Voters Everywhere Wish They Could Get A Chance To Vote For Their Governors Again

Yesterday Democracy Corps released a survey showing that buyer's remorse among voters is far from unique to people living between Buffalo and Rochester in NY-26. Paul Ryan and allies like John Boehner, Eric Cantor and Dick Cheney (above), as well as in the corporate media, can spin all they like-- and compare his fight to take health care away from seniors to Winston Churchill's fight against the right-wing Hitler regime 'til the cows come home-- and that still won't change that the narrative has shifted away from GOP nihilism. Voters have made up their minds-- for now at least-- the Republican Party means them and their families no good. As Democracy Corps put it, the election of Kathy Hochul in the most conservative district in New York "is an advance indicator of a sharp pull back from Republicans, particularly those in the House."

Disapproval of the Republicans in the House of Representatives has surged from 46 percent in February to 55 percent in April to a striking 59 percent now.  Disapproval outnumbers approval two-to-one; intense disapproval by three-to-one. For the first time in more than a year, the Democrats are clearly even in the named Congressional ballot-- an 8-point swing from the election-- and Obama has made a marked gain in his job approval and vote against Mitt Romney-- with the President now leading by 4 points. This period captured the introduction of the Republican budget plan and vote by the House-- and voters do not like what they see.
 
Perhaps most notably, this survey flags a major retreat from the Republican approach to deficits and spending, the economy, and jobs.  As the Republicans have unveiled their plans and approach during this four-month debate on the deficit, priorities and the economy, they have pushed many voters away.

Since November, the net Congressional vote has shifted 9 points-- with Democrats now actually ahead of the Republicans 46 to 45 percent.

...Voters rate the Republican Congress at a chilly (unfavorable) 43 degrees on our thermometer scale-- with cool ratings (under 50 degrees) now exceeding warm ratings (over 50 degrees) by 9 points-- a 17-point decline since February.

The Tea Party is contributing to the problem-- suffering a drop from 35 percent favorable, 41 percent unfavorable in February to 30 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable currently. They are viewed negatively by a net 14 points and are creating a headwind for Republicans.

Among Independent voters, a group largely responsible for electing the Republican House, criticism of the work of the Republicans in Congress has jumped 15 points from February (now 60 percent).

Among seniors, we see a 14-point increase in criticism of Republicans in Congress, from 43 percent negative to 57 percent negative.

Now look at this:


Last year's crop of Republican governors who have been instituting ideologically extremist-- in some cases, like in Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, blatantly fascist-- agendas would all be voted out of office if do-overs. Two of the worst, Snyder in Michigan and Walker in Wisconsin, look likely to face recall elections next year. Every poll shows John Kasich in Ohio doing worse than the one before it. Rick Scott's approval, probably already the lowest in Florida history, is heading straight into single digits. Yesterday Margie Omero, president of Momentum Analysis, a Democratic polling firm, wrote about rampant buyer's remorse for Republican governors across the nation.

The big stands House Republicans have taken so far--defunding Planned Parenthood, keeping tax breaks for the wealthy, nearly shutting down the government, and ending Medicare as we know--have all been wildly unpopular. Even with Republicans. ... Since February, Democratic firm PPP released surveys in eight states asking voters "if you could do last fall's election for Governor over again, how would you vote?" In seven of the eight, the Democrat now would win, with all seven showing double-digit improvements in their margin. (Only Rory Reid in Nevada still trails.) The chart below shows both the actual 2010 margin and the new margin, sorted by the shift.

Beneath the surface, these Republicans are losing ground with independents. Nationally in 2010, independents gave Republicans a +19 advantage. In the five states above for which we have exit poll data (FL, IA, OH, PA, WI), the Republican won among independents. Yet in six of these eight re-do polls, independents now say they would vote for the Democrat.