With No Political Price To Pay, Republicans Are More Likely To Shut Down The Government Over Immigration Measures

Right after the Republican Party decided a good electoral strategy would be to cater to the hardcore elements inside their own Fox-fed base and shut down the government, polling showed that dozens of Republicans in Congress had put themselves in jeopardy of electoral defeat for that vote. After being told that the their congressmember had voted to shut down the government, voters across the country said they were more likely to vote for the Democrat, including in these 15 key districts:

• CO-06- Coffman- 41%, Democrat- 51%
• FL-02- Southerland- 41%, Democrat- 50%
• FL-27- Ros-Lehtinen- 42%, Democrat- 53%
• KY-06- Barr- 42%, Democrat- 50%
• IL-06- Roskam- 43%, Democrat- 49%
• IL-13- Davis- 42%, Democrat- 47%
• MI-01- Benishek- 35%, Democrat- 57%
• MI-06- Upton- 36%, Democrat 56%
• MI-07- Walberg- 42%, Democrat- 51%
• NJ-05- Garrett- 45%, Democrat- 50%
• NY-22- Hanna- 40%, Democrat- 48%
• OH-15- Stivers- 40%, Democrat- 50%
• PA-08- Fitzpatrick- 42%, Democrat- 50%
• VA-05- Hurt- 40%, Democrat- 50%
• WA-08- Reichert- 40%, Democrat- 52%

Of the 15 districts, the DCCC only contested 6 (bolded below) and only won one, FL-02. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Steve Israel made sure there was no Democratic opponent running against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and they sabotaged the campaigns of several other Democrats running against these vulnerable Republicans. These were the results on election day.

• CO-06- Coffman- 52.0%, Romanoff- 42.9%
• FL-02- Southerland- 49.6%, Graham- 50.4%
• FL-27- Ros-Lehtinen- uncontested
• KY-06- Barr- 60.0%, Jensen- 40.0%
• IL-06- Roskam- 67.2%, Mason- 32.8%
• IL-13- Davis- 58.7%, Callis- 41.3%
• MI-01- Benishek- 52.1%, Cannon- 45.3%
• MI-06- Upton- 55.8%, Clements- 40.4%
• MI-07- Walberg- 53.5%, Byrnes- 41.2%
• NJ-05- Garrett- 55.7%, Cho- 43.0%
• NY-22- Hanna- uncontested
• OH-15- Stivers- 66.1%, Wharton- 33.9%
• PA-08- Fitzpatrick- 61.9%, Strouse- 38.1%
• VA-05- Hurt- 61/0%, Gaughan- 35.8%
• WA-08- Reichert- 63.4%, Ritchie- 36.6%

How could the DCCC have done so badly-- apart from making sure there were no candidates running in FL-27 (where Obama beat Romney 53-47%) and in NY-22 (where Obama and Romney were tied 49-49%)? It starts with atrocious candidate recruitment in the races they were interested in (Callis, Cannon, Strouse being perfect examples) and then is further explained by the districts they either ignored completely (IL-06, NJ-05, OH-15, VA-05, WA-08) or the progressives that Steve Israel actively worked to sabotage (Paul Clements being the stand-out example). And then there's the matter of the inability of the Steve Israel/Kelly Ward-led DCCC to exploit the deep resentment towards Republicans for shutting down the government. These are not capable, competent, talented people. They are hopeless hacks put in position for every other reason but the right reasons. It's what worried me about the new DCCC chair, Ben Ray Luján, who has already announced he's keeping Ward in place as executive director, and has no vision or appetite for the kinds of profound changes the dysfunctional and corrupt DCCC would need to function effectively in the 2016 cycle.

And the whole shutting down the government thing is back with us. Ted Cruz is telling Republicans that the tactic worked for the GOP and that because they shut down the government, they won so many seats in November 4. Cruz and Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III (KKK-AL) are pushing to shut it down again over immigration reform or health care or Obama being a usurping colored person or whatever has driven them deep into the darkness of paranoia and insanity. Again, polling shows most Americans do not want a government shut down. Look at these two questions from the Quinnipiac poll:

Not even Republican voters, a majority of whom (54%) want to forceably deport over 11 million undocumented immigrants-- primarily Hispanics and Asians-- support the idea of a government shutdown. Normal Americans are adamantly opposed to even partial shutdown-- 89% of Democrats and 71% of independents. 44% of Republicans actually are buying into the Ted Cruz/KKK perspective and are eager for a shutdown. The Republican leadership says they can prevent it. Are they lying? Miscalculating? Probably one or the other but they are also well aware that the sclerotic Democratic congressional leadership will again be incapable of making them pay for their unpopular actions at the polls.