Yeah, Yeah... The End Of The Quarter Approacheth, And...
Next week you'll probably get dozens of e-mails from candidates and committees breathlessly telling you how the world is ending-- I mean how the quarter is ending. ONLY 7 DAYS LEFT IN THE QUARTER! ONLY 40-SOMETHING LEFT 'TIL THE ELECTION! We usually don't like sending e-mails like that. It's a manufactured date meaningless to anyone lucky enough to be living in America instead of Inside-the-Beltway, a manufactured arbitrary date that is about FEC reporting schedules. I go out of my way to make contributions based on something else other than accountants' arbitrary schedules. Like when candidates do something that makes me think I'd like to see them in Congress.
It's time for Blue America to start working full-time on our independent expenditures for the progressive candidates we think can win in November. We focusing running advertising for Rob Zerban's race against Paul Ryan in southeast Wisconsin, on Lee Rogers' race against Buck McKeon in Santa Clarita, Simi Valley and the Antelope Valley, on Aryanna Strader's race against Joe Pitts in southeast Pennsylvania... perhaps a couple others.
What all the districts we're working in have in common is that Obama won them in 2008, that the Democrats running are demonstrably progressive, that the Republicans are senior policy-makers (rather than faceless and inconsequential backbenchers)... and that the DCCC is ignoring them.
Usually we ask you and other Blue America supporters to go to this page, our main page, where you will find our PAC and our 15 House candidates who won their primaries and are now battling it out with a Republican in November. The contributions that come into the PAC itself is what we spend on our own campaigns, independent of the candidates. And then there's this page, our own little SuperPAC. There are no limits to the amount of money we can accept. We can't give it to candidates. All we can do with it is spend it on advertising-- advertising against Paul Ryan, Buck McKeon and Joe Pitts... advertising for Rob Zerban, Lee Rogers and Aryanna Strader. Obviously, we can't do it without your buy-in. Let's win some races. Keep in mind that the Princeton Election Consortium, which has a good track record, has gone out on a limb to predict the Democrats have a good chance to take back the House. They base that on statistics
Conditions through August showed a 2% lead on the generic Congressional ballot for Democrats. As of September 20th, in the wake of the Democratic convention, the lead has widened to 4.0 +/- 2.0%. Although it has yet to be appreciated by pundits, this could well translate to a November loss of the House of Representatives by Republicans. Based on the generic Congressional ballot, the probability of a Democratic takeover is 74% with a median 16-seat majority. Whichever party is in control, the seat margin is headed for being narrower than the current Congress. Like any probability in the 20-80% range, this is a knife-edge situation. This picture may change over the coming six weeks as more information, especially district-level polls, becomes available.
But statistics alone won't do it. In his eagerness to re-stock the House Democratic caucus with corrupt, reactionary Blue Dogs and New Dems like himself, Steve Israel has worked hard to sabotage progressive Democrats-- even progressives running in districts Obama won in 2008. For the most part Israel has ordered the DCCC to ignore the races of reform-oriented progressive stalwarts like Lee Rogers (CA), Rob Zerban (WI), Lance Enderle (MI), Syed Taj (MI), Nate Shinagawa (NY), Aryanna Strader, Beto O'Rourke (TX)... and others, many of whom won primaries against Israel's anti-Choice, antigay, pro-corporate cronies and recruits. The Princeton report-- which does not factor Steve Israel's drag on the Democrats' chances into their calculations-- predicts "the probability of a Democratic takeover is 74 percent, with a median 16-seat majority." A majority of 16, huh-- like these 16 the DCCC is essentially ignoring?