Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Most Americans Don't Like Their Own Congressmember

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Like most Americans, I don't like my congressman. Adam Schiff is a slimy Blue Dog/New Dem of low moral character who will do anything to further his careerist goals. He's far more conservative than his newly redrawn district but few voters in the district suspect as much. There is no Republican running against him but he has $2,042,527 cash on hand against an unknown independent opponent, Steve Stokes, who raised $5,562 ($4,047 in the form of a check from himself). In 2012 Schiff was reelected with 76% of the vote. In CA-28 (Hollywood, Burbank, Glendale, Los Feliz, Atwater, Silberlake and West Hollywood, a district with a PVI of D+20), more people voted for him (188,703) than for Obama (187,441). There is no awareness-- not even among local politicos-- that Schiff had an anti-gay voting record before gay districts neighborhoods were added to the district in 2010 or that Schiff had been a big cheerleader for attacking Iraq (and for anything else that would "harm" Israel's enemies) or even that Schiff was a low-life Blue Dog for his entire congressional career.

Most voters, across the country, are utterly clueless about who their own congressmember is and what he or she stands for. Most voters tend to cast their ballots based on party affiliation. Without a strong, well-financed primary challenge, even a well-educated district like CA-28 is probably doomed to decades of shitty representation by a self-serving careerist like Schiff. This morning, the Washington Post and ABC News released a poll that shows-- I think for the first time-- that a majority of Americans disapproves of their own Member of Congress. In the past voters have always disapproved on Congress while approving of their own Member.



Just over half the public, 51 percent, say they disapprove of the job that their own member of Congress is doing in the new poll, rising above the 50 percent threshold for the first time in the quarter-century of Post-ABC polling on this question. Just 41 percent approve. That's a new low, though it's not significantly different from ratings last October (43 percent), immediately after the end of a 16-day partial government shutdown that sent Republican approval ratings through the floor.

This all might not seem that surprising. After all, Congress has been held in very low regard for some time. But even as Congress's approval rating has sunk into the teens and stuck there, people generally saw their own member of Congress as different-- i.e. not part of the problem. A recent Pew poll, for instance, showed 69 percent of people wanted to unseat most members of Congress, but just 36 percent said the same of their own member.

The new numbers, which show Americans disapproving by their own member by double digits, suggest the people are less and less willing to give their own member a pass for Congress's sins.

The poll also finds, as usual, the Democrats' brand fares better than the Republicans' brand three months before the midterms, with 49 percent holding favorable views of the Democratic Party and 35 percent having a favorable view of the GOP. But Democrats' reputation edge is not expected to translate to big gains at the ballot box in November, with other polls showing 1) a much tighter race in whether voters plan to cast ballots for Democrats or Republicans, and 2) lower enthusiasm for voting among important Democratic-leaning groups. Election forecasters expect Republicans will maintain their majority in the House and say they also have a better than even chance of winning the six seats needed to take the Senate.

…Despite negative views of incumbent officeholders, the impact on incumbents' actual reelection hopes is likely modest, with the vast majority of officeholders expected to win reelection in November… Even with lagging popularity, though, incumbents have numerous other advantages that help ward off challengers, including congressional districts which lean toward their party, established fundraising networks, campaign experience and better name recognition than their challengers. They also benefit from voters' lack of homework; fewer than half the public in a recent Pew Research Center poll (46 percent), could correctly identify the party of their own representative.
A few days ago I was thrilled-- even if just for the briefest moment--- to see an e-mail pop into my inbox from a Schiff doppelgänger all the way across the country, Queens County Democratic Party boss Joe Crowley. Actually, Crowley is as conservative and ambitious as Schiff but he's more overtly corrupt. His e-mail was entitled "We could lose big." Normally I would never open an e-mail from Crowley but with a title like that… fingers crossed, I clicked. Of course it was just another dishonest plea for more money. Crowley, who takes more in bribes from the banksters than any other Democrat ($956,722 this cycle) has raised $2,522,321 this cycle, only 1% of it ($19,113) from small donors-- worse than most Republicans. His Queens-Bronx D+26 district reelected him with 83% of tech vote in 2012-- after another race with no primary opponent. This year he doesn't even have a Republican opponent. It's a minority majority district (48% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 10% Black) that includes College Point, East Elmhurst, Jackson Heights and Woodside in Queens and Co-op City, Morris Park, Parkchester, Pelham Bay, Throgs Neck and City Island in the Bronx. Few of the voters there know that Crowley is one of the most notoriously corrupt Members of Congress. They just think he's a good Democrat, which is always better than a Republican.

If you'd like to help honest, ethical, values-oriented progressives win House races, without having to worry you are inadvertently helping elect a crook like Crowley or Schiff, you can contribute directly to vetted candidates on this ActBlue page.

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