DCCC's Paul Ryan Protection Plan-- A Big Wet Kiss To Wall Street?

A new survey from Democracy Corps-- Carville and Greenberg's firm-- makes the case that their clients, the DCCC, can win back the House in 2012 and that "the new Republican majority [is] very much in play in 2012."

The Republican incumbents in these districts, 35 of them freshmen, remain largely unknown and appear very vulnerable in 2012 (depending on redistricting).  In fact, these incumbents are in a weaker position than Democratic incumbents were even in late 2009, or Republican incumbents were in 2007 in comparable surveys conducted by Democracy Corps.

These incumbents, identified by name, have an average approval rating of 35 percent across the 50 districts, with 25 percent disapproving.  Another 38 percent were not able to give the candidates a rating, suggesting lack of visibility.  This is about 10 points lower than the approval rating Democratic incumbents held in July of 2009 (with comparable disapproval rating).

More importantly at this early point, just 40 percent of voters in these districts say that they will vote to reelect their incumbent (asked by name in each district), while 45 percent say that they “can’t vote to reelect” the incumbent.

This leads to a congressional race that is dead-even in the battleground.  After winning these seats by a collective 14 points in 2010, these Republicans now lead generic Democratic challengers by just 2 points, 44 to 46 percent, and stand well below the critical 50 percent mark.  The race is dead even in the top tier of the 25 most competitive seats-- 46 percent for the Democrats versus 45 percent for the Republicans.  In the next 25 seats, the Republicans have a slight 42 to 47 percent advantage.

For comparison, in July 2009, after the luster of President Obama’s inauguration had already begun to fade, the Democratic incumbents in our battleground of 40 districts had a 6-point advantage over a generic Republican challenger.  36 of these 40 Democrats went on to lose their seats.  And in June of 2007, in the top 35 most competitive Republican-held districts, the incumbents also held a 6-point lead.  19 of those 35 Republicans went on to lose their seats.

And of course, we know that in 2010, two-thirds of Democrats in McCain seats could not hold on.  The Republicans in Obama seats are already at risk.

Here's the list of their battleground districts, both tiers. Wisconsin 7 and 8 are both included but conspicuously missing is Wisconsin's first district... home of the Wall Street Establishment's very favorite Republican, Paul Ryan's district. It has long been my contention that the DCCC and the Wisconsin Democratic Establishment-- I've been told at Dave Obey's direction-- have been protecting Ryan's career.

Obama beat McCain in the first CD 51-48% in 2008. And between 1970 and 1994, the district was represented by Les Aspin, a powerful Democrat who gave up the seat to serve as Bill Clinton's Secretary of Defense. After narrowly (49.9- 49.3%, a margin of 675 votes) defeating local wingnut Mark Neumann, Democrat Peter Barca served out the remainder of Aspin's term. However, the next election was Newt Gingrich's unfortunate Republican Revolution sweep of 1994, in which the Democrats lost 54 House seats. Barca was a casualty and this time Neumann won 49.4- 48.8%, a margin of 1,120 votes. Neumann narrowly won reelection in 1996 and then ran, unsuccessfully, against Russ Feingold (who is also from the first CD) for the U.S. Senate. That's when Ryan picked up the House seat, the only time the DCCC made an effort-- albeit an unsuccessful one-- to support a candidate against him. Ryan beat Lydia Spottswood 57-43%.

In 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006 Ryan's Democratic challenger was Jeffrey Thomas, a retired orthopedic surgeon from Ryan's hometown of Janesville. Thomas' only issue for his first three runs was health care and he never quite cracked a third of the vote but in 2006 he ran against Ryan's shady relationship with Republican corruptionists Jack Abramoff and Tom DeLay and boosted his share of the vote to 37%. In 2006 Ryan raised over $1.6 million and Thomas, who steadfastly refused to raise money for campaigns, spent $5,000 of his own. The DCCC ignored all 4 campaigns, giving Ryan an aura of invincibility. In 2008-- while Obama was winning the district-- Ryan beat Marge Krupp 64-35% and last November he did best of all-- against the most pathetic of DCCC-planted candidates, John Heckenlively, 68-30%.

Democracy Corps' battleground districts include several Republican non-freshmen: Dan Lungren (CA), Charlie Dent (PA), Dave Reichert (WA), David Dreier (CA), Ken Calvert (CA), Mary Bono Mack (CA), C.W. Bill Young (FL), Peter Roskam (IL), Don Manzullo (IL), Thaddeus McCotter (MI). Leonard Lance (NJ), and Pat Tiberi (OH). Manzullo, whose district borders Ryan's, won reelection with 65% and Peter Roskam's district is just minutes away by car and he won with 64%. I'm glad the DCCC will be looking to win in these districts. But why not talk seriously about Ryan? Last cycle they sent out a series of puffy anti-Ryan press releases, which they're doing again this year, but when it comes to seriously giving him a run for Wall Street's money... nothing, nada, zilch.

In the past, when I've approached Democratic leaders in the district-- and the district is filled with high ranking Assembly and Senate leaders-- they all said the same thing: the DCCC isn't interested and its too expensive to run without their help; and Ryan will run for higher office one day and it will be easy to win the district then.

It's time for that way of thinking to disappear. And the way politics are playing out in Wisconsin, this could well be the year. Voters have major buyers' remorse over extremist Governor Scott Walker and the majorities they gave Republicans in the state legislature. Next week they are likely to defeat two Walker cronies, one running for his old job as Milwaukee County Executive and one running for reelection to the state Supreme Court. The recall effort against 8 Republican senators who voted to take away the rights of unions to bargain collectively is coming along smoothly and looks like it will result in a Democratic majority-- and a check on Walker-- by next year, when a Recall Walker effort will kick in. Paul Ryan has tried keeping a relatively low profile on the turmoil that is roiling his state, but when pushed, he backs Walker. Is it enough to end one of the dangerous political careers in America?


Blue America has been talking with a number of political leaders we think could beat Ryan. Our first choice is state Senator Chris Larson. The GOP is likely to try to gerrymander WI-1 to make it safer for Ryan, although it will be hard to do that without jeopardizing Wisconsin's senior Republican House member, Jim Sensenbrenner. Right now Ryan and Larson represent some of the same constituents, though not many. But Larson's effective high profile leadership in the battle against Walker's tyrannical approach has caught the attention of everyone in Wisconsin. We've added him to our Stop Paul Ryan ActBlue page. If you'd like to help us encourage him, please consider donating $5 or $10 to his campaign coffer.