GOP Leadership Battles Wednesday And Thursday

Wednesday morning the 233 House Republicans will get together and vote for a replacement for Eric Cantor as Majority Leader. Since he already has commitments from way more than the 117 Members needed to ascend the predetermined leadership ladder, Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will surely beat the wacko-bird caucus fave, Raúl Labrador. Labrador is being pushed by Hate Talk Radio hosts (who claim they defeated Cantor and think they have the right to name his successor) and by FreedomWorks. Whatever chance Labrador had-- basically none-- he wound up with even less of a chance after last week's Idaho Republican Party convention, which he chaired, descended into mayhem and open civil war, ending in embarrassment and catastrophe. The Republican Establishment types look at that and shudder, thinking it's exactly what Labrador and his cronies would bring right into the House.

With McCarthy moving up from his Whip position, the "natural order of things," would be for his Chief Deputy Whip, Peter Roskam (R-IL) to move up to the Chief Whip position the following day. If this was the Democratic Party-- currently even more hierarchical and hidebound than the GOP-- that is exactly what would happen. But Southerners are bawling that they want a seat at the leadership table-- and Roskam's promise to appoint some southern yahoo as his chief deputy dawg whip, isn't cutting it for them. At this point, Louisiana's Steve Scalise is looking like the front-runner as the southerners, teabaggers and even some natural Roskam allies-- like Aaron Schock (R-IL) and Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) who have their own ambitions in mind and want to curry favor with the far right-- galvanize around him.

Both Scalise and Roskam have a problem in Marlin Stutzman of Indiana, who is less identified with the current leadership team than either of them and is usually seen as a Tea Party sympathizer and an extremist. But Indiana is only part of the South in spirit, not geographically. TheTea Party forces who feel they deserve something for defeating Cantor-- even if they didn't really do anything to defeat Cantor-- are confused about who to back, Scalise or Stutzman. Neo-fascist Jim Jordan, a power among the most ideologically extreme rightists in Congress, is backing Stutzman. Neither Roskam nor Scalise can say anything to demean Stutzman since he is likely to hold the balance of power Wednesday after the first couple of votes show that the caucus is deadlocked.

Most Americans look at all this intra-party bickering with as much disdain as they have for the fighting in Iraq between the Sunnis, Shia and Kurds. Much of the ultimate decision will revolve around personal relationships, and transactional deal-making. Who has, or is likely to, help each Member raise the most campaign cash, for example? Somewhat awkwardly, Roskam has moderate Illinois Senator Mark Kirk, a former Representative, calling his old friends in the House, pumping for his fellow Illinoisian. Yesterday's Wall Street Journal termed the Whip race a nail-biter.

The race will be a test of whether conservatives have the clout and organization to coalesce around one standard-bearer who could influence the party's agenda from the right. All three men are members of the conservative study committee, but as a current member of GOP leadership, Mr. Roskam is considered slightly more centrist.

Mr. Cantor's defeat reflects "a growing disillusionment among conservatives with our current leadership team," Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R., Kan.) said Sunday. Replacing Mr. McCarthy with Mr. Roskam would be "exactly what one would expect from a D.C. establishment that's not listening."

So far Republicans who have publicly declared for Roskam, the Establishment candidate, are Rodney Davis and Randy Hultgren from his own state, Boehner allies Mike Simpson (ID), Pat Tiberi (OH), Kay Granger (TX), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL), Candice Miller (MI), Diane Black (TN), Trey Gowdy (SC), Randy Forbes (VA), Steve Southerland (FL), Richard Hudson (NC), Jeff Miller (FL) and Mike Kelly (PA).