Is Boehner Retiring?

Boehner's job-- trying to herd the fractious, racist, unpatriotic teabaggers in his own party-- is so thankless and stressful that there are rumors he's contemplating retirement. Since the rumor originates with Politico, they may not be entirely credible, although they insist that "the rumors are real, and they’re bouncing from Capitol Hill to K Street. When Boehner might retire has become a favorite parlor game on Capitol Hill."

Boehner is certainly floundering, even twisting in the wind. This past weekend he tried redefining how to judge the success of his Congress, embracing obstructionism and his inability to get any kind of agenda enacted. On Sunday, he told Face The Nation viewers that "we should not be judged by how many new laws we create, we ought to be judged on how many laws we repeal. We've got more laws than the administration could ever enforce."

Boehner only managed to pass an historically tiny handful of bills that have been enacted into law-- all most of them were not supported by most Republicans. He managed to pass them by violating the so-called "Hastert Rule" and passing them by cobbling together a deal with Nancy Pelosi that joined a minority of Republicans and most Democrats. The Violence Against Women Act is a perfect example-- although the same dynamic worked in passing aid for Hurricane Sandy victims, as well as the fiscal cliff deal. When Boehner called for a vote on VAWA in February, Pelosi delivered every single Democrat, even the worst right-wing Blue Dogs, but Boehner was only able to persuade 87 Republicans to vote for it. It passed 286-138, a clear violation of the "Hastert Rule," since 138 Republicans were opposed to the 87 in favor. Even Boehner's Majority Leader, Eric Cantor voted against it! If the DCCC was a competently functioning operation-- it isn't-- there would be a dozen War-Against-Women-Republicans looking at defeat next year for their NO votes in mainstream districts:

Justin Amash (R-MI)
Steve Chabot (R-OH)
Ron DeSantis (R-FL)
Randy Forbes (R-VA)
Scott Garrett (R-NJ)
Bill Johnson (R-OH)
Doug LaMalfa (R-CA)
John Mica (R-FL)
Joe Pitts (R-PA)
Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA)
Chris Smith (R-NJ)
Frank Wolf (R-VA)

The only one of these incumbents that the DCCC seems serious about so far is Bill Johnson and they've recruited a vehemently anti-Choice, anti-gay right-winger-- the "Sarah Palin of Ohio"-- as their candidate, Jennifer Garrison, who can't rally Democrats behind her.

Even earlier, the House voted on aid for Hurricane Sandy victims. It did pass-- 241-180-- but only 49 Republicans voted in favor. The vast GOP majority-- 179 + one pathetic Blue Dog, Jim Cooper-- voted NO. These are the kinds of bills Boehner can get passed and signed into law. And it drives the teabaggers insane and they make his life miserable. They've threatened to depose him as Speaker if he solves the immigration reform bill the same way. They stand for racism and nihilism and they do not want bills passed, especially not bill's like this. Boehner has pledged not to violate the Hastert Rule again.

Monday, Greg Sargent was asking Washington Post readers if they remember that Boehner is the leader of the House Republicans.

[Face the Nation host] Bob Schieffer pressed Boehner directly on a fact that too many commentators continue to ignore: The House Speaker is in control of whether immigration reform happens or whether it dies. And in the exchange, Boehner actually seemed to suggest he is not in control over what gets a vote in the end.

Asked repeatedly by Schieffer if he would allow a bill to come to a vote that provides a path to citizenship, Boehner hemmed and hawed a bit, but finally replied:

“This is about bringing these bills out here in a commonsense way. And I’m not going to predict what’s going to be on the floor and what isn’t going to be on the floor. Now that’s what you’re asking me to do. I can’t do that, and I don’t want to do that. My job in this process is to facilitate a discussion, and to facilitate a process so the American people can see what we’re doing and so the members understand that we’re dealing with this in a deliberative way.”

Yes, “facilitating discussion” is part of the Speaker’s job. But so is deciding what gets a vote and what doesn’t. So is leading.

...After the August recess, a bipartisan “gang of seven” proposal will likely be introduced in the House that includes a path to citizenship but with onerous provisions that put it significantly to the right of the Senate bill. What happens to this plan will be partly determined by Boehner and Paul Ryan, who is widely being seen as a pivotal player in the House on immigration. Does it get a vote? Does it get shoved into a committee process that shreds it? Do Boehner and Ryan get behind the plan-- tacitly or overtly? Do they show leadership and take a bit of heat from the right in exchange for asking their rank and file to consider supporting a solution to a glaring national problem (remember, Boehner and other GOP leaders have explicitly said the system is broken and that we must act) that has plenty for both sides to dislike? What if House Republicans pass a few bills without citizenship, and conference negotiations produce something with citizenship that a majority of House Republicans can’t quite vote for-- but that many Republicans can privately accept allowing to the floor? Does Boehner really nix a vote in that case?

Boehner wants you to believe immigration reform is all in the hands of his conference, that it’s a really tough or even impossible lift for many Republicans to support it, and that reform is likely dead as a result. Don’t believe me on this. Jon Ward, who is very well connected with the GOP leadership, reported recently that this is exactly the view GOP leaders want to take hold, because “a slow and unsurprising failure is far better, politically, than an unexpected one,” and because “the perception that the bill is nearly dead could strengthen Boehner’s hand in negotiations with Democrats and the White House.” Is supporting reform all that hard for the GOP leadership or for rank and file House Republicans? Boehner wants you to think that. But Ward-- who, again, knows the House GOP caucus-- suggests it remains unclear whether even the path to citizenship is dead among a majority of House Republicans, given that conditions remain in flux.

Predictions that immigration reform is dead help Boehner by removing the focus from the fact that in reality, he remains in control of whether it is dies or not. But as Schieffer put it bluntly during yesterday’s interview with the Speaker: “you’re the leader of the Republicans.” Good that somebody notices.