Americans Favor Immigration Reform, So Who Doesn't? Fox Viewers, The Tea Party And Texas Republicans

CA-25 is the northeast corner of L.A. county-- Santa Clarita and the Antelope Valley-- plus a sliver of Ventura County (Simi Valley). It's a suburban area that has long been held by Republicans but in 2012 Lee Rogers won in the Antelope Valley and came closer to dislodging forever-incumbent Buck McKeon than anyone else ever had. So close, in fact, that McKeon decided to trade his job in Congress for a job on K Street this year. That was lucky for the GOP-- and bad news for the Democrats. Two Republicans, Tony Strickland and Steve Knight jumped into the jungle primary along with Lee Rogers. Turnout was so abysmal-- particularly in Democratic/Hispanic areas-- that the #1 and #2 slots went to Strickland and Knight. They will face off in November. Rogers is out of the running.

Strickland and Knight are not just anti-immigrant; both are fanatics. Knight has voted against every single pro-immigrant bill that has ever come up in the state legislature, including bills that other Republicans have backed. It would not be a stretch to point out that both are xenophobic bigots and vicious hate mongers. The graphic up top, however, shows that about a year ago 31.5% of the voters in CA-25 were Latino and that a whopping 73% of all voters there favor comprehensive immigration reform.

This chart shows how the traditional Republican advantage has been nearly obliterated by Latino voter registration drives in the Antelope Valley. The five-point spread in party registration that the GOP enjoyed two years ago is now just a one-point spread today. In fact, the Democrats have narrowed the gap by 2.6% since December 31. By November, there will be more registered Democrats in CA-25 than registered Republicans. If only they had turned out to vote in the primary!

The Public Religion Research Institute and the Brookings Institution released a new poll this morning showing that Americans overwhelmingly support comprehensive immigration reform along the lines of what the Democratic Senate has passed and the Republican House has refused to vote on. 62% of respondents say they favor allowing illegal immigrants a way to become citizens. Only 19% of respondents agree with deportation-- self or otherwise-- the Republican Party answer to immigration. 70% of Democrats, 61% of Independents, and 51% of Republicans support a pathway to citizenship.

Although deportations of immigrants who are in the country illegally have increased since the beginning of the Obama administration, only one-quarter (25%) of Americans correctly state that deportations have increased over the past five or six years. Close to half (45%) of Americans believe that the number of deportations has stayed the same, while nearly 1-in-5 (18%) say deportations have decreased. Public knowledge about the level of deportations has remained unchanged since last year.

• Democrats (30%) and independents (27%) are more likely than Republicans (18%) to report correctly that the number of deportations has increased over the past five or six years.

• Only 12% of Americans who most trust Fox News for accurate information about politics and current events correctly believe deportations have increased.

Compared to one year ago, Americans are less likely to say that immigrants are having a negative economic impact on the country.

• Today, Americans are equally as likely to believe that illegal immigration helps the economy by providing low-cost labor (45%) as they are to say that it hurts the economy by driving down wages (46%). In March 2013, a majority (56%) of Americans said that illegal immigrants negatively impact the economy by driving down wages.

• Seven-in-ten (70%) Americans now say that immigrants coming to the country today mostly take jobs Americans do not want, while only 22% say they take jobs away from American citizens. Last year, Americans were somewhat less likely to say immigrants are taking unwanted jobs (64%).

American attitudes about the cultural impact of immigrants have also been moving in a more positive direction over the last year.

• Today, nearly 6-in-10 (58%) Americans say that the growing number of newcomers from other countries strengthens American society compared to 37% who say that newcomers threaten traditional American customs and values.

• As recently as 2010, Americans were divided in their views about the influence immigrants were having on American society; 44% said they threaten traditional customs and values while equal numbers (44%) said they strengthen American society.

…Among all registered voters, opposing immigration reform is more of a liability for candidates than an asset.

• Fifty-three percent of voters say they would be less willing to vote for a candidate who opposes immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship for immigrants currently living in the U.S. illegally. Only 16 percent say they would be more likely to support a candidate who opposes immigration reform, while 30 percent say that a candidate’s position on this issue would make no difference to their vote.

• Even among Republican voters, opposing immigration reform carries more political risk than benefit. Nearly half (46%) of Republican voters say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who opposes immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship, while 21% say they would be more likely to support such a candidate. Three-in-ten (30%) Republican voters say it would not make a difference to their vote either way.

• Among religious voters, opposing immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship is also more of a liability than an asset. Among all major religious groups, at least twice as many voters say they would be less likely to support a candidate who opposes a path to citizenship as say they would be more likely to support such a candidate.

Nearly 4-in-10 (37%) voters believe the Republican Party’s position on immigration reform will hurt the GOP in the 2014 elections, compared to only 11% who say it will help the party. A plurality (44%) of voters believe the GOP’s current position on immigration will not have any discernible effect on the party’s fortunes in 2014.

At this point in the 2014 election season, Americans are relatively disengaged.

• Only 16 percent say they are following news about the 2014 congressional campaigns in their district or state very closely.

• Only about half (51%) the public say they are absolutely sure of voting in the 2014 congressional election. Roughly 1-in-5 (21%) say they will probably vote, while one-quarter (25%) say their chances of voting are 50-50 or less.

Elise Foley at HuffPo offered a simple explanation for the ignorance (and bigotry) behind the minority of Americans refusing to accept reform: Fox. She wrote that many of the people who oppose immigration reform watch Fox News and that trusting Fox News was "the most powerful independent predictor of opposition to a path to citizenship."

"Where Americans get their news matters, and Fox News appears to play a powerful role in shaping the views of both Republicans and independents on immigration reform," E. J. Dionne, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said in a press release. "Republicans and independents who most trust Fox News are nearly 20 percentage points less likely to support a path to citizenship than those who turn to other television sources."

Slightly more than half of Republicans -- 53 percent -- said they trusted Fox News most among TV networks on politics and current events, according to the poll. The survey also found those Republicans were more conservative than GOP supporters who listed other TV networks as their top source of news.

On immigration, the divide was especially pronounced. While 60 percent of Republicans who said they trusted non-Fox News outlets most said they support allowing undocumented immigrants to eventually become citizens, only 42 percent of Republicans who prefer Fox News said the same. One-third of Fox News-favoring Republicans agreed with the statement that "immigrants strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents." Among GOP supporters who trust other networks more, 56 percent agreed.

Hosts and guests on Fox News, the most-watched cable news channel, have a long history of criticizing immigration reform, from disparaging a bill that passed the Senate last year, to questioning President Barack Obama's record on deportations.

And then there's the Tea Party which, particularly in the South, is, at least in part, a kind of polite, moderne version of the KKK. And nowhere worse than in Texas, home of a new GOP star, Lt. Governor nominee Dan Patrick. His career is based on racism, bigotry and hate-mongering. Those 19% of Americans who want to deport Hispanics… that's his constituency-- and the constituencies of other Republicans like him, your Steve Kings and Cory Gardners. Patrick, a Tea Party state Senator, at the GOP state convention: "We must not step back from being bold on the issue that impacts the county and this state. There are people pouring over our border every week."

A few hours after the speech, the party approved a new immigration plan that, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, called for a ban on in-state tuition for undocumented immigrants, outlawing the "knowing employment" of immigrants in the country illegally, and generally avoiding "amnesty." Notably, the new GOP plan did not include support for a guest-worker program. The newly adopted platform is something of a departure from Texas Republicans trying to take a somewhat more moderate approach in the last few years to attract an increasingly valuable Hispanic population in Texas.

Beyond that though it also shows how tea partiers within the Republican Party are also increasingly becoming the Texas Republican Party.

…While the tea party brand-- if not its ideology-- is suffering elsewhere, in Texas the movement is alive and strong.

"It’s still an insurgency,” Cruz said in an interview with The Washington Post recently. “It’s an insurgency of millions of people across Texas and millions of people across America who are standing up to turn our nation around.”

On Friday, Cruz seemed to echo the hardline immigration approach tea partiers prefer by arguing in an op-ed that President Barack Obama's "lawlessness" on immigration has helped cause a spike in illegal immigration. It earned him a winning spot in the 14-person presidential candidate straw poll at the convention. Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) placed fourth.

…Democrats argue that Patrick's victory actually helps the chances of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis and lieutenant gubernatorial candidate Leticia Van De Putte because Patrick is so conservative on immigration policy. They believe his previous statements will repel Hispanic voters from the GOP.

"He said he's coming to into our Latino communities but the harsh, 
insulting tone he has taken has disrespected them and where they live," Van De Putte said according to the Associated Press. "It's very difficult to ask people to go into their home when you've insulted them."

If Latino turnout in Texas is similar to what it was in CA-25 last week, the racists and bigots like Cruz and Patrick have nothing to worry about for a very long time.