McConnell To Senate Republicans: "Reelection Starts Now"

Will Democrats run on this-- or run away from it again?

In theory, 2016 should be a good electoral year for Democrats. Their voters will probably be enthusiastic at the idea of electing Hillary Clinton (a moderate, the first woman president, familiar entitity everyone feels they know...). And Hillary at the top of the ticket is giving to mean rough wealth for Republicans in blue-leaning House seats and in non-Confederate Senate races especially in places where she's well-regarded, like Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, maybe even North Carolina, Arkansas, Florida and Arizona-- all states where Republican incumbents are up for reelection. The Democrats could blow it of course... but so might the Republicans. Let's keep the tendency to blow it out of this discussion.

Yesterday, Politico did a story on how McConnell, who doesn't want to be minority leaders again, isn't leaving anything to chance. "Republicans face a daunting map in 2016," wrote Manu Raju, "when they will be forced to defend 24 seats in a presidential year, while Democrats have to defend only 10 seats-- a scenario McConnell is taking so seriously he’s leaving nothing to chance, starting now."

Last week, McConnell summoned all 24 Republicans up for reelection in 2016 to a morning meeting at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which was even attended by potential 2016 presidential candidates like Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who has said he wouldn’t run for the White House and Senate at the same time. At the meeting, McConnell and Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker, the new NRSC chairman, made a blunt declaration to their colleagues: Reelection, they said, starts now.

...“Members need to begin to do the things to tool their campaigns differently, to understand the significant change in resource needs,” Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) said, recounting the message from the meeting. “And now is the time to begin to think about the mechanics of the campaigns.”

Burr, who is up for reelection for a third term in 2016, has just $720,000 in cash in a state where more than $100 million was spent in the 2014 North Carolina Senate race, in which Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan narrowly lost to Republican Thom Tillis. But despite the lack of money, Burr said he plans on running and even seemed ready to take on Hagan if she were to run against him.

...The Republican path to keep the Senate won’t be easy. They have to defend seats in blue states and swing states, like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, Illinois and Wisconsin-- compared to just 10 for Democrats. Moreover, Democrats could have some serious statewide recruits. In recent interviews, two Democratic senators who lost this year-- Arkansas’ Mark Pryor and Alaska’s Mark Begich — punted on their intentions to run in 2016 in their respective states, though they didn’t rule it out.

“We’ll see,” Begich said when asked if he’d run against Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) in 2016.

Plus, Hillary Clinton could end up at the top of the ballot if she decides to run and becomes the party’s nominee, a scenario that could boost turnout, giving Democrats hope that they can increase the gender gap among women voters after seeing it shrink in 2014.

With Democratic turnout typically higher in an election year and a big-spending Democratic super PAC, Senate Majority PAC, prepared to dump tens of millions into the effort to bring its party back to the majority, McConnell is seeking more effective ways to spend GOP money.

Josh Holmes, McConnell’s chief political adviser, is holding private conversations with donors and operatives to see if there’s interest to form a new super PAC dedicated to helping Senate Republicans retain the majority. Currently, a bevy of big-spending GOP outside groups influence key races, including the Karl Rove-linked American Crossroads, as well as the Koch brothers’ Americans for Prosperity. But in 2016, their attention may focus on the presidential race.

Plus, Holmes has identified at least $8 million spent by smaller super PACs on individual races in 2014 that Republicans believe could have been better spent this cycle.

...“In 2012, we got off to a tough start because our donors were so discouraged that we actually lost ground in the Senate as well as the presidency,” Wicker said. “We’re now in an era of good feeling and our donors believe in us and we need to get started early.”

As we mentioned over the weekend, right-wing extremist Ron Johnson (R-WI) is on everyone's target list-- even his own. “Obviously, I’m going to be the No. 1 target,” he said. “I don’t dispute that whatsoever.” Let's take a look at the seats up in 2016. Among the Democrats, the toughest races will be Harry Reid's and Michael Bennet's, the only two likely to draw serious Republican attention. Barbara Boxer (CA) is retiring and I expect Barabra Mikulski (MD), who will turn 80 before election day and isn't in great health, may as well. Both states are extremely likely to select Democratic replacements. These are the Democratic incumbents whose seats look safe:

• Richard Blumenthal (CT)
• Brian Schatz (HI)
• Chuck Schumer (NY)
• Ron Wyden (OR)
• Pat Leahy (VT)
• Patty Murray (WA)

Now let's take the safe Republican seats out of the equation:

• Richard Shelby (AL)
• Mike Crapo (ID)
• Jerry Moran (KS) although Hueslkamp has been threatening a primary
• John Hoeven (ND)
• James Lankford (OK)
• Tim Scott (SC)
• John Thune (SD)
• Mike Lee (UT)- though mainstream conservatives may run a primary challenge against him

That leaves the battle ground Senate states as 2 Democratic-held seats, Nevada and Colorado and 16 Republican-held seats. Nevada and Colorado will be big focuses for the Clinton campaign and so will most of the states where Republican incumbents could face choppy waters, depending, of course, on the success of Democratic recruiting efforts. Here are the states with the interesting post-primary Senate races for 2016:

• Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
• John McCain (R-AZ)- will be 80, screaming at people to get off his lawn
• John Boozman (R-AR)
• Michael Bennet (D-CO)
• Marco Rubio (R-FL)
• Johnny Isakson (R-GA)
• Mark Kirk (R-IL)
• Dan Coats (R-IN)
• Chuck Grassely (R-IA)- will be 83 on election day, already noticeably senile
• Rand Paul (R-KY)
• [David Vitter (R-LA)]
• Roy Blunt (R-MO)
• Harry Reid (D-NV)
• Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)
• Richard Burr (R-NC)
• Rob Portman (R-OH)
• Pat Toomey (R-PA)
• Ron Johnson (R-WI)

Bolded incumbents are the five I would bet will be most likely to not be returning in 2017. Democratic recruitment is key.