FL-15 In Play

I noticed something strange on a random DCCC website the other day. The page itself is just a front to sucker climate change activists into giving up their e-mail addresses to the DCCC so they can solicit contributions and sell the info to other vendors.-- one of those phony "sign my petition" pages they always use: "Sign the petition now to demand Congress Take Action on Climate before it's too late." No big deal. But the names of the candidates on the page were totally random-- except one. Can you pick out the one that is different from the rest?

Rep. Ami Bera

Rep. Tim Bishop

Rep. Linda Sanchez

Rep. Brad Schneider

Rep. Mark Takano

Rep. Paul Tonko

Erin Bilbray, Candidate for Congress

Alan Cohn, Candidate for Congress

Domenic Recchia, Candidate for Congress

Unless you live in Connecticut, where he won a Peabody Award for TV investigative journalism or in the Tampa area where he was a popular newscaster on WFTS, if you said, "I never heard of Alan Cohn," you'd be correct. But that should change… and fast.

Cohn is running for Congress in the FL-15 seat currently occupied by reactionary multimillionaire Dennis Ross. Cohn's vision for governance is solidly progressive and far more in tune with mainstream American political thought. The DCCC has ignored the race as has the Beltway political media. That gave Cohn and opportunity to spend a year building his campaign without any interference. A poll about to be released by Anzalone Liszt Grobe Research, usually thought of as the Blue Dog polling firm, is about the change the way FL-15 is being looked at and put it on the national radar. This should be out tomorrow:

Congressional challenger Alan Cohn is in position to unseat two-term incumbent Dennis Ross in Florida’s 15th Congressional District. Despite the conservative nature of this district, this seat is very much in play, given Ross’ disconnect from the average voter and Cohn’s profile as an investigate reporter who has stood up to corruption and is not afraid to take on the powerful. If he can acquire sufficient resources to sustain a robust paid communication campaign, Alan Cohn has a chance to defeat Dennis Ross and pick up a Congressional seat for Democrats.

Dennis Ross is a weakly known incumbent

• Our June benchmark survey shows that Ross is unknown to a majority of voters in FL-15 (22% favorable / 19% unfavorable / 60% can’t rate). This is a daunting number for any incumbent and is indicative of the constituent outreach Ross has in this district.

• Dennis Ross is an untested incumbent who won his Congressional seat in the 2010 Republican wave. Redistricting changed the district to include more of Hillsborough County, and Ross was uncontested in 2012. Alan Cohn has the ability to surprise Ross and the NRCC in a race that is not currently on the national political radar.


After balanced positives, Alan Cohn and Dennis Ross are statistically tied

• Cohn trails Dennis Ross in the current vote by -7 points (35% Cohn / 42% Ross / 23% undecided). However, after reading balanced paragraphs on each candidate, Cohn trails by only -2 points and is statistically tied, within the survey’s margin of error (45% Cohn / 47% Ross / 8% undecided).

• In the informed vote, Cohn opens a +10 point lead in Hillsborough County and a +17 point lead among registered NPA and minor party voters. This coalition can help Cohn overcome the slight Republican tilt to the district, if Cohn has the proper resources to target swing voters in paid communications.

• Non-white voters (+33 points) and African-Americans (+47 points) are also strong Cohn supporters. Any help to expand the electorate (particularly in Lakeland) and boost field efforts can make this a more diverse electorate and more favorable terrain for Cohn.


Charlie Crist shows the ability for crossover support, overcoming generic Republican preference

• In a generic ballot for Congress, voters in FL-15 prefer a Republican candidate by +6 points (37% Dem. Candidate / 43% GOP candidate / 12% depends / 4% neither / 4% don’t know).

• However, Charlie Crist and Rick Scott are neck-and-neck in the race for Governor (45% Crist / 46% Scott / 9% undecided). FL-15 is in the Tampa media market, and part of Crist’s home base. Cohn can benefit from Crist’s Democratic coattails at the top of the ticket, if he has the resources to introduce himself as a fresh voice who will look out for the middle class and stand up to Congress.

Adam Smith, the dean of Florida political reporters interviewed Cohn a couple weeks ago and reminded his his readers that even though the district has a Republican tilt, Democratic Senator Bill Nelson won it overwhelmingly in 2012.

"Dennis Ross is part of that small belligerent tea party group that is saying no to anything, who would rather see the ship sink than reach across the aisle and solve problems," said Cohn, arguing that the right candidate with the right message can win the seat regardless of party affiliation.

Alan Grayson, one district over, told me about Cohn and said he's a serious and solid candidate. That was enough to make me call him and listen to what he had to say about why he is running and what he'd like to accomplish in Washington for the people in Polk and Hillsborough counties. He's anything but a mystery meat candidate and he has a clear and cohesive platform on his website that explains exactly where he stands on the issues people in central Florida are concerned with. How's this for a start: "The big banks and Wall Street interests that fund the campaigns of 'friends in Congress' have had their recovery; now it’s time for relief for America’s middle class. I want an economic recovery that includes small business owners and all hard working families whose income has failed to keep up with the cost of living. Reform means ensuring any new laws regarding bank fees, ATM fees, credit cards, mortgage lenders, and insurance companies work for consumers, not just for corporations. Future political action should include laws freeing small businesses from regulations that strangle innovation and ingenuity, while protecting workers rights, and workplace safety."

He backs comprehensive immigration reform, trade with Cuba, increasing the minimum wage, marriage equality, and a strong, well-funded public education system. When it comes to energy policy he believes that decreasing dependence on foreign oil is good for the country and good for the district:

Solar energy and biomass are the only local energy resources for Florida. Investing in these resources provides enormous economic opportunities for entrepreneurs and local businesses to create job opportunities for residents of the 15th Congressional District.

• Solar power provides the biggest economic opportunities because it’s the fastest growing energy industry globally. Solar power grew at an annual growth rate of ~50% globally from 2000 – 2012. Therefore, it presents economic opportunities for investment in manufacturing as well as deployment in Florida.
• Solar power generates seven times the number of jobs that would be based on a conventional power plant.
• Florida was the global leader in manufacturing of solar panels in the 1970s and early 80s. Because of the new global demand and the resulting clean environment we can create opportunities for entrepreneurs in Florida to make the Sunshine State a global leader in solar panels again.
• Producing biofuels from our biomass resources provides economic opportunities for local businesses.

By investing in renewable energy research and developing public policies that open up business opportunities for entrepreneurs in Florida, we will create new jobs while helping families living in the 15th Congressional District lower their energy bills through the use of less expensive, renewable energy.

If you'd like to help make sure Alan has the resources he needs to compete effectively against Ross, you can contribute to his campaign here.