You Know Tuesday Is Do Or Die For The Democratic Party, Right?

Sink, Bircher, Jolly, Peters, some other guy

Once Bill Young announced his retirement October 9 and then quickly died on October 18, we've written about the campaign to replace him in FL-13 a few times (here and here). Just before he announced his retirement, a poll from PPP for MoveOn.org showed a generic Democrat beating Young.

FL-13 is, basically, Pinellas County. When Alex Sink ran for governor against Rick Scott in 2010, he narrowly edged her statewide 2,589,915 (49%) to 2,522,857 (48%). It wasn't that close in Pinellas County, however. Sink beat him 153,747 (51%) to 136,577 (45%). National Democrats have been winning FL-13 for two solid decades and Obama beat McCain 51-48% and beat Romney 50-49%. The election is March 11 and Sink is the Democratic candidate. The whole party has coalesced around her. The Republicans have a tough primary next Tuesday with three candidates, David Jolly, a sleazy lobbyist, Kathleen Peters, a state Rep, and wild card Mark Bircher, a retired Marine Corp Brigadier General. (This morning the final poll was released showing Jolly winning with Peters falling so far behind that even Bircher beats her-- Jolly, 37%, Bircher, 27% and Peters 24%.)

Pinellas Congressional candidate David Jolly said he supports the ban that prevents oil drilling off Florida's Gulf Coast, a perennially important issue in local politics.

But he's facing questions over his own 2011 federal lobbying report, which indicates he lobbied for a House bill designed to expand oil drilling in the Gulf and elsewhere.

Under the "specific lobbying issues" listed in his report, Jolly included House Resolution 909, "A Roadmap for America's Energy Future."

A typically backward-looking Beltway pundit, Stu Rothenberg (backward-looking but, of course, highly regarded inside the Beltway by far more ignorant politicians and hack staffers than he is). Rothenberg insists the FL-13 race is a must win for Democrats, but, presumably, not for Republicans, who would be losing the seat. Here's the conventional wisdom Rothenberg is so highly regarded for:

A loss in the competitive March 11 contest would almost certainly be regarded by dispassionate observers as a sign that President Barack Obama could constitute an albatross around the neck of his party’s nominees in November. And that could make it more difficult for Democratic candidates, campaign committees and interest groups to raise money and energize the grass roots. ...The Republican primary has not been without rancor (it has even divided members of the late congressman’s family), and the eventual nominee will have to unite his or her party quickly, raise funds for the special election and immediately start to engage Sink.

Money could be a significant problem for the GOP.

In her Dec. 25 online fundraising report, Sink showed total contributions of $1.43 million, with just more than $1 million in the bank. In his late December report, Jolly showed just under $142,000 on hand, while Peters reported less than $18,000 in the bank.

The calendar also favors the former Florida CFO, who is clearly more prepared to launch a top-tier campaign after the polls close next week than her eventual Republican opponent will be. While a mere eight weeks separate the special primary and the special election, the window is even narrower than that, because absentee ballots for domestic voters are tentatively scheduled to be mailed on Feb. 4 and early voting begins March 1, according to the website of the Pinellas County supervisor of elections.

Given all of the advantages that Sink has-- the district, her experience and proven electoral success, her money in the bank and her united party-- and the problems the GOP nominee will face, shouldn’t the likely Democratic nominee be a clear favorite to win the special election, getting her party one seat closer to the majority in November?

The answer is “yes,” and if this seat had become open in 2006 or 2007, there is little doubt that Democrats would have been solid favorites to win.

But the president’s weak poll numbers nationally and the problems associated with the launch of the health care law could undermine Sink’s obvious advantages, particularly in this Central Florida district, where 22 percent of residents are 65 or older. (Republican strategists believe that voters 65 and older could constitute close to 30 percent of the special-election electorate.)

If swing voters decide to use the special election as an opportunity to register their displeasure with the president or punish Sink because she is a member of Obama’s party, the eventual Republican nominee’s prospects could rise.

And Democrats are worried that the composition of the special-election electorate will make the contest more challenging for their nominee than it would be in a regularly scheduled election.

Still, all things being equal, Sink has enough advantages to produce a narrow but clear victory. So, while a victory would constitute a takeover and give her party’s talking heads an opportunity to demonize the Republicans in Congress once again, it would not be surprising.

On the other hand, since most nonpartisan handicappers and analysts have for years expected this seat to go Democratic when it became open, a Republican victory in March would likely say something about the national political environment and the inclination of district voters to send a message of dissatisfaction about the president. And that possibility should worry the White House.

The National Republican Congressional Committee would love to keep this Florida seat in the special election. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee cannot afford to lose it. Those are two very different perspectives that reflect the relative importance of this election to the two parties.

As everyone in the Tampa Bay Area already knows, the Republican primary race got very ugly, very fast. As a notoriously sleazy lobbyist, Jolly, who has been endorsed by the Tampa Bay Tribune in an especially insipid editorial, is an easy target.

In a mailer sent to voters, Peters’ campaign declares, "Since 2007, David Jolly has given almost $30,000 to keep Democrats in Congress!" It then adds "(But not a dime to Congressman Bill Young)" before launching into a number of bullet points about how Jolly has supported his rival party.

…Peters has spent a lot of time making hay over Jolly’s past as a lobbyist, illustrating why it is so difficult for a lobbyist to run for office (leaving office to become a lobbyist is nowhere near as difficult-- or as uncommon).

Her mailer says, "In the past three election cycles, Washington Lobbyist David Jolly has made nearly $30,000 in personal contributions to the campaigns of Democrats in Congress-- liberals who have forced Obamacare on America and have fought responsible Republican policies."

The flier then lists 13 "Jolly Good" Democratic senators and representatives to whom Jolly has given campaign contributions. Among the baker’s dozen are Florida’s own Sen. Bill Nelson (who received $4,500 in direct contributions and through his PAC, Moving America Forward), Rep. Kathy Castor ($3,600) and former Rep. Allen Boyd ($7,500). Boyd, who was defeated for re-election by Republican Steve Southerland in 2010, is now a lobbyist for the Twenty-First Century Group.

The list also includes other Democrats from around the nation, including Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin ($1,000), late Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye ($1,000), Maine Rep. Mike Michaud ($2,250) and former Illinois Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. ($2,300), who was sentenced in August to 30 months in prison for wire and mail fraud for using campaign contributions for personal expenses.

The total listed on the mailing was $28,622, a number PolitiFact Florida confirmed through Federal Elections Commission filings from 2007 to 2013.

The most recent polling (December 3) shows Sink beating Jolly 49.3- 36.3%, beating Peters 47.7- 34.6% and beating Bircher 50.4- 30.2%. Blue America has no endorsement in this race, although Sink is less objectionable than the other candidates.