How Many Seats Will Steve Israel Cost House Democrats In November?

Israel's specialty: wasting resources on conservatives like Jennifer Garrison

Bill Scher is a respected liberal author and the online campaign manager at Campaign for America's Future. Maybe he was drunk when he wrote the How Obama's immigration push could hand the House to Democrats for The Week. Acknowledging that the Republicans can win back the Senate, he asserts-- with no evidence whatsoever and not even a superficial look at the reality on the political ground-- that the House is within the Democrats' grasp. Only Inside the Beltway would anyone float such utter nonsense and still be taken seriously the next day. The most fact-based line in his article is the first: "Everyone assumes that Republicans will easily hold the House in November." He should have quit while he was ahead but he quickly veers off into never-neverland: "the rapidly escalating immigration face-off between President Barack Obama and House Republicans raises the possibility that Democrats could win back the House." Alas, it doesn't.

And Scher knows it. The most key line in his entire essay: "Democrats failed to recruit strong challengers across the board." When Pelosi reappointed Steve Israel as DCCC Chair after his catastrophe 2012 debacle, the fate of the House Democrats was sealed. Israel is incompetent, allegedly in cahoots with the NRCC to protect his own seat and-- rather than the reptile Pelosi promised-- just plain stupid. No matter how awful the Republicans are-- and they are plenty awful-- the Democrats can't beat them without plausible, attractive candidates… and that is exactly what Israel and his woefully overrated DCCC has guaranteed.

Last year, David Damore, a polling analyst for the firm Latino Decisions, found that there are 44 congressional districts with Republican incumbents that could be ousted if their Latino constituents flex their electoral muscle. "This includes districts where the Latino voting-age population exceeds the 2012 margin of victory or swing districts won in 2012 by President Obama and the House Republican candidate that also have notable Latino populations," he wrote.

Now of course, not all of the 44 districts where Latinos can theoretically play a decisive role are considered competitive today. Damore recently lamented that Democrats failed to recruit strong challengers across the board. Professional congressional handicappers Stu Rothenberg, Charlie Cook, and Larry Sabato suggest that around 19 of these districts remain in play, including 16 Republicans running for re-election and three other seats where the Republican incumbent won't be on the ballot.

When was the last time those three ever got anything right until after the ballots were cast? Flipping 19 districts from red to blue? It's far more likely that, on net, the Republicans will flip a handful of districts from blue to red! Israel has even added some of his wretched, corrupt, conservative candidates to his ridiculous Red-to-Blue program who are in already blue seats-- just so he'll be able to say, as he sits in the wreckage of the 2014 campaign in November, "See, we won some Red to Blue seats." Democrat Emily Cain is running to replace Democrat Mike Michaud in a D+2 district he won with 58% in 2012 (and Obama won with 53%). Horrid Democrat Kathleen Rice is running to replace Democrat Carolyn McCarthy is a D+3 district she won with 62% in 2012 (and Obama won with 56%). And one of the only progressives on the whole list, Pat Murphy (who won his primary without any help from Israel) is running to replace Democrat Bruce Braley in a D+5 district he won with 57% in 2012 (and Obama won with 56%). How are these Red-to-Blue candidates-- other than to "balance out" absolutely guaranteed losers like Patrick Henry Hays, James Lee Witt and Jackie McPherson in blood red Arkansas districts, Jennifer Garrison in Ohio, John Lewis in Montana, Jerry Cannon in Michigan, George Sinner in North Dakota, and Glen Gainer and Nick Casey in blood red West Virginia districts and half a dozen impossible contests Israel is taking on instead of working on winnable seats against Republicans he's given free passes-- like Fred Upton (MI), Peter King (NY), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL), Dave Reichert (WA), Pat Meehan (PA), Paul Ryan (WI), Darrell Issa (CA), David Jolly (FL), Sean Duffy (WI), Reid Ribble (WI), Charlie Dent (PA), Richard Hanna (NY), Michael Turner (OH)…

And then there's Buck McKeon, who is retiring and leaving a Los Angeles County district that is rapidly turning blue and that Latino Decisions identified as a perfect takeover opportunity. Israel dragged his feet and did nothing to help progressive candidate Lee Rogers turn out voters in the California jungle primary-- the way Israel did to help corrupt conservative Pete Aguilar in a similar position a couple of districts further south-- and… chalk up another opportunity for a flip wrecked by Israel incompetence. Two extreme right-wing Republicans will face off in November, with no Democrat on the ballot, exactly what Israel had caused last cycle in CA-31. And now for Scher's lengthy caveat/plea for sanity:

Suddenly, the midterms might be all about immigration. Obama would be viewed by Latinos as the one guy trying to stick up for them, intransigent Republicans be damned. And that's big trouble for the GOP.

Obviously, a Democratic takeover of the House would remain a long shot. This sort of thing almost never happens in a two-term president's sixth year. And Democrats would effectively have to run the table, winning nearly all of the Latino-strong districts, and maybe picking off a few other Republicans facing tough races, while avoiding losses in the several competitive races involving Democratic incumbents. That would be neither easy nor likely. But it is possible.

Complicating matters for Democrats: Republicans representing increasingly influential Latino constituencies have been trying to keep the immigration monkey off their backs. Reps. Jeff Denham and David Valadao, Californians with particularly robust Latino constituencies, have gone as far as supporting Democratic legislation that would provide a path to citizenship for the undocumented. Others, like Nevada's Rep. Joe Heck, support narrower legislation that would allow citizenship for undocumented children. And some, like freshman Indiana Rep. Jackie Walorski, who barely won her seat in 2012, simply avoid taking firm positions. Democrats could have difficulty landing blows on such slippery targets.

Scher is actually right about almost everything except he's failed to factor in Israel-- which makes his whole premise moot. Had Pelosi appointed someone competent and less venal (she was looking for reptilian, she said, but got venal instead), all of Scher's premises would be in play and the chances for a Democratic House takeover would be worth discussing. With Israel running the show, the only thing worth discussing is how many net seats the Democrats will lose in November-- and who will replace Israel at the DCCC.