State Legislative Races-- A Run-Down Of Important States To Watch

This asshole is playing for the other team

Some state legislatures have considerable power and some have very little, but almost all of them draw the lines for congressional seats. You know all that talk about how Democrats got millions of more votes for their congressional candidates but far fewer seats? That's because state legislatures (and governors mansions) were controlled by Republicans who gerrymandered their states to hell. (Democrats sometimes do the same thing when they control the process, though not as frequently or as ruthlessly-- or effectively-- as Republicans do it.)

Blue America hasn't been very active in helping win back state legislative seats for Democrats for several reasons, not the least on which is that for Democrats to win back legislatures they don't only have to elect progressives and good govern,net types but usually have to win seats for vile, corrupt conservatives who are almost as bad as Republicans. That isn't something Blue America gets involved with. Our state legislative candidates are all carefully vetted and top notch. And we do have a special page for the very difficult job of winning back the Wisconsin state Senate, where all three of our candidates are strong, dependable progressives.

The statehouse action blog, ran down the most important state races coming up a week from Tuesday. They focus on 13 crucial chambers ripe to flip and 6 longer-shots (Senates in Arizona Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Maine and Oregon plus the Minnesota House, where Democrats are playing defense). This is primarily their work:

• Arkansas House (48 D/51 R/1 G): Lean R- flipping R to D would prevent a GOP trifecta, should Blue Dog Mike Ross lose the gubernatorial race, almost a certainty.

• Colorado Senate (18 D/17 R): Tossup- flipping D to R won't be a big deal if Hickenlooper wins, but if Democrats don't keep the governor's mansion, the state House would be the only remaining Democratic aspect of that trifecta. Expect more guns, less weed. Recent polling is giving Democrats legit indigestion about this chamber; PPP had Democrats down 40-48% on the generic legislative ballot last week.

• Iowa House (47 D/53 R): Lean R- flipping R to D means that the state Senate would almost certainly retain its Democratic majority, leaving Republican Gov. Branstad lonely at the top.

• Iowa Senate (26 D/24 R): Tossup/Tilt D- flipping D to R would almost certainly correlate with Republicans keeping their House majority, giving the GOP full trifecta control of state government. The conservative agenda kept at bay by the Democratic Senate majority since 2010 would come home to roost-- expect attacks on women's healthcare and choice, a "right to work" constitutional amendment, voter suppression.

• Kentucky House (54 D/46 R): Lean D- flipping D to R would leave Gov. Beshear the lonely Democrat at the top. If the next governor is also a Democrat, he'll need good bourbon to dull the pain of his stalled agenda. If a Republican replaces him in 2015, the GOP will have the governing trifecta. Expect "right to work," anti-choice, and other fun bits of the conservative agenda to quickly become law.

• Michigan House (50 D/59 R/1 I): Lean R- flipping R to D (a long-shot) would give Democrats a seat at the policy table; they'd either be a check on Gov. Snyder or a valuable ally of Gov. Schauer.

• Nevada Senate (11 D/10 R): Tossup/Tilt D- flipping D to R would make Gov. Sandoval's life a lot better (and Harry Reid's life a little harder in 2016).

• New Hampshire House (212 D/174 R/13 vacancies): Tossup- flipping D to R would make this chamber your prime source of entertaining/crazy/just plain wrong legislation... even more than it is already.

• New Hampshire Senate (11 D/13 R): Tossup- flipping R to D would help keep the House crazies in check (and would be a valuable ally of Gov. Hassan).

• New Mexico House (37 D/33 R): Lean D- flipping from D to R would be a major coup for Gov. Martinez (she tried really hard to make that happen two years ago), but the GOP majority would be slim, and Democrats still control the Senate (it's not up this year).

• New York Senate (26 D/30 R/5 IDC/2 vacancies): Tossup- flipping (effective) R to (actual, outright) D might not be a game change in terms of state policy, but paying back the Dem turncoats of 2012 would be delicious. Cuomo, ostensibly a Democrat, is allied with the Republicans, albeit quietly.

• Washington Senate (23 D/24 R/2 MCC): Tossup- Climate activist and super-rich guy Tom Steyer's NextGen Climate Action Committee is dropping $1 million to unseat two Republicans: Steve O'Ban (SD-25) and Andy Hill (SD-45).

• West Virginia House (53 D/47 R): Lean D