Is There A Reasonable Democratic Strategy For Mississippi?

Democrats regularly win statewide races in Maine and South Dakota, though DSCC executive director Guy Cecil, some kind of a self-loathing Beltway creature, has written off both states to the Republicans in November. He's much more excited about spending DSCC millions down in Mississippi on behalf of homophobic, anti-Choice Blue Dog Travis Childers. Don't forget, the last two times Democrats won Senate seats in Mississippi were when John Stennis was reelected in 1982, having first become a senator in 1947, and when James Eastland was reelected in 1972, having first become a senator in 1942. When Eastland retired and resigned early, Thad Cochran was appointed to fill the rest of his term and was then reelected for 6 consecutive 6 year terms. He's utterly senile and not capable of being any more than a figure head for his staff now.

If your career has something to do with being a professional Democrat, the Mississippi Senate race might be exciting. Same if you watch politics as a sporting event. Yes, someone with a bluish t-shirt, reactionary Blue Dog Travis Childers, is said by a few idiots to have a tiny chance to win a Senate seat…. if a bunch of unlikely scenarios place out. Sure, ruthless fascists in the McDaniel campaign locking themselves into a courthouse overnight and tampering with the ballots is a fun Republican story… but it is a Republican story, a Mississippi Republican story and what does it have to do with normal Americans?

By hook or by crook, McDaniel is likely to win the June 24 run-off.

Cochran carried large areas of the state on Tuesday, winning 52 of 82 counties. He was strong in metro Jackson, which gave him a 9,000 vote margin. He won the Biloxi-Gulfport and Tupelo-Columbus areas, but by lesser vote margins.

But in several areas where McDaniel won, he won big, with huge margins in his home area of the Pine Belt and tea party strongholds. The Hattiesburg-Laurel area gave him about a 12,000 vote margin.

McDaniel also appeared to pull a couple of upsets, or at least surprises for the Cochran campaign. He won what had been predicted as the battleground, DeSoto County, handily at 63 percent, although turnout there was relatively low. He topped Cochran slightly in Jackson County and kept Cochran's margins relatively slim elsewhere on the Coast, projected to be a Cochran stronghold.

Cochran is believed to have enjoyed at least a small amount of "crossover" Democrats voting for him in the Republican primary. That prospect will likely diminish in a runoff, and those who voted Democratic in the primary are prohibited from voting Republican in a runoff. They might not want to anyway. Democratic nominee Travis Childers is believed to stand a better shot-- albeit a long one-- of defeating McDaniel in a general where Mississippians tend to vote heavily Republican in federal elections.

Both campaigns' cupboards appear bare at this point. At last report, Cochran had $681,000 cash on hand; McDaniel, $237,000. Both are probably much lower after late-race spending on get-out-the-vote efforts.

Cochran raised at least $3.6 million for the primary; McDaniel, $1.2 million. But super PACs and other outside groups spent more than $8 million on the race, including $5 million from national tea-party-oriented groups for McDaniel.

Some of McDaniel's biggest outside benefactors on Wednesday were enthusiastically pledging more support. The Club for Growth PAC vowed to "vigorously pursue this race to its conclusion." Freedom Works for American vowed to "double down" its ground game help for McDaniel. Strapped for cash on his own, McDaniel needs the outside support.

Some of Cochran's third-party support, such as the National Republican Senatorial Committee appeared more reticent about spending more in a internecine Republican runoff battle.

But the Mississippi Conservatives PAC, run by former Gov. Haley Barbour's nephew Henry Barbour, plans to stay in the game. Barbour said the PAC is "reloading the weaponry."

And Cochran has been a consummate fundraiser himself and can likely raise at least enough to mount a serious three-week media campaign.

McDaniel's obvious strategy is to stay the course, capitalize on growing anti-Washington, anti-incumbent sentiment and keep his base fired up, waving signs and ready to vote.

"He was written off by the media and attacked by the establishment, yet here he stands on the cusp of making history," said Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund Chairman Jenny Beth Martin. "With all his momentum, I like his chances in three weeks."

Cochran needs a relatively large turnout for the runoff. He is going to have to clarify his message and keep his cadre of state Republican "establishment" leaders such as Gov. Phil Bryant working for him-- which may become more difficult as they read the tea (party) leaves.

"This race is now about whether we want a U.S. senator who puts Mississippi interests first or a U.S. senator controlled by the outside people who have hijacked the tea party," said Henry Barbour. "The message needs to be about what life would be like without Thad Cochran-- at Ingalls (shipyard) or Keesler Air Force Base or in Meridian-- without Thad Cochran and what life will be like with a candidate who just wants to be another Ted Cruz and make a bunch of speeches and not do anything for Mississippi."

Cochran is going to have to show up. His campaign is increasingly plagued by questions of whether the 76-year-old is actually engaged. His campaign events have been guarded by his handlers, with little or no advance notice to the general public or media, and stump speeches or interviews rare.

Notably, Cochran failed to appear before his supporters gathered Tuesday night for his campaign party. This move is likely to plague him for the next three weeks.

…Club for Growth issued a statement calling on Cochran to withdraw from the race.

Still, for all the Sturm und Drang, McDaniel only finished with around 1,000 more votes than Cochran-- 49.5%. No one can be sure he's going to win what's likely to be a low-turn-out primary runoff. And if he does, the likelihood that he'd beat Childers anymore is enormous.

[E]ven if the national political environment favors Democrats on Election Day, the effect in the Mississippi will probably be minimal. Mississippi is inelastic; it has few swing voters. The state’s large black population routinely gives 90 percent or more of its vote to Democrats, while the white population usually doles out 80 percent or more of its vote to Republicans.

Democrats don’t just lose; they tend to lose by the same amount year after year. In gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections since 2003, every Democratic candidate got between 35 percent and 46 percent of the vote.

It’s possible that Childers will break this streak: He has shown he can win over conservative voters. The state’s 1st District, which he represented in Congress, was more Republican than the state as a whole.

But the partisan gravity in Mississippi is strong and hard to reverse. Childers is a clear underdog.

Clearly, if McDaniel wins, the brain surgeons Guy Cecil at the DSCC hopes to elect a far right fake-Democrat, who would probably switch parties before his term was even half up, and who will certainly be much further right than Manchin. Judging by everything he's been up to since he took over the committee by selecting a weak and ineffective boss, Michael Bennet, Cecil, seems to think this is a far more effective strategy than trying to win states where actual Democrats actually win elections, like Maine (Shenna Bellows) and South Dakota (Rick Weiland). Instead of wasting your resources on trying to elect a Republican disguised as a Democrat in a state that won't elect Democrats, please consider chipping in for Shenna and Rick here.