DownWithTyranny!: Can Eric Cantor Really Be Defeated In His Reelection Bid?

Last year Steve Israel and his band of incompetent and corrupt DCCC staffers treated Wayne Powell, the courageous Democrat who ran against Eric Cantor, shabbily that this year-- predictably-- Israel got the result he wanted: no credible Democratic candidate bothering to challenge Cantor. A well-connected Powell backer told me earlier this year that the consensus among Democrats in the district was that it was senseless to run while Pelosi still had Israel as the DCCC chair and he was undercutting Cantor opponents.

VA-07 (R+10) would be a tough slog for any Democrat. To have the head of the DCCC undermining and back-biting just makes it too ugly to even invest all the time, resources and effort. Last cycle, despite Israel's lack of support, 157,249 (41%) of VA-07 voters opted for Powell. He wrestled Cantor to a 50/50 tie in the part of the district that's made up of Richmond City and he made some spectacular inroads in Henrico County. Although Cantor spent $7,477,917 to Powell's $800,647, Powell did better against him than any Democrat had ever done before. This year Michael Dickinson, a restaurant management consultant, is the Democrat running against Cantor. He isn't being backed by the DCCC and he's raised $89,611 so far-- to Cantor's $4,997,991. Cantor, however, is not sleep-walking to victory. As we've mentioned before, he has some rumblings on the right to worry about.

Dave Brat, a deranged Ayn Rand fanatic, seems politically insane. But yesterday's Washington Post carried a story by Robert Costa and Jenna Portnoy claiming that he's picking up momentum, pointing out that Cantor is "engaged in open warfare with the GOP’s insurgent wing" (the Tea Party).

This week, Cantor’s opponent in the June 10 primary-- a tea party activist named David Brat-- is gaining national attention as a potential threat to Cantor’s hold on his solidly Republican, suburban Richmond district. Brat has won support from some big-name conservatives and has tapped into discontent across Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. On Wednesday, Brat planned to travel to Washington to meet with leading conservative agitators, a sign that his effort is starting to be taken seriously at the national level.

The intraparty drama is the latest reflection of the deepening chasm in the Republican Party across Virginia and the nation. And it is all the more remarkable because it is happening to a man widely seen as the likely next speaker of the House.

Most Republicans continue to believe Cantor is safe; he won a primary challenge two years ago with nearly 80 percent of the vote. But the prospect of a competitive and bruising challenge to the second-ranking Republican in Congress is embarrassing to Cantor-- and is rattling GOP leaders at a time when the party is trying to unify its divided ranks.

“The conservatives are becoming more vocal,” said Thomas J. Bliley Jr., Cantor’s political mentor and predecessor in the House. “Once I was elected back in 1980, I didn’t have a primary fight for the 20 years I was there, and this is the first time Eric has had a serious or semi-serious primary opponent. You have people who are frankly disgusted with Washington, and he is a visible symbol.”

A key moment came last weekend. Speaking Saturday to Republican activists gathered in a Hilton ballroom outside Richmond, Cantor tried to reason with conservatives who have embraced Brat.

“It’s easy to say that you’re going to stand up to Obama and the left-wing attack machine, but it is an entirely different thing to actually do it,” a combative Cantor said, “to actually do it, to stand up and be counted.”

The tea partyers weren’t buying it. They booed Cantor, cheered for Brat and even ousted Cantor’s right-hand man as 7th District Republican Committee chairman in favor of one of their own.

Brat, an economics professor at Randolph-Macon College in Ashland, has positioned himself to the right of Cantor, charging that the majority leader’s national profile and association with the GOP political class have hurt him. Brat also accuses Cantor of supporting amnesty for people who came to this country illegally-- a charge Cantor denies-- and criticizes the incumbent for allowing an increase in the debt ceiling and voting for a budget that didn’t defund the Affordable Care Act.

…Brat has won the favor of national conservative heroes Ann Coulter and syndicated talk-radio host Mark Levin. And on Wednesday, he was scheduled to attend a breakfast in Washington hosted by the anti-tax activist Grover Norquist and a lunch with conservative operatives.

Zachary Werrell, Brat’s campaign manager, said the candidate has enjoyed a significant boost in fundraising since the weekend convention and now has twice as much cash on hand as in the last filing period.

Some Republicans believe the results of the internal party vote for 7th District chairman was a warning sign for Cantor, who lost the vote even after pulling out the stops on behalf of longtime incumbent chairman Linwood Cobb.

Cantor’s associates churned out mailers to support Cobb, a friend since he and Cantor met at a local Rotary Club meeting in 1992. Cantor’s camp paid $3 apiece in postage to send personalized trinkets to party loyalists. And on convention day, the committee bought up all the Short Pump Hilton’s conference rooms to stymie Brat and provided day care for the kids of Cobb supporters. Cantor hosted a breakfast.

In the end, Fred Gruber defeated Cobb, 52 percent to 48 percent.

“This is a man and his team that’s had a mission of removing conservatives within his own district,” said Jamie Radtke, a tea party leader and former U.S. Senate candidate. “It was a sweet victory.”

Despite the vocal tea party minority, Bliley stressed that Cantor will be safe. Democrats, he noted, aren’t even in the game.

“This is still the most Republican district in the state, from the west end of Richmond to Culpeper,” Bliley said, “and once he gets through this, the Democrats don’t have a candidate-- no one filed.”