How Extreme A Candidate Would Mississippi Republicans Have To Nominate To Hand A Senate Seat To Blue Dog Travis Childers?

I have a crazy old ex-boss why still calls from time to time, usually to harass me about politics, which he sort of follows from time to time. His father was a ward boss in the Bronx when FDR was president and later a municipal judge. My friend is a life-long Democrat, although he loves Rudy Giuliani "for keeping us safe" and because he's a HUGE fan of "stop and frisk." He constantly berates me for "your boy Obama" no matter how many times I tell him I voted for the Green Party candidate, not for Obama. And his ideal Democrats are Bill and Hill. He loves the Clintons. He's worth tens of millions of dollars-- maybe $100 million-- and I bet if Hillary runs he could be persuaded to make a $20 contribution to her campaign. Historically, his favorite Democrats have been southern conservatives. He delights in yammering about the glory of old-time racists like John Sparkman and Lister Hill from Alabama, Richard Russell and Herman Talmadge from Georgia, Spessard Holland, Claude Pepper and George Smathers from Florida, Sam Ervin from North Carolina and Ted Bilbo, John Stennis and James Eastland of Mississippi. He called yesterday out of the blue and went on and on about how great everything was when Stennis and Eastland were in the Senate (Stennis from 1947 until 1989 and Eastland from 1943 'til 1978). Stennis' conservatism was replaced by Trent Lott's and Eastland's by Thad Cochran's, ending Democratic control of Mississippi's two Senate seats that went back to the end of Reconstruction in the mid/late 1800s. Since Eastland and Stennis retired, respectively in 1978 and 1989, Democrats never had a chance. Could that streak end next year?

A Blue Dog Democrat as conservative as Eastland and Stennis ever were, Travis Childers, has expressed interest in running for the Senate. If you've been reading DWT for a while, you probably know all about Childers and his anti-Choice, anti-women, anti-gay, anti-healthcare, pro-NRA brand of "Democrat." He stretches the Democrats' Big Tent beyond where most grassroots Democrats think it should stretch to and he was a nightmare for House Dems for his one term in Congress, voting with the Republicans on just about every important issue. He was predictably defeated in the Great Blue Dog Apocalypse of 2010. If Cochran doesn't run for reelection-- or is defeated by deranged Tea Party extremist Chris McDaniel-- Childers senses an opportunity.

Cochran has said he will make a decision by the end of the month.

Childers said he would be "less apt" to run if Cochran does, though he declined to rule it out. He sounds as though he would attempt to appeal to Cochran supporters, calling it "kind of odd" that McDaniel got into the race before Cochran's announcement.

"Probably nobody within the state of Mississippi has more respect for (Cochran) than I do," Childers said.

Childers, a Blue Dog Democrat, would likely need to benefit from a hard-fought GOP primary and/or a wounded GOP nominee. Moderate and Blue Dog Democrats have won a number of Senate races in recent years thanks to GOP infighting and flawed nominees.

A fellow Blue Dog, then-Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), won his seat in 2012 after Richard Mourdock upended longtime Sen. Richard Lugar in the Indiana GOP Senate primary. Similarly, Sens. Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Jon Tester (Mont.) and Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.) defeated flawed GOP nominees in states that Mitt Romney easily carried in the 2012 presidential race.

McDaniel is plumb loco and may be too radical even for Mississippi (see video up top). And he's running, no matter what Cochran decides. If Cochran decides to retire-- a very distinct possibility-- there are more Establishment type Republicans, like Secretary of State Delbert Hoseman, state Auditor Stacey Pickering, Rep. Gregg Harper and Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves who might want to run and who may beat the teabagger. BUT, what Childers would be counting on is that McDaniel wins and he can claim the conservative mantle and paint McDaniel as the dangerous radical.

Brand new polling shows Mississippi voters want someone they perceive as more conservative than Thad Cochran as their next senator. And in a head to head primary between Cochran and McDaniel… very close.

From the PPP analysis:

Cochran's path to renomination looks difficult based on these numbers. Mississippi is an uphill battle for Democrats even without the drop off in black turnout you usually see in a midterm electorate, but they may have some chance at being competitive if Republicans nominate someone conservative enough.

…Cochran's approval numbers with Republican voters have dropped precipitously over the last two years. In November of 2011 we found him with a 74/14 approval spread with them, but that's declined now to 45/42. Unsurprisingly Cochran's problems are coming with the furthest right segment of his party. Among voters describing themselves as 'very conservative' he has just a 34/55 approval spread, trails McDaniel 51/32 head to head, and loses out to a generic 'more conservative' alternative 74/22.

If Cochran is the Republican nominee for the Senate next year the seat likely won't be competitive. He actually has a positive approval rating with Democrats at 44/40 and that crossover support would make him close to unbeatable in a general election. He leads Travis Childers, who has actually floated the possibility of running, 50/33 in a head to head. He's also up 50/37 on Ronnie Musgrove and 45/43 on Jim Hood in hypothetical contests.

If McDaniel is the Republican nominee though it looks like there's at least some chance at a competitive race forming. He leads both Childers (41/38) and Musgrove (44/41) by just 3 points in head to heads and actually trails Hood by a couple points at 43/41. McDaniel just doesn't have the same kind of support across party lines that Cochran does.