and 52-46% against Romney. Hillary is far more popular there than Obama and, it can be expected that thousands of Democrats who didn't bother voting last November-- when Gibson trounced pathetic Steve Israel recruit Sean Eldridge 124,428 (65%) to 67,024 (35%)-- will turn out in 2016.

But will Eldridge, a multimillionaire by way of marriage, be the DCCC recruit again? He thinks he's going to be the first openly gay president, so he does need to get elected to something to get that ball rolling. A few days after his stunning-- and costly-- defeat, we suggested that he buy a new mansion in the Hamptons and run for the Suffolk County seat Republican Lee Zeldin just won (NY-01). In 2012, Julian Schreibman, spending a fraction of the money, did a lot better than Eldridge against Gibson. Schreibman spent $1,331,223 compared to Eldridge's $6,333,592 (of which $4,255,000 came from his own bank account). Where Eldridge wound up with 67,024 votes (35%), Schreibman took 134,295 (47%), something maybe even Ben Ray Luján could ask Israel about when Israel insists the DCCC anoint Eldridge again.

A problem for the Democratic Party is that the creeping centralization of decision-making, away from the local level and towards DC (particularly towards the DSCC and the DCCC) has crippled recruitment of decent candidates able to make a case to actual voters. Instead we wind up with cardboard candidates who have honed the skills to make their case to transactional corporate whores like Steve Israel. Being suited to persuade Steve Israel you're a good candidate, pretty much excludes you from actually being a good candidate. Is there anyone on a grassroots level looking at the Gibson seat? For sure-- but is Israel-- with Luján in tow-- preparing the squash local aspiration for Sean Eldridge's bank account?

On the Republican side of the aisle, the early contenders are Assemblyman Steve McLaughin, Rensselaer County Executive Kathy Jimino, Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, Assemblyman Pete Lopez and state Sen. Jim Seward. Aside from Eldridge, Democrats looking at the race include Ulster County Executive Mike Hein and former state Sen. Terry Gipson, who lost his seat in the Republican wave in November.