Saturday, June 14, 2014

Who Will Save Iraq Now-- Obama? Rouhani? The Anunnaki? A Negotiated Rational Partition?

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The Fertile Crescent-- the Tigris and Euphrates River valley-- has a history that predates the Nile Valley's. Even if you don't give much credence to the History Channel's whacky Ancient Aliens series that insists that the Mesopotanians' Anunnaki were extraterrestrials, this Cradle of Civilization was, over time, dominated by the Sumerians, Akkadians, Babylonians, Assyrians, Medians, Achaemenids, Seleucids, Parthians, Sassanians, Arabs, Mongols, Turkmen and, between 1533 and 1918, the Ottoman Turks. The Ottomans had three provinces-- Mosul (kurdish), Baghdad (Sunni) and Basra (Shia)-- in what is now Iraq. "Now" because the British took this part of the Ottoman Empire over after World War I and arbitrarily merged them into a Hashemite oligarchy, which was always in a state of revolt by independence-seeking Kurds and Shia. The British granted their creation, a Sunni kingdom, independence in 1932. An unending series of coups followed and, during World War II, the British took over again. Independence, instability and dictatorship followed. There is no conceivable reason why Iraq should even exist as it does today and, in fact, history shows it absolutely shouldn't and probably can't. The Ottoman's probably had it right with their three vilayets.

This morning I was wondering if Obama and Rouhani are talking about what to do about the Sunni insurgency there. I knew better than to search for answers in U.S. media. The Guardian was the first placed I looked this morning. And lo: Iran sends troops into Iraq to aid fight against ISIS militants-- Tehran and Washington form fragile alliance to aid Nouri al-Maliki as jihadist group threatens to take Baghdad. Those 800 ISIS conquerers we keep hearing about who have routed the U.S.-trained and equipped Iraqi army will now face 2,000 Iranina troops who have crossed the border since Thursday. Rouhani, reports The Guardian, "made reference to the fact Tehran was cooperating with its old enemy Washington to defeat the Sunni insurgent group-- which is attempting to ignite a sectarian war beyond Iraq's borders." Republican warmongers-- ignoring Iranian interests of course-- are demanding Obama start bombing immediately. He isn't as reckless and full of bluster as they are… but is likely to start bombing anyway-- cooperating-- albeit quietly-- with Iran.
1,500 basiji forces had crossed the border into the town of Khanaqin, in Diyala province, in central Iraq on Friday, while another 500 had entered the Badra Jassan area in Wasat province overnight. The Guardian confirmed on Friday that Major General Qassem Suleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards elite Quds Force, had arrived in Baghdad to oversee the defence of the capital.

There is growing evidence in Baghdad of Shia militias continuing to reorganise, with some heading to the central city of Samarra, 70 miles (110km) north of the capital, to defend two Shia shrines from Sunni jihadist groups surrounding them.

The volunteers signing up were responding to a call by Iraq's most revered Shia cleric, the Iranian-born grand ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, to defend their country after Isis seized Mosul and Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit in a lightning advance. Samarra is now the next town in the Islamists' path to Baghdad.

"Citizens who can carry weapons and fight the terrorists in defence of their country, its people and its holy sites should volunteer and join the security forces," Sheik Abdul-Mahdi al-Karbalaie, Sistani's representative, said on Friday in a sermon at the holy Shia city of Kerbala.

He warned that Iraq faced great danger and that fighting the militants "is everybody's responsibility, and is not limited to one specific sect or group," Associated Press reported. Karbalaie's comments have consistently been thought to reflect Sistani's views.

…The US and Iran, foes throughout the US occupation of Iraq, share a common interest in defeating Isis, and Iran has so far expressed no opposition to US threats to send military support to the beleaguered Maliki.
It looks like Obama will provide airstrikes against the rampaging insurgents while Rouhani provides the boots on the ground. And suddenly the chimera of an Iranian nuclear deal is back in the news. The Voice of America reported this morning that there could be a deal ready in time for the July 20 deadline. Rouhani: "The disputes can be resolved with goodwill and flexibility ... I believe that the July 20 deadline can be met despite remaining disputes. If not, we can continue the talks for a month or more."

Last week Texas neo-fascist leader Ted Cruz happily predicted that Israel would bomb Iranian nuclear sites in a couple of months. This is the preferred outcome both for far right in Israel and the far right within Congress. 



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