Is The GOP's Anti-Hispanic Mania Putting Florida Out Of It's Grasp?

But it isn't Boehner that keeps Ros-Lentinen in office; it's Debbie Wasserman Schultz

Last week, Nate Cohn did a superb analysis of how the GOP is blowing it's chances to thrive politically in purple Florida, a state with a mighty 29 electoral votes. As he points out, it's a lot more dire than when-- for the same anti-Hispanic reasons-- they turned little New Mexico and Nevada (with 11 electoral votes between them) blue.

Florida’s Hispanic population has exploded over the last decade, growing by 57 percent between 2000 and 2010. As a result, the Hispanic share of eligible voters surged from 12.5 percent to 16.8 percent between 2004 and 2012, while non-Hispanic whites dropped from 72.2 to 65.8 percent. Those new Hispanic voters aren’t Republican-leaning Cubans, either. They’re a mix of heavily-Democratic Puerto Ricans who surged to Orlando-Kissimmee and a mix of Hispanics from elsewhere in Central and South America. As a result, Cubans now represent just 32 percent of Florida’s voting eligible Hispanics. The new Cuban voters aren’t as Republican, either: Younger third generation Cubans have little memory of the Cold War and don’t associate Democrats with Soviets, like their parents and grandparents.

The combination of Democratic gains among Hispanics nationally and an influx of more Democratic-friendly Hispanics has flipped the state’s Hispanic vote. In 2004, Florida’s Latinos voted for Bush by 12 points, 56-44. Just eight years later, Obama won Latinos by a decisive 21 points, 60-39. This huge shift has upended Florida’s well-known political geography. Orange and Osceloa Counties, home to Orlando and Kissimmee, were once the country’s premier swing counties at the heart of the country’s premier swing region, the I-4 corridor. They voted for Bush by just .07 percent and 3669 votes in 2004. But in 2012, Obama won these two counties by a massive 19 point and 111,723 vote margin. Miami-Dade County used to only lean slightly toward Democrats: it voted for Kerry by 6 points, or 48,637 votes. Now it’s a rout for Democrats. In 2012, Obama won by 24 points and 208,459 votes.

Alan Grayson won a new district in the Orlando area 185,569 (63%) to 98,984 (37%) last year, while in the Miami area Joe Garcia beat Republican incumbent David Rivera 135,551 (54%) to 108,737 (43%). Except for electoral shenanigans engineered by Debbie Wasserman Schultz with the cooperation of Steve Israel to guarantee no contest for Wasserman Schultz's Republican amiga Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the Democrats would have won that Miami district as well. Obama took the district 53-47%, a huge increase after losing to McCain 49-51% there. Disgracefully, Wasserman Schultz and Israel are again making sure Ros-Lehtinen wins reelection in a blue district in 2014.

One of the easiest Republican-held districts anywhere in the nation for a Democrat to win would be FL-27, the Ros-Lehtinen seat. But there is no recruitment; there is anti-recruitment. DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz has made it abundantly clear to Florida Democrats that she will not tolerate anyone credible running against Ileana, who, like her, is owned by the sugar baron Fanjul brothers. Last year Obama's 7 point margin in FL-27 was one of the highest margins of victory in any district held by a Republican Member of Congress. But Wasserman Schultz had the DCCC make sure there would be no viable candidate. The "Democrat" who ran, Manny Yevancey, still hasn't filed an FEC financial disclosure report, which means he raised and spent less than $5,000. His petitions-- which were commercially collected by a firm in Tampa that was paid by "someone else"-- is almost totally signed by folks in Tampa, not in Miami, Coral Gables, Hialeah, Miami Springs, South Miami, Westchester or anywhere else in Ros-Lehtinen's district. The total signatures on his petitions from Miami-Dade: 12. The total from Tampa: 1,147. And the other counties with significant petition numbers were also on the other side of the state, Hillsborough with 656 and Pasco with 502. Very convenient for Wasserman Schultz and Ros-Lehtinen to have a candidate with no income, no roots and no chance-- and old dirty trick that anti-democracy hacks employee.

That all said, there were still 84,899 (37%) voters willing to cast their ballots against Ros-Lehtinen and for an unknown "Democrat" who didn't campaign. Imagine if Steve Israel had ignored Wasserman Schultz' demand that Ros-Lehtinen's seat be off limits and had instead recruited a good candidate and gone after her. So far this year, Wasserman Schultz is guarding the process like a mad dog again and despite several DCCC staffers who would like to target Ros-Lehtinen, there is no movement whatsoever on recruiting a Democrat with a reasonable chance to win. There is no way for the DCCC to win back the House with this kind of leadership. Israel and Wasserman Schultz are the worst examples of why grassroots Democrats hate Inside-the-Beltway Democrats and why so many refuse to even turn up at the polls on election day.

Look at the chart above that shows the most heavily Hispanic districts held by Republicans. Numero uno is Ros-Lehtinen's district. And the 3rd most Hispanic is another one the DCCC does not contest-- also occupied by a Big Sugar amigo of Wasserman Schultz's, Mario Diaz-Balart.

Cohn, however wasn't addressing congressional races. He was talking about the electoral college and how the Republicans are blowing their chances to win the presidency because of their anti-Hispanic mania. He went on to point out that "Obama still only won Florida by less than 1 percent or 74,000 votes. That might seem to make Florida the perfect candidate for the GOP to win with additional gains among white voters-- they wouldn’t need to do so much better to win, just one more point. But the 'more whites' strategy might not work in Florida. Florida was so close because the GOP has already made huge gains among white voters-- bigger than any other battleground state. Obama lost Florida’s whites by 24 points, 10 points worse than Kerry’s more modest, 14 point defeat in 2004.

[I]f the GOP doesn’t keep making huge gains among white voters—bigger gains than they’re making nationally-- Florida’s going to go the same way as Nevada. The pace of demographic change in Florida should alarm Republicans. Think about it like this: Kerry lost Florida by 5 points in 2004. Then, Obama did 10 points worse among whites. All of this was countered and overwhelmed by demographic change and an improved showing among non-whites. Kerry’s performance among white voters would have yielded a 7-point win in 2012--12 points better than his 5 point defeat in 2004.

If the trends of the last eight years continue, the white share of eligible voters will drop again, down to something like 63 percent of eligible voters. Some 300,000 new Hispanics will get registered to vote, and they’ll break overwhelmingly for Democrats. If turnout patterns stayed the same, Republicans would need to win whites by 28 points to overcome demographic changes.

...Republicans probably can’t return to Bush’s performance among Hispanics, now that there are so many more Democratic-leaning Hispanics in Florida. But immigration reform would probably help. A Latino Decisions survey found that 39 percent of Florida Hispanics would be more likely to support a Republican who voted for immigration reform, higher than the 31 percent nationally. And although Florida Hispanics are less connected to the immigration debate than their southwestern counterparts, more than 40 percent say they know an illegal immigrant. But even if the GOP would only make slight gains among Florida Hispanics, the pace of demographic change is so great that Republicans just can’t afford to forfeit opportunities to improve in Florida. The stakes are too high. Florida is all but a must-win state for Republicans.