Election Weekend In Thailand

I'm in Bangkok, right now, theoretically recuperating from a grueling month in Nepal. But it's so hot and humid here-- normally I visit Thailand in December, when it rarely gets to 90 degrees-- that it's utterly demotivating... demotivating to do anything. And for me, an air-conditioning-phobe, the bone-chilling full-blast dry freezing air indoors (including in the SkyTrain) makes it even worse. If you dress for the hot humid air you freeze when you enter any building. No one seems to have ever thought about moderation here. Which brings us to the Thai election Sunday.

The government says they'll be clamping down on "electioneering" (or coverage) starting Saturday by blocking mentions of the election on Facebook, Twitter and on blogs over the weekend. To give you an idea, let me start by pointing out that the Army Chief, Prayuth Chan-ocha, is reassuring the public that there is no coup planned if the military is unhappy with the results. More than a few people disbelieve him.

Officially Thailand claims only a 1.1% unemployment rate and a fast-growing economy. It isn't what's reflected in the streets. Before I go into the specifics of the Thai election, let me say that fake populist movements (like the one here in Thailand), controlled and financed by wealthy plutocrats are taking hold among uneducated masses-- and not just in the U.S., but everywhere in the world. Oligarchs are gambling that they will come out ahead whether the local conservative party wins or a fascist party wins.

* In the U.S. the fascist-oriented populist movement has taken over the traditional conservative party (the GOP), while the traditional liberal party has basically morphed into a conservative party. Yesterday, for example, two top-level right-of-center Democrats, Bill Clinton and Rahm Emanuel, endorsed a tax holiday on repatriating offshore corporate profits, something the Republican Party and their financiers are demanding. Clinton and Emanuel have been politically successful by serving those identical financiers.

* In France the Socialist Party is rallying behind rapist Dominique Strauss-Kahn again, even though his "socialism" is a right-wing version of corporatism akin to Blue Dog politics in America.

* This week almost every Greek Socialist voted to commit political suicide by backing austerity measures being pushed by the predatory plutocrats demanding the masses pay for the unsustainable practices of the banksters and the wealthy.

* In India, a fundamentalist swami/shill of wealthy families, Baba Ramdev, is leading a right-wing "populist" movement that makes the Tea Party look subtle.

"AUSTERITY" WORLDWIDE IS SWEEPING THE LEGITIMATE
ASPIRATIONS OF WORKING FAMILIES INTO THE GUTTER

And Thailand is no different, although almost no one is talking about it here.

Brother and sister team

Virtually all opinion polls suggest that the opposition Pheu Thai Party (PTP) will beat the ruling party by a wide margin but will need to ally with smaller parties to form the next government. No polls can be published during the final week of the campaign.

An opposition landslide would be a major blow to enemies of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who picked his younger sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, to lead the PTP and remains a key player in Thailand’s internecine politics. Red-shirt fans of Mr. Thaksin last year staged mass protests in Bangkok, provoking an Army-led crackdown that left more than 90 people dead.

Army chief Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha recently urged Thai voters not to elect “the same people” to run the country, a swipe at Thaksin and his allies who won the past three elections. Prayuth commanded troops in the 2006 coup that ousted Thaksin and is seen as a staunch defender of the monarchy, which has become a target for militant red shirts.

But for all the posturing, the military is unlikely to stage a coup in the election aftermath, though it may try to use other means to thwart a PTP-led government. Another scenario, say analysts, is a return to a cycle of street protests by anti-Thaksin yellow shirts and partisan brinkmanship, particularly if Thaksin returns to Thailand, where he faces a two-year jail term for corruption.

“I think we’ll see another attempt to undermine an election result,” says Kevin Hewison, an expert on Thailand at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

An Army colonel says that Prayuth may strike a compromise with the PTP that keeps him in his current position, installs an ally as Defense minister, and shields his officers from prosecution over last year’s bloodshed. Diplomats say PTP leaders have hinted privately at such an accommodation, even as they publicly insist that no deals are on the table.

The background of the election is complicated. The key figure, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, isn't on the ballot-- or even in the country. The fascist-oriented populist was ousted by the military, and his sister is running. As Time pointed out yesterday, Thaksin "likes to compare himself to Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Burma's pro-democracy movement."

Both are in conflict with their country's military-backed leaders. But that's where the similarities end. Suu Kyi is a Nobel Peace Prize winner, whereas Thaksin backed two violent anti-government protests. Suu Kyi spent more than decade under house arrest for her political convictions, while Thaksin fled rather than do time for corruption. Suu Kyi is a champion of democracy, Thaksin's critics call him an autocrat.

But as Thailand heads toward a national election this weekend, Thaksin looks set to get a new lease on his political life. The Pheu Thai party, which he controls from Dubai, is poised to defeat incumbent Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his Democrat Party. And the person he can thank for that turnaround is the woman he hand-picked to lead and who may become Thailand's first female prime minister: Yingluck Shinawatra-- his youngest sister.

Although Yingluck Shinawatra has never held office, the 44-year old executive has emerged as this election's brightest political star. She either carries the sheen of the Shinawatra name or the taint of Thaksin, depending upon a Thai's political point of view. Many aren't sure what to think; Polls show between 20% and 40% of voters remain undecided. The split reflects lingering anger about the violent protests that rocked Bangkok last year. To sway voters, Yingluck has cast herself as a pacifist: "As I am a female I do not encourage violence. I will unite Thailand,'' she told Time.

Indeed, Yingluck displays none of her brother's notorious temper. With her soft physicality, photogenic looks and ever-present smile, she has the aura of the "good girl" that so many Thais root for in television soap operas. "Her gender, in Thailand's male-dominated politics, also serves to take the edge off her party's portrayal as representing a dangerous autocratic extreme,'' says Hasan Basar, the founder of Bangkok Public Relations.

Although her opponent, Oxford-educated Abhisit, also has soap-star looks, he is backed by the military. Top generals haven't been shy about urging voters to elect what they call "good people," a euphemism for non-Pheu Thai candidates. The military's involvement "drives people away," says Pavin Chachavalpongpun of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies in Singapore. "They don't appreciate the direct intervention in politics.'' It also sets up a dynamic reminiscent of Burmese politics, where powerful generals appear to bully 'The Lady.' Yingluck certainly isn't Aung San Suu Kyi, but the narrative could sway some of the undecided.

If it doesn't, Yingluck and her party are offering voters a raft of goodies: free tablet computers for one million students, a guaranteed rice price, credit cards for farmers and taxi drivers, and debt moratoriums. Economists worry that the programs will create unmanageable levels of government debt. The Democrats are offering their own populist package, but it pales in comparison to Pheu Thai's giveaways.

Although much is still unknown, most analysts predict that Pheu Thai will win the most seats but not an outright majority in Thailand's 500-seat House of Representatives. In that case, the military may lobby smaller parties to join a Democrat-led coalition government. Even if Pheu Thai wins an outright majority, or succeeds in putting together a coalition, uncertainty may persist. Victors have been disqualified in the past. "If the traditional elite decide to overturn the results, a new round of violent conflict may start,'' says Pavin.

As Prime Minister Yingluck could also generate conflict by granting her exiled brother amnesty, allowing him to return to Thailand. She's vowed to clear anyone charged with political crimes in the aftermath of the 2006 coup, including her brother. "That would be a mistake,'' says Pavin. Yingluck has now back-tracked, saying only that a committee will consider amnesties. Few, however, believe she won't facilitate her brother's return. "For a Thai, where family bonds and loyalty are extremely important, it is perfectly natural and 'right' for her to do as her older brother would want her to do,'' says Hasan.

The country is so politically polarized that some prominent Thai columnists express fear of a civil war between Thaksin camp (the rural and urban poor in the north and northeast, the Red shirts and those who oppose the military meddling in politics) and anti-Thaksin factions (the Democrat Party, the military, members of the conservative establishment, middle class voters, southerners, monarchists, and the Yellow Shirts). Jon Ungpakorn, a former Senator, warns of a "long and violent civil war." "The next opportunity for reconciliation may well not arrive again for many years," he wrote.

In that sense, Sunday's election may be the easy part. With so many post-vote scenarios and warring factions, the future of Thailand, once regarded as the most stable country in Southeast Asia, looks anything but bright.

There's a PTP rally now in Lumpini Park about two miles from our apartment. It features Yingluck, and Roland thinks we should walk over. One of our favorite restaurants in town overlooks the park, the Benjarong in the Dusit Thani Hotel. Last year it was hit by a couple of grenades fired from an M79 launcher. Let's hope it's more peaceful today. I updated the situation at my travel site