How Are People In Other Countries Looking At Our Election?

If it's real, the video above, of Romney bragging to some fatcats about buying a huge sweat shop in China, was shot at a private $50,000 a plate fundraiser at the mansion of one of his billionaire supporters. Unlike Todd Akin who blabbed the truth publicly about what the GOP has turned into, Romney thought he could safely let his hair down in this private setting. I wonder if he was cracking more of his racist birther "jokes" there too. I'm sure Romney wasn't thinking about what impact it might have if people in China were to see it (nor in Freeport, Illinois). Interestingly, though, China is a major source of money for his campaign. Not countering the money being funneled through organizations-- like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Rove's outfit-- that skirt or ignore the laws that says only Americans are allowed to give, Romney's campaign has reported $114,500 from China, second in terms of overseas contributions, only to the U.K.

I used to live in Holland and my friends there are in shock because they interpret news they see there-- mostly Colbert and Jon Stewart-- to mean that we've given up on democracy and just let the elections go to the highest bidder. I know a bunch of lefties, of course, and they think this could have bad repercussions worldwide.

In the U.K. plenty of people are following the elections avidly and in great detail. I suspect many folks know more about it there than your average Republican base voter does. In the past few days Guardian readers were inundated with American election news, much of it about the Republican convention that was just canceled for today. Columnist Oliver Burkeman did a funny piece, What Could Possibly Go Wrong?... but it wasn't that funny. Here are his first three-- of eight-- possible scenarios:

1. The hurricane scenario: will Hurricane Isaac, most recently reported as a tropical storm gathering strength in the Caribbean, wreak havoc in Tampa? (As you may recall, Hurricane Gustav-- though it came nowhere near the convention HQ in St Paul-- gave John McCain another chance to engage in his favourite campaign tactic of "suspending the campaign.") Hurricanes, Michele Bachmann and Pat Robertson agree, are generally signs of heavenly anger at profligate government spending, or feminists. So what will it mean if God smites Tampa? Perhaps it will mean that He is sick of being used as an explanation for naturally occurring meteorological phenomena.

2. The sex scandal scenario: Tampa's strip clubs are expecting an income boost from the convention, though at least one establishment is now offering the opportunity to participate online, regrettably reducing the chances of big names being photographed emerging from darkened doorways. Still, after a tiring evening on the convention floor, and a few drinks at the hotel bar, inhibitions crumble. Will this be the moment at which Paul Ryan is finally exposed as harbouring a super-secret sexual fetish that involves dressing up in correctly fitting clothes?

3. The fugitive wildlife scenario: to hold your convention in Florida is effectively to guarantee that it'll intersect with some kind of animals-on-the-loose story: it's a fact, although not a statistically accurate one, that 50% of all Florida news stories involve alligators, and-- as detailed in this week's New York Times magazine-- a wily macaque has been on the run from Tampa cops since 2009, achieving heroic outlaw status among locals. The worst-case scenario here involves a monkey or alligator on the loose in the convention centre itself, which among other things might startle the stable of dressage horses with which Mitt Romney travels at all times (strapped to the roof of his car).

Correspondent Paul Harris, who's already in Tampa for the festivities, was more informational... and even funnier. He worries that Romney has in a captive of the extreme right and they may make his convention into some kind of horror show, especially if anyone mainstream or independent is paying any attention. But, in any case, this is what Brits are reading about American politics today-- including an assertion that Romney would be better of if Hurricane Issac forces them to close the whole thing down:

Some of them believe Barack Obama was born in Kenya. Others want to force raped women who become pregnant to have their child. There are those who vilify Obama as a socialist and want to do away with most of the federal government. A fair few doubt the theory of evolution or hold that gays can be "cured."

As Mitt Romney arrives at the Republican national convention in Tampa, Florida, where he will be nominated to run for president, he faces the difficult task of dealing with a party base that has become one of the most radical in recent American history.

Convulsed by the rise of the anti-government Tea Party and dominated by socially conservative Christians, the Republican party has continued to move right in recent years. That means the carefully laid plans for a Tampa convention aimed at introducing a voter-friendly version of Romney could easily be upset by the party's more extreme elements.

"They don't want anyone to look behind the curtain," said Professor Shaun Bowler, a political scientist at the University of California, Riverside. "You want the party base to turn up, give money and keep quiet. But it is hard to keep them quiet." However, the curtain has already been lifted to some degree.

The week leading up to the convention was supposed to see a media rollout of Romney as a president-in-waiting. Instead it was dominated by an ugly row centered on a Republican Missouri Senate candidate, congressman Todd Akin, who used the phrase "legitimate rape" while talking about denying abortions to pregnant rape victims.

Romney called on him to leave the race and the Republican national committee chairman, Reince Priebus, asked him not to come to Tampa. But in a sign of how little control the party's elite has over its base, Akin refused to step down and last week was spotted in Tampa meeting social conservative groups. At the same time it was revealed that Akin supporters had coughed up $100,000 for his campaign funds in two days.

But party bigwigs should perhaps not be surprised. Though Akin's language was shocking, his views are not too different from the party's official policy platform-- in defiance of Romney. Indeed that extreme position on abortion is one historically shared by Paul Ryan, the outspoken Wisconsin conservative picked by Romney as his running mate.

There is a real consequence to such disputes over contentious social issues. Romney's support among women, perhaps influenced by recent spats over abortion and reproductive rights, has plummeted. A survey last week showed Romney lagging by 13% with women voters in six key battleground states. Obama was beating Romney by 52% to 39% and about half of women voters said they were less likely to vote for Romney since he chose Ryan.

Nor is it just this issue that is likely to hamper Romney as he tries to pull off the complicated double act of using the Tampa convention to appeal to America's middle ground, while also appeasing a conservative base that doesn't trust him.

Gay marriage is guaranteed to fire up the base and Tampa will see some vocal opponents making a great deal of noise. Michele Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman and former Romney presidential rival, will be speaking at numerous events. They include a "Unity Rally 2012" that is going to be held at a church tomorrow night. Bachmann has spoken out vociferously on gay rights, once referring to homosexuality as "part of Satan."

Appearing alongside Bachmann will be former pizza magnate Herman Cain, another former rival to Romney, who caused eyebrows to be raised when he briefly became the frontrunner in the bitter party nomination race, only to drop out over sexual harassment allegations. But he remains popular with many in the Tea Party, who admire his impassioned support for slashing government spending and instituting a controversial flat tax plan.

Other Tea Party darlings will include Ted Cruz, a Senate candidate in Texas who is being touted as a future party leader and has been given a high-profile speaking slot at the convention. Yet Cruz holds beliefs far outside the mainstream. He has warned that Islamic sharia law is an "enormous problem" in America, says elected officials should not march in gay pride parades and believes the UN is secretly trying to undermine America's economy and sovereignty.

And then there is another Tea Party favourite who has been given a prominent role in Tampa: real estate mogul and reality TV star Donald Trump.

Trump has told his fans to prepare for a surprise at Tampa, which is likely to be a video in which he sacks an Obama impersonator and deploys his famous "You're fired!" catchphrase. But having Trump so visible is a political risk. He is one of the leading proponents of the "Birther" movement, which questions whether Obama was born in America. His presence is hardly designed to show an air of moderation or seriousness.

A final thorn in Romney's side could be Texan congressman Ron Paul. Libertarian-leaning Paul is bowing out of national politics, but his followers are going to be vocal in Tampa, highlighting their beliefs in minimal government, an anti-war foreign policy and getting rid of the Federal Reserve. Though Paul won no individual states while he was running against Romney, his campaign later tried to exploit arcane party rules to send as many Paul-supporting delegates to the convention as possible. Fights over that "stealth strategy" have ended up in the courts and, in Louisiana, resulted in arrests and physical injuries.

Now thousands of Paul supporters are holding a three-day festival in Tampa in his honour. Paul himself will speak tomorrow night at a rally at the University of South Florida's Sun Dome. Coverage is hardly likely to leave the impression that Romney heads a united or a moderate party.

One thing that could dampen things is Hurricane Isaac, which is barrelling towards Florida and may yet force some of the convention to be delayed or cancelled. "For Romney, that is probably a blessing in disguise," said Bowler.

UPDATE: Americans Abroad

I lived abroad for about 6 years at one point in my life. I never missed an election-- not even when I was living in Afghanistan and had to ride down into Kabul on horseback to vote at the U.S. Embassy. Today's NY Times reports that expats could provide the margin of victory in a close election, which is probably a little dramatic. And not all Americans living abroad are banksters and not all are hippies.

So, how might Americans overseas be expected to vote this year? Is the conventional wisdom correct that the overseas military leans right and civilians abroad lean left? Might expats again play a crucial role in a close election?

Trying to divine expats’ electoral impact is not simple. Even their numbers are subject to wild disagreement, generally put somewhere between three million and six million. Congress considered an overseas headcount, partly because Utah had sued to ensure that Mormon missionaries be counted. Lawmakers dropped the plan when they learned it would cost some $1,450 per person, nearly 30 times the per-head cost at home, said Sheila Croucher, an immigration specialist at Miami University in Ohio.

But several studies, propelled by new interest since the 2000 election, seek to chip away at questions surrounding expats’ identity and leanings. The findings, some not previously published, help puncture at least some of the conventional wisdom about who expats are.

The common caricature is that expats tend to be affluent, or military-linked, and thus conservative; or unpatriotic malcontents, and thus left-leaning. The actual picture is more complicated.

There are businesspeople, but also students and freelance translators and English teachers and NGO workers; increasingly, too, there are technology employees whose digital work can be done anywhere.

In surveys of nearly 1,000 Americans living primarily in Western Europe, Amanda Klekowski von Koppenfels, director of migration studies for the University of Kent in Brussels, found that the largest single group-- nearly one-quarter-- were overseas because of marriage to foreigners. Only 10 to 15 percent had been sent abroad by their company or had accompanied a transferred spouse.

For her Ph.D. in politics at the University of Newcastle, in England, Judith Murray surveyed more than 800 American overseas “participators”-- those who vote in U.S. elections. She found they tended to be highly educated (89 percent with at least a Bachelor’s degree), married (60 percent), white (90 percent) and older. But they were not, largely, the leisurely, disaffected rich. The largest single professional group were those in education (22 percent).

To be sure, some Americans have left their country because of discontent with its politics. But Ms. Klekowski von Koppenfels found only a small number-- 4.5 percent-- who cited political or cultural dissatisfaction as their key motive for leaving home.

Nor is the military picture entirely black and white.

Four years ago, a survey of 4,300 U.S. career military personnel found lopsided support for the Republican-- they favored Senator John McCain, himself a former military man, by a whopping 68 percent to 23 percent over Mr. Obama.

But those surveys, by the Military Times, were of career personnel who tended to be older, more senior and less ethnically diverse than the military as a whole. Eight in 10 black respondents backed Mr. Obama.

Peter Feaver, a Duke University politics professor who studies military voting, predicted that Mr. Romney will win the military vote by percentages similar to Mr. McCain’s.

“The reason is that Romney doesn’t have the special appeal that McCain had,” he said, “but Obama doesn’t have the special appeal that Obama had, either. Obama, as near as I can tell, is underperforming his 2008 numbers in every category except maybe African-Americans.”

Richard L. Hasen, a voting specialist at the University of California-Irvine, said that despite concerted legislative efforts since 2000 to reduce obstacles to overseas voting, military participation rates remain “abysmally low.”

This year, a look at all donations from overseas-- civilian and military-- shows Mr. Obama with a big edge: The president has raised $779,000 so far to $383,368 for Mr. Romney, the Center for Responsive Politics found, using federal data.