Beltway Pundits Think CA-25 Is Still "Safe Republican" But If They Ever Came Out To America They'd Realize How Out Of Date They Are

Buck'n'Schmuck- California anti-Latino Republicans

CA-25 is divided into three valleys: Simi Valley in the west, the Santa Clarita Valley in the center, and the Antelope Valley in the east. Last year, Buck McKeon lost the Antelope Valley third of his district (Lancaster, Palmdale, Pearblossom). Latino voter participation has exploded in CA-25, but especially in the Antelope Valley. It doesn't bode well for McKeon's reelection chances in 2014 that 31.5% of the voters in his district are Latinos and that 56.8% are newly eligible Latinos, Asians and immigrants. Also consider, if you will, that McKeon doesn't have the entire Antelope Valley for himself. He shares it with GOP Whip Kevin McCarthy, who is probably safe for another 2 or 3 election cycles before demographics do to him what they may well do to McKeon this cycle. McCarthy is seen-- and rightly so-- as one of the Republicans responsible for scuttling the bipartisan immigration reform talks. His obstruction is likely to be taken out on his more vulnerable colleagues-- like Buck McKeon and Gary Miller.

McKeon is already skating on thin ice with his constituents. Recent polling of CA-25 for MoveOn by PPP showed McKeon struggling with a 43% disapproval rating (38% approval). If the election were held today, Democrat Lee Rogers would beat him 46-44% and when voters are made aware that McKeon voted for and supported the government shutdown, this happens:

Monday's L.A. Daily News sounded more dire warning bells for McKeon. On the top of the page is a big full color photo of a dour Buck McKeon.

The House’s failure to pass immigration reform could create political trouble for a growing number of Republican representatives from districts with sharply rising Latino and Asian populations.

The problem is especially apparent in California where Latino and Asian populations in Republican districts are triple the national average. Both groups gave President Obama more than 70 percent of their votes in 2012.

In four California districts, the 2012 election results were so close that the incumbents’ margin of victory is smaller than the projected number of new eligible Latino and Asian voters turning 18 by 2014, according to an analysis by Tom Wong, a political science professor UC San Diego.

As the number of voting age Latinos and Asians grows, there is mounting political pressure on Republicans to support an immigration measure that would create a path to citizenship for some of the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants.

“Latinos in California and across the nation are a huge demographic,” said Congressman Jeff Denham, R-Modesto, whose district is more than 40 percent Latino.

Denham recently announced his support for a bill introduced by House Democrats that includes a path to citizenship. This comes despite Denham’s previous opposition to California’s version of the DREAM Act and his support for Arizona’s controversial anti-immigration law.

The changing demographics of Denham’s district help explain why he is one of only three House Republicans to have endorsed the Democratic bill.

Denham won the 2012 election by roughly 11,000 votes. According to Wong’s analysis there are 26,000 Latinos and Asians in his district who will turn 18 by 2014. Similar numbers confront Republicans Howard “Buck” McKeon from Palmdale, Gary Miller from Rancho Cucamonga and David Valadao from Bakersfield.

“As members look at the issue, they need to understand the changing demographics in the future,” Denham said.

The Senate passed an immigration bill in June and Democrats have introduced a similar bill in the House. It is not clear that Republicans will schedule a vote and Democrats are using the GOP’s hesitation to bring the bill to the floor to depict them as unsympathetic to immigrants.

Two large labor unions allied with the Democrats released a series of TV ads, which will run in Spanish in Bakersfield and other cities across the country, suggesting that Republicans treat undocumented immigrants as “animals” while another quotes a GOP congressman saying he would do anything to stop the undocumented immigrants “short of shooting them.”

…Like Denham, Valadao has announced his support for the Democratic immigration bill.

But very few Republicans are following Denham and Valadao’s lead despite the rise in Latino voters.

“Over 2,000 Latino citizens across the country are turning 18 each day,” said Clarissa Martinez from the National Council La Raza.

Wong has identified nearly three dozen vulnerable Republicans in the House who have indicated opposition to any legislation that allows undocumented immigrants a path to citizenship.

“Those Republicans who have large numbers of Latino voters are having significantly different opinions than the Republicans who hold the very white seats and don’t have to worry about the Latino vote,” said Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of the California Target Book and the former political coordinator of the California Republican Party.

But he noted that California Republicans are only competitive in a diminishing number of regions, and warned this could become a national trend.

“When most people talk about the national Republican Party, they say it might end up like the California Republican Party,” Hoffenblum said. Some California Republicans, including those from heavily Latino districts, have not shown any willingness to support any measure that includes a path to citizenship. Miller, whose district is roughly 50 percent Latino, and McKeon, whose district is close to 40 percent Latino, have both said that the immigration system needs to fixed. But they focus more on border security and enforcement issues, which are less popular among Latino voters. Neither has endorsed measures to offer citizenship to undocumented immigrants.

Miller won the 2012 election by roughly 17,000 votes, but the number of Asians and Latinos who will turn 18 by 2014 in his district is more than 31,000.

Similarly, McKeon won his election in 2012 by less than a 23,000 vote margin over Democrat Lee Rogers. According to Wong’s analysis by the next election, nearly 25,000 new Latinos and Asians in the district will have turned 18.

“The district grows by one percent Latino every year and that’s been the largest growing segment of the population,” said Rogers who plans to run against McKeon again in 2014.

“It’s not that Republicans can’t represent a Latino district, it’s just that in certain cases they have made really outlandish comments about immigrants, Latinos in particular,” Rogers said, pointing to a recent town hall meeting in which McKeon was talking about border enforcement and said, “There are people who can’t tell the difference between a Hispanic person and an Arabic person.”

There are literally dozens of recent polls that show the overwhelming majority of Americans favor comprehensive immigration reform with a fair path to citizenship. The only significant groups that oppose it are racists and congressional Republicans. At his press conference today, Boehner said he will not allow any House-passed immigration legislation to be blended with the Senate's sweeping reform bill, further quashing the chances of comprehensive immigration reform legislation being signed into law anytime soon. "We have no intention of ever going to conference on the Senate bill." If you'd like to see Lee Rogers and Eloise Reyes replace McKeon and Miller, both progressives are on the Blue America ActBlue page.