Are Mainstream Republicans Capable Of Going On The Offensive Against Teabaggers?

Aaron Schock's boyfriend is being targeted for political extinction by the teabaggers

Earlier today we took a quickie glance at the devastating Republican Party civil war and how an energized DCCC-- one without Steve Israel holding it back-- could take advantage of it to win back the House. But mainstream conservative Republicans have a different perspective. They're looking for ways to excise the Tea Party cancer before its too late. Political strategists told David Ignatius "the basic ingredients for revival include: good candidates in key districts; a national nest egg of perhaps $200 million to $300 million; and a 'galvanizing' national political leader, such as Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey or former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida. Put these three factors together in the 2014 Republican primaries and you could see some surprising results, they argue."

Several strategists offered a similar breakdown of the House's 232 GOP members: They say the key to change is challenging the 40 hard-core extremists and perhaps 40 more who sympathize with them, meanwhile protecting the roughly 100 conservative House Republicans who are wary of the tea party but don't want to take on the Club for Growth and Heritage Action.

Strategists caution that primary challenges won't work without good local candidates who are well funded. Otherwise, "the GOP is going over Niagara Falls," says one prominent adviser to several Republican presidents.

An example of how the grass-roots process could work is the Grand Rapids, Mich., district of Rep. Justin Amash, a tea-party activist elected in 2010. As explained by the Washington Post's Philip Rucker, Amash is facing a primary challenge from Brian Ellis, a local business leader who sits on the school board and epitomizes the traditional GOP mainstream. Similar primary challenges are brewing against tea-party Republicans in Alabama and Idaho, according to the Post's Jia Lynn Yang and Tom Hamburger.

…[David] Plouffe argues that tea-party incumbents are much more vulnerable than is commonly recognized-- but only to challengers who are able to expand the size of the turnout in GOP primaries. Higher turnout is a result, he explains, of good candidates who can energize volunteers and "good data" that can identify who has voted over the past few elections and who hasn't-- and then drive turnout for the challenger.

In states with open primaries where independents can vote, expanding the turnout in GOP primaries would be relatively easy, Plouffe says. But even in states with closed primaries, good data and voter-mobilization tools would put many districts within reach of a strong, well-financed challenger.

The country has lived through a nightmare over the last few weeks, but the tea party is already gearing up for the next round. "See, we're going to start this all over again," promises Rep. John Fleming of Louisiana.

Republicans who want to stop this destructive politics from further undermining their party and the nation need to get started now.

But despite Establishment primaries in Michigan against teabagger Kerry Bentivolio (by a foreclosure and eviction attorney-- probably not what Plouffe meant by "good candidates) and against libertarian Justin Amash, most of the Republican-on-Republican primary action is going in the other direction, right-wing populist teabaggers challenging mainstream conservatives. The Club for Growth is busy organizing primaries against 10 Establishment Republicans who are allies of Boehner's-- Mike Simpson (R-ID), Frank Lucas (R-OK), Larry Bucshon (R-IN), Renee Ellmers (R-NC), NRCC Chairman Greg Walden (R-OR), Martha Roby (R-AL), Rick Crawford (R-AR), Aaron Schock (R-IL), and Schock's boyfriend Adam Kinzinger (R-IL).

Can teabaggers beat Boehner's allies in these races? Let's look at IL-16 in the north-central part of the state, Kinzinger's district. The PVI is R+4 and Obama beat McCain 50-48% in 2008 and then lost to Romney 53-45% last year. Kinzinger first won as part off the Great Blue Dog Apocalypse of 2010 by beating conservative corporate shill Debbie Halvoson. Back then Kinzinger had Tea Party support and he knocked off Halvorson (who had an A+ from the NRA and a very conservative voting record and couldn't inspire any passion whatsoever from Democratic base voters) with an impressive 57-43% win. In 2012, a bitter primary with Don Manzullo, found Kinzinger with support from the GOP Establishment and Manzullo with the backing of the Tea Party. Manzullo won the primary 54-46%. Teabaggers are determined to get revenge this cycle. A PPP survey released a few hours ago, shows Kinzinger relatively safe.

David Hale isn’t just a Tea Party candidate-- he founded the Rockford Tea Party in 2009.

Now he’s running to challenge incumbent Adam Kinzinger for the Republican nomination for candidacy for the U.S. House of Representatives’ 16th District, which includes La Salle, Putnam and Bureau counties.

The Hale campaign issued a press release and announced its petition drive Sunday.

...“Hale started the Rockford Tea Party in 2009, and has led opinion on political issues locally, statewide and nationally fighting corruption and keeping politicians more honest than they would have been without the Tea Party,” according to his announcement. “In 2010 he Organized the Highly successful Tea Party Express Event at Davis Park. In 2011 he found the AWOL Wisconsin Senators, and became part of the Wisconsin Story. In 2012 with his Co-Coordinator he led a petition drive directing the Winnebago County Board to pass a concealed carry ordinance. With the help of many petitioners they collected 11,000 signatures which they delivered to the county board. The Board ultimately rejected the Ordinance under the guidance of State’s Attorney Joe Bruscoto, an ally of Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.

”Hale has a bachelor’s degree in journalism, associates degree in nursing, and a private pilot’s license.

“We elect people to go to Congress based on the idea they will make wise choices,” he said in a prepared statement. “The voters do not expect direct consultations on every decision. We expect our congressman to use their best judgment based upon what they have told us about their socioeconomic and political values and personal beliefs.

This forms the basis for what the citizenry expects from their Representative in Congress.

“When a majority of the people in the 16th District call our Representative, and say no to something as serious as this ill-concieved Syrian war, then it is time to step back and reanalyze your original assumptions about my opponent. Our 16th District congressman should not embrace the poor judgment of the president and House leadership or pursue their political favor for doing so. The Congress must not allow themselves to be rush into any military action absent either an imminent threat and particularly where it’s justification and probable outcomes remain so unclear. The proposed ‘microattack’ as Secretary of State John Kerry was calling it, will most certainly devastate the intended military targets and also cause the death of 1000’s of innocent civilians. Will the proposed police action (Remember the Korean Conflict?) also ignite World War 3 in the Middle East?”

“My opponent Adam Kinzinger went to the White House and volunteered to carry their water on the Syrian war vote. That tells me he didn’t just walk into this, without apparent concern for the facts. I supported the Iraq war. I supported it only after months and months of diplomacy reached an international consensus. And even after all of that it was proven to be a bad choice. How can we make a well-reasoned decision on a Syrian war, after a mere few weeks, and rationally expect the desired outcome?”

Local coverage of the primary hasn't been going well for Kinzinger so far. "Kinzinger appears to be distancing himself from the most conservative elements of his party," warns one of the biggest media outlets in the district." Kinzinger is being painted as a warmonger on the one hand and a squish on the other.

In an interview with the Los Angeles Times this week, Kinzinger blamed House conservatives for the Republican Party's failure in shutdown negotiations.

"It's been about 30 people that make their money on not hanging with the team. And so it's on them," Kinzinger said in the Times story.

That didn't sit well with David Hale of Rockford, who plans to challenge Kinzinger in next March's GOP primary.

"Adam Kinzinger is blaming what he calls 'conservatives' for the government shutdown," Hale said in a news release this week. "He is now characterizing others as conservatives and not including himself in that class. ... What did Kinzinger do in the previous 12 months since the previous budget crisis to strategically plan in order to avert the crisis we have just gone through?"

Hale's answer: Nothing.

"And now he is throwing his colleagues under the bus for cheap political gain," Hale said.

Kinzinger was among a minority of Republicans voting Wednesday for legislation to end the 2 1/2-week shutdown, allowing the government to borrow money through at least February. It was close to what President Barack Obama wanted in the first place.

The bill passed the House largely on Democratic votes.

…But Kinzinger defended his vote by saying that "surpassing our debt threshold would be incredibly damaging to our already weak economy ... ."

Hale, the founder of the Rockford Tea Party, said he would have voted against ending the shutdown, unless the legislation took on the debt problem.

"The country is $17 trillion in debt. It's time to say no to this madness and stop the spending," he said in an interview Thursday. "We need to start strategically planning together."

…In an interview Thursday, Kinzinger said groups such as the Club for Growth and FreedomWorks are raising money by saying some Republican members of Congress "are not pure enough."

"They're raising a ton of money," Kinzinger said in a phone interview. "That's the dirty secret of what's going on."

…He said he didn't "necessarily" agree with the strategy going into the government shutdown, saying the "threat of default was real."

He said Democrats and Republicans must have "grown-up" discussions to figure out what they can agree on.

In dealing with the debt, would Kinzinger support cutting Social Security and Medicare benefits for those with higher incomes? What about ending the $113,700 tax cap for Social Security and Medicare, above which no income is taxed?

That's part of the "menu of options," Kinzinger said, but he declined to say whether he would support such measures. He said that if he stated a position in favor, that could "be used to attack me."

He said that after he spoke about the possibility of raising the retirement age for younger people during his campaign, he had $1 million spent against him, warning that he would take away people's Social Security benefits.

The DCCC hasn't recruited a candidate to run against Kinzinger and the local activist who is running, Randall Olsen is being studiously ignored by the DCCC. If Hale beats Kinzinger in the primary he would be an easy target for a plausible Democrat running. By that time it will be too late for Pelosi to fire Steve Israel and find a plausible chairman of the DCCC.

BONUS: Mississippi

Here the ad Club For Growth released this morning in its attempt to defeat mainstream conservative Thad Cochran and release his with a degenerate sociopath and extremist: