Will A Battle For The Soul Of The Republican Party Pit Chris Christie Against Ted Cruz?

In his attempt to fool low-info New Jersey independents and Democrats that he's a moderate and not really a conservative, Chris Christie may have inadvertently convinced conservatives across the country. He was reelected governor of New Jersey last week-- while voters rejected his agenda and specifically overturned his veto of a bill raising the minimum wage. New polls, though, indicate that he's alienated GOP primary voters outside of the Northeast, which still includes a good number of old fashioned mainstream conservatives and where teabaggers are less of a force.

A new poll from NBC spotlights his dual problem: he may be losing weight and looking less like a bowling ball-- but the dichotomy of pleasing the far right primary base and the more moderate national electorate is out of reach.

Christie was the preferred candidate of GOP voters in just one region, the Northeast. There, 57 percent of Republicans said they would support Christie in a GOP primary versus 22 percent who said they would not.

However, pluralities of Republicans everywhere else said they would prefer a different candidate. Christie trailed a generic "other" GOPer in the Midwest (35/30 percent), the South (29/27 percent) and the West (40/22 percent.)

In a recent survey conducted by Quinnipiac, only one-third of self-identified conservatives nationwide had a favorable opinion of Christie, while one-quarter viewed him unfavorably. And while Christie took the top spot in a PPP survey of a theoretical GOP primary earlier this month, he was the top choice among only three percent of "very conservative" respondents. That put him dead last with that demographic, behind the likes of Sens. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio-- as well as some more farfetched candidates like Sarah Palin and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.

Matt Lewis remarked on this problem in The Week way back in February, comparing Christie to Jon Huntsman, the former Utah governor who positioned himself as the electable moderate in 2012 only to fizzle out in remarkable, whimpering fashion. Though Christie had some true conservative bona fides, Lewis wrote, conservative voters still suspected his high popularity back home was more so "directly related to his willingness to throw fellow Republicans under the bus."

Christie has notably sparred with unions, slashed state spending, and wagged his finger at teachers, all of which should win him support with conservatives. But he's also developed a moderate image, dropping a challenge to gay marriage, endorsing some limited gun control reforms, and suggesting illegal immigrants should be given in-state tuition rates.

Those latter positions, which padded Christie's re-election margin, could become huge liabilities in a Republican primary with its typically more conservative electorate. Fox's Brit Hume noted that problem on Sunday, saying Tea Party types "are not persuaded by electability arguments, and they don't like anybody who they think may turn out to be a moderate."

…Christie, with his name recognition and enviable fundraising platform, would be a formidable candidate in a general election. Yet the biggest question about his 2016 ambitions may not be whether he can defeat Hillary Clinton or whoever else emerges from the Democratic side, but whether he can first convince his own party's skeptics that he's really one of them.

Republican primary voters would rather lose with Cruz than win with Christie. As Tom Jensen of PPP put it, "If the 2016 presidential contest were between Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz, it has the potential of producing the most lopsided national popular vote result since Lyndon Johnson routed Barry Goldwater in 1964. But Cruz remains at or near the top of Republicans’ preference in the primary. Clinton leads Cruz by 17 points, 50-33, by far the worst outcome of the four matchups tested. As usual, Chris Christie comes closest to Clinton, trailing by only five (44-39), followed by Jeb Bush nine points down (48-39) and Rand Paul 12 (49-37)."