Mississippi Senate Debacle-- Who Will Have The Last Laugh?

Right-wing populists-- who are sometimes referred to as teabaggers-- have pretty much taken over the Republican social policy agenda. But have been largely unable to beat Chamber of Commerce Republicans in primaries this year, the way they did manage to do in 2010 and 2012 by replacing longtime Senate incumbents like Bob Bennett (R-UT), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), and Dick Lugar (R-IN) and beating Establishment candidates in Delaware (Mike Castle), Florida (Charlie Crist), Nevada (Sue Lowden), Colorado (Jane Norton), Texas (David Dewhurst) and Kentucky (Trey Grayson). Although the Tea Party wound up with Ted Cruz (TX), Mike Lee (UT), Marco Rubio (FL) and Rand Paul (KY) in the Senate, the rest of their candidates failed in the general elections that followed. This cycle teabagger candidates lost high profile Senate races in Kentucky, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Oklahoma, South Dakota and, most recently, Mississippi. The bitterness of the Mississippi primary is still reverberating and this morning Jonathan Weisman predicted in the NY Times "that if conservative outrage in Mississippi spreads, some Tea Party voters in other states where the Republican establishment’s candidate has prevailed could stay home in November. That could bolster Democrats like Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Mark Pryor in Arkansas, Mark Begich in Alaska or Michelle Nunn in Georgia."

Jane Bilello, chairwoman of the Asheville Tea Party in North Carolina, told him the much-disliked GOP candidate, failed House Speaker Thom Tillis, will suffer Tea Party defections in November. "Oh, we are watching. We are furious. The G.O.P. wants us to sit down, shut up and vote for their RINO. We are putting our foot down, and until the Republicans learn this lesson, they’re going to continue to lose elections."

[T]he open-ended nature of the Mississippi Republican civil war injects an element of uncertainty. By serving a notice of intent to contest the results, Mr. McDaniel will have 10 days from the official certification of Mr. Cochran’s victory to gather evidence and file an appeal. Certification is not expected until next week.

If, as expected, that appeal is filed, the Mississippi Republican Party would almost certainly reject it, sending the matter to the courts. Lawyers involved in the McDaniel case said they would be aiming for a new runoff election by mid-September.

Noel Fritsch, a spokesman for the McDaniel campaign, claims the campaign and its allies have identified 4,900 "irregular" ballots, with 31 counties and 19,000 absentee ballots still to be examined. Mr. Cochran prevailed by 6,693 votes. By checking voter rolls, McDaniel allies can identify Mississippians who voted in the June 3 Democratic primary and match them against names of people who voted in the Republican runoff, although they would be prohibited from voting in both. That will not tell them whether two-time voters cast ballots in the runoff for Mr. McDaniel or Mr. Cochran.

The Cochran campaign calls the McDaniel figures for ineligible voters wildly exaggerated. And while some number of miscast votes might be found, nowhere near enough will be uncovered to change the results, said Austin Barbour, a Cochran campaign adviser.

He pointed to the Eastover precinct in Jackson where the McDaniel camp says 130 disputed ballots have been identified. But only 35 Democrats voted in that precinct on June 3.

"It had always been our hope that after the runoff ended, we could move to the general election," Mr. Barbour said. "We’ve been gracious to Senator McDaniel. Unfortunately, the time has come that we in the Cochran campaign can no longer sit silent about these baseless accusations."

The accusations are not going away.

...Dwayne Hall, vice president of the Miller County Patriots, a Tea Party group in Texarkana, Ark., says he has set up a Google alert for the McDaniel-Cochran fight and emails his network of fellow activists all the news from Mississippi.

“I’m no longer a member of the Republican Party, and I’d expect a lot of my fellow patriots to resign, too,” he said, adding: “I’m perfectly willing to do a protest vote in November if that’s my best option. I’m keeping that option open.”

Adam Brandon, executive vice president of the national Tea Party funder FreedomWorks, said Republican leaders like Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky may yet succeed in “smashing” Tea Party groups, but they are doing so at a great cost.

“The way activists feel treated by the party, they may stay home in November, and even if they do vote, I can tell you they’re not going door to door,” he said. “When Mitch McConnell says, ‘We’re going to stamp these guys out and smash them all over the country,’ how are Republicans going to win anywhere?”

It would be pretty funny if teabaggers voted for nominal Democrat, Blue Dog Travis Childers, in November, the same way African-Americans voted for Cochran in the runoff. It would be even funnier when Childers switches parties and becomes a Republican, which is pretty inevitable.