Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Another Day, Another Poll, Another Planet

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I always flirt with death

I could kill, but I don't care about it

I can face your threats

Stand up tall and scream and shout about it


I think I'm on another world with you

I'm on another planet with you


You always get under my skin

I don't find it irritating

You always play to win

I don't need rehabilitating


Another girl, another planet

Another girl, another planet


Space travels in my blood

And there ain't nothing I can do about it

Long journeys wear me out

Oh God we won't live without it


Another girl is loving you now

Another planet, forever holding you down

Another planet



Bachmann may be thanking so-called "moderates" in her party-- more accurately described as mainstream conservatives-- for standing with teabaggers, neo-fascists, racists and the rest of the Tortilla Coast Suicide Caucus, but many of the mainstream Republicans wish she'd keep her thanks to herself. Old-fashioned conservative Republicans who backed the Suicide Caucus' government shut down-- from committee and subcommittee chairs like Fred Upton, Darrell Issa, Buck McKeon, Ed Royce, Mike Rogers, John Kline, Ileana Royce Lehtinen, John Mica, Joe Pitts to backbenchers like Jim Renacci, Frank LoBiondo, John Runyan, Scott Tipton, Tom Reed, Jim Gerlach, David Valadao, Frank Wolf and Dave Reichert-- are now underwater with their own constituents for their roles in these shutdown. All are in jeopardy of losing their seats next year, so are 2 dozen more. So… thanks Michele, but no thanks.

And reading the latest poll, released yesterday by the Washington Post and ABC News-- and politicians read polls even if they don't read legislation they're voting on-- is even scarier for these non-Confederate Republicanos than the polls from last week! A few days ago, a CBS poll showed that the congressional Republicans' disapproval rating had sunk, in the wake of the GOP-egineered shutdown, to a staggering 78%. That means even Republican voters were sick of their own party's congressmembers. Maybe not in backward rural areas of Georgia, Mississippi and Texas… but in normal parts of modern America, these people are politically dead, at least for now. We'll see if the zombies can come back to life after Halloween. But the new poll shows that a majority of Republican voters (a decisive 72%) believe that their own congresssmembers are more interested in personal political gain than in helping the country. It's even worse among independents-- and remember, we're talking about districts in parts of the country (i.e., outside of the former slave-holding states) where you need independents to win. 83% of independents polled believe Republicans would throw the country under the bus for their own partisan gain. This is a self-inflicted nightmare for House Republicans… and they wish Bachmann would keep her thanks to herself. Go thank Gohmert, Stockman, Huelskamp and Yoho instead.

Pollster Gary Langer for ABC News: "Approval of Congress is at a new low in 40 years of polling, Americans’ approval of their own representative in Washington is underwater for the first time and a record number of registered voters are inclined to look for someone new in 2014 – all signs of a powerful, palpable public antipathy following the budget spat that shut down much of the government for 16 days." As he went on explaining the results, it looked gloomier and gloomier for the Republicans who decided to cast their lot with Cruz and shut down the government and threaten America with default:
It’s long been noted that Americans disapprove of Congress as an institution far more than they disapprove of their own representative. That’s still the case-- but less so. Just 43 percent in this survey approve even of their own Congress member, while 47 percent disapprove-- record low approval and the first underwater result to this question in ABC/Post polls back 24 years.

Another result may deepen the chill for current office-holders: Only 25 percent of registered voters now say they’re inclined to re-elect their representative in Congress; 66 percent are inclined to look around for someone else – the highest level of anti-incumbency in ABC/Post polls since 1989.

The Republicans may be at particular risk; just 32 percent of Americans express a favorable view of the party, vs. 63 percent unfavorable-- their worst rating, as noted, in at least 29 years. The Democrats, by contrast, manage about an even split in this basic measure of popularity.

…Eighty-one percent disapprove of the shutdown-- 71 percent, “strongly.” Anywhere from 80 to 86 percent say it damaged the U.S. economy, the United States’ image in the world and the morale of federal employees. Twenty-two percent were personally inconvenienced, 10 points more than said so in the shutdowns of 1995-96.

…While there’s criticism for all, the Republicans in Congress, and their party, are taking the brunt of the public’s ire. Seventy-seven percent disapprove of the GOP’s handling of the budget dispute, a new high. That rose by 14 points from the start to the end of the shutdown, vs. Obama’s +4 (to 54 percent disapproval) and the Democrats’ +5 (to 61 percent, itself roundly negative).

Disapproval of the GOP’s work on the shutdown advanced most sharply among two groups: It rose by 20 points among Republicans themselves; 58 percent in this survey disapprove of how their own party’s representatives in Congress handled the issue. And it rose by 24 points, to 79 percent, among a generally more Democratic-oriented group, adults under age 30.

Measured head-to-head, the public blames the Republicans in Congress for the shutdown over Obama by 53-29 percent-- similar to the result measuring then-President Bill Clinton vs. the Republicans in January 1996, after their own shutdown battle. Clinton went on to win re-election the next November, but the Republicans held control of Congress, suggesting it’d be a mistake to take current blame directed against the GOP as determinative of November 2014 outcomes.

…The Republicans, as noted, are underwater in overall favorability, 32-63 percent, nearly a precise reversal from their most recent height of popularity 11 years ago. Their favorability rating once was 1 point lower, in late 1998, but their unfavorable score is 6 points higher than its previous peak in data back to 1984.

Unfavorable views of the Republican Party are up 10 points from the last ABC/Post measure in September 2012, particularly so among very conservatives (up 21 points),  college graduates (19 points), political independents (17 points) and, in a bit of self-flagellation, up 15 points among Republicans themselves.

In a related result, 26 percent see the Tea Party favorably, a new low, down from its peak of 41 percent in March 2010. In another measure, 36 percent describe themselves as Tea Party supporters-- another low.

At 46-49 percent favorable-unfavorable, the Democratic Party is much less poorly rated than the Republicans -- but that’s their own worst rating (lowest favorable and highest unfavorable alike) since 1984, and numerically under water for the first time.
Greg Sargent, at The Post was even clearer that the impact of the government shutdown and the $24 billion bill the petulant nihilists handed the taxpayers for their spasm of politically infantile dysfunction and narcissism:
Dems lead in the generic ballot matchup by 49-38. Among independents-- a key midterm constituency-- those numbers are 46-35.

Only 21 percent of Americans approve of the way the Congressional GOP is handling the federal budget, versus 77 percent who disapprove. Among independents: 20-78. Among moderates: 14-85. Among seniors: 18-79. Fewer than one in three regard the GOP favorably.

Only 20 percent think Republicans are “interested in doing what’s best for the country,” while 77 percent think they’re “interested in what’s best for themselves politically.” Among independents: 14-83. Among moderates: 18-81. Among seniors: 24-74.

Americans blame the GOP for the shutdown by 53-29; moderates by 60-24; indys by 49-29; and seniors by 46-35.

Crucially, large majorities think the shutdown damaged the country. Eighty six percent say it has damaged the U.S.’s image in the world, and 80 percent say it damaged the U.S. economy. Those who predicted a shutdown/default crisis would underscore perceptions of the GOP as ideologically incapable of constructive governing have fresh evidence for that view.

…The defining characteristic of the coming wave, like others before it, is anger. A third of those polled describe themselves as “angry,” and they’re among nearly eight in 10 who say they’re dissatisfied with the way the federal government is working. The new poll is filled with record-low superlatives. In the decades since such questions have been asked, Congress has never been less popular. Neither has “your own representative in Congress,” nor the Republican Party itself.

Watch for Dem recruiting news; GOP retirements; and normally safe GOP districts slipping into contested status to see if any of this is real.
The only thing that can save the House Republicans now, is Steve Israel's sheer incompetence, amply demonstrated in 2012, and in gear to wreck Democratic chances again in 2014. Here a dozen seats held by powerful Republicans (not hapless backbenchers of little consequence) that polling shows the Democrats could pick up but where Israel refuses to engage:
Buck McKeon (CA)
Fred Upton (MI)
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL)
Dave Reichert (WA)
Tom Petri (WI)
Joe Pitts (PA)
Mike Rogers (MI)
Darrell Issa (CA)
Ed Royce (CA)
John Mica (FL)
Peter Roskam (IL)
Scott Garrett (NJ)
These are the Republican policymakers, not the foot-soldiers. All are in trouble and what stands between them and a career-ending 2014 is Steve Israel's refusal to engage in their districts so he can waste money on trying to elect his conservative garbage candidates like anti-Choice/antigay.anti-union fanatic Jennifer Garrison that are just a pipe-dream.

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