How Badly Will Trump Hurt Republican Candidates In North Carolina And Wisconsin?

Trump Snowball Effect by Nancy Ohanian

New polling from CNN shows Trump losing among likely voters in both Wisconsin and North Carolina. Trump is down 3 points in North Carolina and 10 points in Wisconsin. Although Trump won both states in 2016, Wisconsin had a statewide election since then which was disastrous for the GOP. Bernie/Biden-backed Jill Karofsky ousted Trump-backed state Supreme Court justice Daniel Kelly by an astonishingly wide margin-- 855,573 (55.21%) to 693,134 (44.73%). In North Carolina, Trump's 50.5% to 46.7% win over Hillary was marred when Democrat Roy Cooper defeated Trump ally Pat McCrory 2,281,155 (49.0%) to 2,276,383 (48.9%).

Wisconsin

CNN reported that among likely Wisconsin voters, Biden is widely viewed as more apt to unite the country (55% to 36%) and handle racial inequality in the US (55% to 38%). He is more trusted by a 13-point margin on the coronavirus outbreak (54% to 41%). He is more often seen as having a clear plan to solve the country's problems (49% to 43%) and has the edge on keeping Americans safe from harm (50% to 45%). Wisconsin likely voters split evenly on who would better handle the economy (49% Trump to 48% Biden) and who has the stamina and sharpness to be president (47% Trump to 44% Biden)." Trump's job approval is underwater in both states, by 8 points in North Carolina and 15 points in Wisconsin.

About a third of likely voters in each state "express deep worry about the coronavirus outbreak in their community." Yesterday, North Carolina reported 1,106 new COVID cases, bringing the state total to 186,887 (17,819 cases per million residents). Wisconsin reported 1,348 new cases, bringing their total to 91,304 (15,681 cases per million residents). Both states are in the midst of harsh spikes.

North Carolina

The North Carolina U.S. Senate race is a toss-up in the poll, with 47% of likely voters saying they back the Democrat Cal Cunningham and 46% for incumbent Republican Thom Tillis. Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has a lead in his bid for reelection, 53% support him, 44% his Republican challenger Dan Forest.

A majority of Wisconsin likely voters (53%) say they plan to cast their ballots in-person on Election Day, while 27% say they want to vote by mail and 19% by using an in-person absentee ballot. North Carolina's likely voters, however, are far more likely to plan to vote early or absentee, with just 38% saying they aim to vote on Election Day. A plurality, 42%, say they will vote early in-person, and 18% say they aim to vote by mail.

In both states, however, preferences on how to cast one's ballot are politicized. Less than a third of Biden supporters plan to vote on Election Day in either state (28% in Wisconsin, 22% in North Carolina), while among Trump backers, majorities in both places say they will vote on November 3 (83% in Wisconsin, 57% in North Carolina). The overall share saying they plan to vote on Election Day in North Carolina is larger than the share who voted that way in 2016, and that's mostly because of Trump's supporters. In 2016, about a third of votes in the state were cast on Election Day. Of all the votes Trump received, 37% came from in-person voting on Election Day.

New Wisconsin polling from Morning Consult was released at the end of the day yesterday. It shows Trump lagging Biden by 9 points: 51% to 42%, Trump with downward momentum.

I asked both Blue America-endorsed Wisconsin state Assembly candidates, Jacob Malinowski in the Milwaukee suburbs (next to beet red Waukesha) and Emily Voight (south of Green Bay on the northeast shore of Lake Winnebago) if Trump's loss of support statewide is resonating in their own races. Emily reminded us that "Wisconsin is a deeply gerrymandered state, one of the most gerrymandered states in the country. Even though my district, Assembly District 3, is heavily gerrymandered in favor of a Republican, our campaign is getting a lot of positive responses. I've had moderate Republicans and Independents contacting me, telling me they will vote for me because they do not like how the Republicans have been mishandling the COVID-19 pandemic. They have praised me on calling out my opponent's indiscriminate covert racism on his personal FaceBook posts. Wisconsin is truly a swing state, and when we feel that the administration in DC has gone too far one way, we tend to vote the opposite. And while it was an uncontested primary in August, our campaign received 108 more votes than the incumbent. I think Wisconsin is ready for a change!"

Malinowski noted that Trump's "apparent underperformance in Wisconsin will directly help down-ballot candidates like me all across the Milwaukee suburbs. Sen. Baldwin and Justice Karofsky both way over-performed Hilary Clinton's margins, which means that plenty of folks are willing to vote for left-leaning candidates. If President Trump loses Wisconsin by the 6ish points he's at now, we've got a real chance to flip some of these state legislative seats."

For some valuable context, we'll wrap this up with a few words from our old friend state Senator Chris Larson, the guy I know who knows the most about Wisconsin electoral politics:

Wisconsin Republicans are stuck in a bind. Many had hoped their party would have turned the page on Donald Trump after his much-anticipated, never-arriving loss of 2016. Then, they could have pretended the xenophobic, racist, mysogninistic views he expressed were unique only to him and not reflected in years of policies that whispered just as much.

Instead, Trump won. While the country has had to pay the biggest price for his self-serving malfeasance, the Republican Party has had to pay the political cost. Paul Ryan cashed in his spine to Trump and refused to stand up to him. Ryan was rewarded for with outcry from Wisconsin and was forced to abandon his once-safe congressional seat, announcing his retirement just days after it was disclosed $4.75 million was already raised by Randy Bryce, the blue-collar, cancer-surviving, union-card-holding veteran running against him.

Former Governor Scott Walker is now remembered as the guy who dropped out of the presidential race in an attempt to rally other institutional Republicans to rally against Trump. Instead, he whiplashed back into line for Trump after the primary. As a reward, Walker was tossed from office in the ensuing backlash against the party that surrendered all authority to a morally and financially bankrupt reality star.

The Republican Party is more strained in Wisconsin than it's been in the last decade. While Trump continues to implode and be his own worst enemy on the campaign trail, he leaves no choice for Republicans but to also tie themselves to the mass of the sinking ship.

America is worse off than it was 4 years ago in terms of a crashed economy, record job losses, a heating planet, and the worst response to the pandemic on the planet. Each of these have been amplified in my home state and Republicans incumbents are being called to atone for 6 months of inaction in the fact of mounting crises. Wisconsinites demand more than echoing FoxNews and trying to "trigger the libs." We've seen family farms close at a rate of two per day and the response from Trump's Ag Secretary was to spike the ball in their face as they continued to favor corporate farms and trade policies that hurt the dairy industry.

While smarter Republicans try to pretend they haven't seen Trump's latest tweets/interviews/speeches, some of the newer candidates have found themselves unbound to hold back on their racism.

Every state Rep is up and the ballot with Trump and Democrats have momentum going into the final stretch. With the census around the corner, there is a genuine opportunity to make lasting change to finally address our biggest problems with bold, progressive policies.

With The DCCC Ignoring Wisconsin Again, The GOP Incumbents Are All Safe-- Unlkess They Caught COVID Over The Weekend And Die Before November

Nationally, Republicans have, by and large but with a few exceptions, fought against Democratic governors trying to protect their states' residents from the worst of the pandemic. But no Republican-dominated state legislature has been more pro-COVID than Wisconsin's. They have worked hard-- and effectively-- to prevent Gov. Tony Evers, a very moderate Democrat, from instituting rules to keep the state safe. The Republicans have given Wisconsin 36,448 cases of the disease-- 6,260 cases per Wisconsinite. On Saturday there were 926 new cases reported (and 7 new deaths). Yesterday the state reported another new 769 cases. Each case and each death should come with an engraved card signed by Assembly Speaker Robin Vos and state Senate president Scott Fitzgerald: "brought to you by the Wisconsin Republican Party; you can thank us in November."

Remember this report from CNN in April? "Wisconsin's Republican-led legislature filed a lawsuit Tuesday in an attempt to reopen the state and block the extension of a stay-at-home order issued by state health officials to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The lawsuit was filed against Wisconsin's Department of Health Services Secretary-designee Andrea Palm and other health officials, who recently extended the state's Safer at Home" emergency order until May 26, but loosened some restrictions on certain businesses. In the complaint, lawmakers argue that if this order remains in effect, 'many Wisconsinites will have lost their jobs, and many companies will have gone under, to say nothing of the Order's countless other downstream societal effects. Our State will be in shambles.'" The state Supreme Court is a right-wing sewer and it ruled-- as it always does-- in favor of the Republicans and the Trump Death Cult.

This came right after the GOP tried to suppress voting in the April 7 election by overriding Evers' decisions to allow people to vote remotely. It backfired on the Republicans when Wisconsinites turned out in droves and defeated a far right lunatic, Daniel Kelly, and replaced him with Jill Karofsky, a Democrat. She crushed him-- the symbol of the state Republican Party-- 855,981 (55.3%) to 692,523 (44.7%).

The following month, though, Evers just basically gave up fighting the non-stop harassment by the legislature. The Associated Press wire story on May 18:

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers said Monday that he's given up trying to push through any more statewide restrictions to slow the spread of the coronavirus because he thinks rival Republicans emboldened by a state Supreme Court decision erasing his stay-at-home order would never allow any.

Minutes after his administration scrapped plans for a new emergency rule, Evers told reporters during a teleconference that drafting rules would be a waste of time given the GOP opposition. His stance leaves local health officials on their own as they wrestle with whether and how to maintain social distancing mandates.

"The Republicans made it very clear they don't believe a statewide approach is the right way to go at this point in time," Evers said. "It doesn't make a lot of sense spending a lot of time doing something we know isn't going to be successful."

Wisconsin is one of a number of states where governors have run into resistance from Republican legislators over coronavirus restrictions. Democratic governors in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Louisiana have faced a mix of legislation and lawsuits designed to curtail their power. Wisconsin's conservative-leaning state Supreme Court didn't hold back, completely erasing Evers' stay-at-home order last week after Republican legislators alleged that the administration had exceeded its authority.

The decision threw the state into chaos. Some bars and restaurants opened immediately while a handful of county officials issued their own stay-at-home orders. Now, the state has a confusing patchwork of regulations that vary from county to county.

The DHS released plans for a new statewide emergency rule the day after the court ruling. The agency said the new rule may contain elements of the stay-at-home order and Evers' phased business re-opening plan. Republicans pounced on the statement, saying Evers was trying to circumvent the court ruling and reinstate a stay-at-home order.

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos said Thursday the two sides might not reach agreement and it will be up to the locals to implement their own restrictions. Republican state Sen. Steve Nass, co-chairman of the Legislature's rules committee, demanded on Friday that the governor withdraw plans for a new rule. The DHS complied on Monday and scrapped them.

Vos called Evers' position "disappointing" but said Republicans will keep working with local public health agencies to see if they need help addressing localized outbreaks in the future.

Alec Zimmerman, a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, pointed to a statement Fitzgerald issued Friday saying that the scope statement was too focused on a phased re-opening and the state needs to move faster.

Nass said he has "great faith" that people will make the decisions necessary to fight COVID-19 on their own "without excessive government coercion."

As of Monday, Wisconsin had recorded 12,687 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 459 deaths from the disease, according to DHS data.

Repeating myself, as of yesterday, Wisconsin reported another 769 cases, bringing the state's total to 36,448, all compliments of the Republican Party. No doubt there will be a Green Bay spike next month. Why Green Bay?

Over the weekend hundreds of Republicans were in Green Bay at the party's state convention, coughing on each other and spreading the contagion while they screamed and went into fits about socialism and anarchy. Of the between 3 and 4 hundred people in the Convention Center, Wisconsin Public Television reported that only about a dozen chose to wear a mask.

The disease-spreading freaks in the video up top, Congressman Glenn Grothman was the day's most aggressive defender of Señor Trumpanzee. "It is a disaster for this country if he loses. It'll be open borders. I'm afraid we won't get it back... Marxists have always been opposed to the family. It shows what danger we are in if we would lose."

Wisconsin COVID-candidfate

The 5 Republicans in Wisconsin's congressional delegation have no worries there. Regular DCCC incompetence has handed all 5 incumbents easy reelections-- even in a wave election. Bryan Steil, a freshman in a swing district who should be extremely vulnerable, has no plausible opponent. The odious state Senate president and major death cult official, Scott Fitzgerald, is waltzing into the seat from which Jim Sensenbrenner is retiring, with no plausible opposition. Psycho-Grothman has no plausible opposition. Nor do either Mike Gallagher nor freshman Tom Tiffany. Odd, when you consider that, on average, Biden is ahead of Trump in Wisconsin by 6.5 points. In the most recent poll-- by Change Research for CNBC-- Biden leads Trump 51 to 43% among likely Wisconsin voters. Too bad the DCCC has put all its effort into stopping progressives like Marie Newman, Jessica Cisneros, Eva Putzova and Jamaal Bowman from ousting their miserable Blue Dog incumbents instead of capitalizing on an anti-red wave and making efforts to turn swing states like Wisconsin blue.

Unfortunately, Randy Bryce isn't running for office this cycle. He's been active helping working class candidates raise money and awareness in Wisconsin and around the country. He told me that "Ever since every Wisconsin Democrat that was in a statewide race won in 2018 the state GOP has done what they could to strip the governor of power. Republicans aren’t in power because of popularity. They’re in power in the legislature because of gerrymandering. It’s because of this that they feel they can get away with anything-- even subjecting people to a deadly pandemic. This helps explain why they had an in person statewide convention. If you notice, quite a few electeds didn’t show up. Notably absent was Senator Ron Johnson who also spent July 4th in Russia not too long ago as well as Aassembly SpeakerRyan Robin Vos who you might recall having been decked out in PPE better than many local nurses are able to access. It wasn’t a surprise to have Glenn Grothman get up on stage and cough into the crowd. With so many people hurting due to the pandemic it’s not too big of a surprise to see that the only thing Wisconsin Republicans want to share is COVID."

Blue America has endorsed just two candidates for the Wisconsin legislature so far: Jacob Malinowski-- for a state Assembly seat representing Franklin in a red-leaning district southwest of Milwaukee-- and Emily Voight, for an Assembly seat southwest of Green Bay on the northeast bank of Lake Winnebago in Calumet County. We're also looking at Sara Rodriguez and Deb Andraca. But my friend Chris Larson (a Democratic state Senator for a district just east of where Jacob is running) is way more optimistic than I am about Wisconsin this November. This morning he told me that there is a real "chance to turn Wisconsin blue again and defeat Trump," and that "we also have the next decade hanging in the balance. Because whoever wins gets to decide redistricting, we have the chance to end the Tea Party control of our state once and for all by simply forcing the implementation of fair maps. With a Democratic Governor, the people have a seat at the table but due to the gerrymandering Republicans did in 2010 (Despite winning 54% of the votes in Assembly races, Democrats won just 36% of the seats), they need to flip just 3 seats in each house to gain a veto-proof majority. This would let them again draw maps that tilt the playing field in their favor and against the will of the people. But beyond just holding our ground, we have a real chance at picking up crucial seats and holding Republicans accountable for their botched response to COVID, their defunding of public education, their systematic attacks on working people, and for the largest corporate giveaway in our country's history. We need all the help we can get. The future of our state hangs in the balance."

Tomorrow Is Election Day In Wisconsin-- And What A Mess!

The situation is fluid in a state with an extreme right-wing legislature and an overly tepid Democratic governor at odds over tomorrow's election. Today the governor, Tony Evers finally called off in-person voting and postponed the election until June 9th because of the pandemic. The Republicans screamed bloody murder and the rightist state Supreme Court sided with them and ordered the in-person voting to go forward ruling that Evers doesn't have the authority to do any such thing. In March Evers had ordered a stay-at-home order for the state, which has 2,267 confirmed cases and 80 deaths.

There are no other states that haven't cancelled in-person voting for the month of April. Virtually all Democrats are in agreement with this, except Biden who-- as usual-- is on the same page as the GOP. One of the most important races in the state is the runoff for Milwaukee County executive, a job that often leads to the governor's mansion. Blue America has endorsed progressive state Senator Chris Larson for the job. This afternoon, Larson sent this out-- before the state Supreme Court ruled against Evers-- to his supporters:

It seems impossible to stay up to date on all the latest news around COVID, the election, and what is and isn’t happening. One very real and likely possibility is that the election will still happen tomorrow and the loosening of when absentee ballots are accepted may again be tightened.

My priority, first and foremost, is the health of each of our neighbors.

For the sake of public safety, I do hope the election is delayed and efforts are made to have every eligible voter vote by absentee ballot in the safest way possible. That’s what I’ve been advocating for from the beginning. But you and I have very limited control over what is actually going to happen. So, we should hope for the best but plan for the worst.

Sadly, I’m writing to say we should plan for the worst. Although Governor Evers did the right thing in calling for a delay in the election, that is likely to be overturned before 7 am tomorrow. Given the uncertainty surrounding the election, many may not vote at all. That said, the most certain way to have your vote counted is to vote on your absentee ballot, have it properly witnessed, and then turn it in directly to your clerk as soon as possible.

If you have not received an absentee ballot, you should make a plan to vote in-person tomorrow. In addition to bringing your ID, I recommend giving yourself plenty of time, wearing a mask, keep six feet of distance between people, and bringing your own black pen to fill out the ballot.

Your election location almost certainly changed. Please check your new location here.

For weeks, I have championed changes to open up access to the ballot box, including sending an absentee ballot to each registered voter as well as extending the deadline for when those ballots will be accepted. Those bills have not sadly not advanced and the legislature continues to fail to convene.

We're actively monitoring the quickly changing situation around the dates and rules surrounding this election. We want to ensure every voter has the opportunity to cast a ballot in a way that is equitable and safe. If there are definitive changes made by the US Supreme Court, the Wisconsin Supreme Court, the Wisconsin Election Commission, the state legislature, or a state agency, we will send a follow-up email.

Again-- given the uncertainty around the election, I encourage voters to take steps to get their absentee ballots in as quickly as possible by in-person drop-off. Check with your local municipality to confirm your designated drop-off site. If you do not have an absentee ballot, make a plan to vote safely tomorrow, April 7th.

Lastly, please continue to look after you and your neighbor’s health. If you don’t think you can go and vote safely please stay home. I would rather have you as my neighbor moving forward as we begin the important work of rebuilding Milwaukee County together than have you risk your health to cast a ballot for me. Yes, this election matters but you matter more. Do what you think is best-- no judgment.

Some say the presidential primary part of this election could be-- I hope not-- Bernie's last stand. In 2016 he thoroughly beat the status quo candidate but polls now show Status Quo Joe leading. There have been rumors that if Bernie doesn't win tomorrow the case for him staying in the race will weaken considerably. The 2016 primary saw him beat Hillary 567,936 (56.6%) to 432,767 (43.1%). Of the state's 72 counties, Hillary only won one-- Milwaukee. Hillary harbored so much animus towards the state for her crushing defeat that she didn't bother campaigning there and ceded it to Trump, one of the top factors that brought him to the White House. If Bernie wins tomorrow, he'll be the come-back kid and would have a shot at turning the race for the nomination around. This doesn't look good-- but it also doesn't look impossible. A lot has happened in the last month and little of it has made Biden look like a viable candidate.

Earlier this evening Bernie sent this message to his supporters in Wisconsin: "It's outrageous that the Republican legislative leaders and the conservative majority on the Supreme Court in Wisconsin are willing to risk the health and safety of many thousands of Wisconsin voters tomorrow for their own political gain. Let's be clear: holding this election amid the coronavirus outbreak is dangerous, disregards the guidance of public health experts, and may very well prove deadly. For that reason, our campaign will not be engaged in any traditional GOTV efforts."

RACE ALERT-- This Coming Tuesday Chris Larson Is Up For Milwaukee County Executive

I met Wisconsin state Senator Chris Larson through People for the American Way, when he was one of their most active members of Young Elected Officials. As you may know Blue America has endorsed him in the current race for Milwaukee County Executive, an office that has often led directly to Wisconsin's governorship. I was thrilled yesterday when Michael Keegan, president of People for the American Way, told me that PFAW had endorsed Larson as well. He agreed to write a guest post explaining why. Please give it a read and please consider contributing to Chris' field campaign by clicking on the thermometer below. And by the way, that video up top is absolutely amazing. It isn't like other campaign videos. But what would you expect... Chris isn't like most other people running for office. Chris is part of the future of Milwaukee County, of Wisconsin and of the United States. Southeast Wisconsin progressive legend, Randy IronStache Bryce: "The first time I met Chris was when he stood up to Scott Walker and did everything he could to keep Act 10 from passing. He hasn't stopped standing up for working people since that day. He has the experience we need to get the job done."

Milwaukee is often called one of the country's most segregated cities and is infamously the setting for Matthew Desmond's book Evicted. Larson has promised to address systemic racism by treating racism as the public health crisis it is and centering the voices of all those who have been marginalized in every decision as County Executive. Specifically, he's promised to end family homelessness in his first term, increase mediation services for landlords and tenants as an incentive not to evict so readily, and increase affordable housing. In addition to addressing housing through the lens of racism, Larson has promised to secure dedicated funding for transit (Milwaukee is one of few peer cities that doesn't have it), and ensure bus routes are dismantling, not furthering segregation. Under the Larson Administration, Milwaukee will refuse to deputize local law enforcement agents as ICE agents, fight mass incarceration and ensure all publications that the County puts out represent and celebrate our diverse community.

Wisconsin State Senator Chris Larson Leads The Pack In Key Primary Race
by Michael Keegan

In October 2019, Democratic Milwaukee County Executive Chris Abele announced that he would not seek a third term in office in 2020. Since then, four candidates have stepped up in the nonpartisan primary to fill Abele’s open seat-- and among them, one clearly stands out.

Democratic state Sen. Chris Larson, a lifelong Wisconsinite with twelve years of public service, is running to make sure that the people of Milwaukee County have a leader who will fight for every member of the community, regardless of their race, ethnicity, income or citizenship status.

People For the American Way has witnessed Larson’s career as a public servant blossom for nearly a decade. Larson’s political career began in 2008 at the age of 27 as a Milwaukee County Supervisor. Two years later, he was elected as a state senator. During that time, he’s demonstrated his ability to get the work done on the issues that matter most to the people of Wisconsin, like funding for public schools; accessible, affordable health care; clean water and workers’ bargaining rights.

For example, in 2011, when Republican legislators pushed a bill that would virtually kill Wisconsin’s public-sector unions, Larson didn’t back down. Instead, he stood up for working Wisconsinites and led a nearly month-long walkout with 13 other Democratic state senators. The “fighting 14” left the state, leaving the Senate one vote shy of a quorum and inspiring tens of thousands of working Wisconsinites to join them in protest. An estimated 100,000 convened again to thank the senators upon their homecoming. The most prominent refrain at that rally? “This is what democracy looks like.”

Larson is running on the same progressive values in his campaign for Milwaukee County Executive. He hasn’t accepted a single dollar from any corporate PAC, fossil fuel or dark money groups, and as he has proven in his previous roles, he is committed to using his seat to ensure a better quality of life for his constituents. 

The position of Milwaukee County Executive-- the second-highest executive position in the state-- governs the 952,000 people in the county and the $1.2 billion budget associated with it. Larson has promised to leverage that position and budget to end family homelessness, increase the county’s shared revenue, secure dedicated funding for transit, and protect and county enhance parks and senior centers.

Simply put, Chris Larson has a clear vision for the future, and it’s one in which every person in Milwaukee County has an equal chance at success. PFAW and our Next Up Victory Fund are proud to support dedicated young progressives as they tackle their communities’ challenges head-on. Chris Larson has long shown such leadership, and we’re proud to endorse him for Milwaukee County Executive.

Guest Post By Chris Larson-- Why Milwaukee Matters

-by State Senator Chris Larson

There’s an old adage in politics, "as goes Wisconsin, so goes the country." In 2016, Trump became the first Republican candidate to win in Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan in 1984. In 2018, Wisconsin re-elected the country’s first openly LGBTQ Senator-- Tammy Baldwin-- by approximately 11%.

Wisconsin’s status as a swing state is well known, but what is less known is Milwaukee’s strong history of progressive politics. Two Milwaukee Mayors-- Emil Seidel, who served from 1910-1912 and Dan Hoan, who served from 1916-1940-- were nicknamed the "Sewer Socialists" because of their focus on infrastructure that wouldn’t poison people with contaminated water. From public health to public housing, their legacy is imprinted not only in Milwaukee and Wisconsin but around the country.

In 2020, Milwaukee’s stamp on the national political stage’s history will further be cemented with the Democratic National Committee Convention (DNCC). And that’s why it is crucial we elect a progressive Democrat to be Milwaukee County Executive; the second-most powerful executive position in the state. When the national spotlight is on Milwaukee throughout the DNCC and election day in 2020, we must have a progressive leader using that position to move an agenda of our shared values forward-- immediately.

As a County Supervisor, State Senator and Democratic Leader in the Legislature, I have consistently fought to fund the programs and services that will enhance the quality of life of my neighbors. From fighting for workers rights to collective bargaining rights during the Act 10 protests to pushing a state-wide version of the Green New Deal, over my last 12 years in public service, I’ve been fine with picking a fight when needed. Especially when it comes to the outsized influence of money in politics, which is why I’ve promised to run a clean campaign, free from corporate PAC and dark money, and fought for increased transparency in the capitol.

Milwaukee County is both Wisconsin’s economic engine and a critical cultural center. Having grown up here, I know how important the county services are to our county residents. Three things come immediately to mind when I think about how the next County Executive can make a difference without the state legislature’s approval.

One, we need to safeguard and improve our parks and green spaces. As long as I am County Executive, I will not sell any of our parks and will not put meters on our lakefront. Everyone deserves access to free quality public space, period.

Two, we must secure dedicated funding for our transit. I’ve fought that fight as County Supervisor-- we passed a tax when everyone said we couldn’t do it-- and at the state level as a State Senator. Now, the hurdle is state laws that don’t allow local communities to decide what’s best for them. It’s important that the next County Executive isn’t learning as they go, but instead leads because they know where to go. I just recently had a conversation with Governor Evers regarding a state-wide campaign to allow more revenue flexibility, and as the County Executive, my experience at the state and local levels puts me in the unique position to successfully advocate for this change.

Three, I will immediately take steps to empower the people-- and by extension their elected officials on Milwaukee County’s Board of Supervisors-- to bring things to the top and reverse the consolidation of power into one office.

I’m a realist as much as I am a progressive, and I know that with the ultra-conservative grip on legislative power in our Wisconsin Capitol, it is likely the next Milwaukee County Executive will not be able to accomplish every goal on their list. Yet, we must use every tool at our disposal to advance a progressive agenda, and that includes ensuring that when that national spotlight is on Milwaukee, it is shining our positive, progressive example to show the world why progressive values work.

The End Of Democracy... In Wisconsin?

Me The People by Nancy Ohanian

When I was in grade school, we were taught to laugh at elections in the Soviet Union, North Korea, North Vietnam, Egypt and other authoritarian countries, especially when there was just one person on the ballot-- the incumbent-- and he got 98.5% of the vote. Even the most popular leaders in a democracy aren't reelected with numbers like that. The biggest reelections for any American president were in 1964 (LBJ's 61.05%) and 1936 (FDR's 60.80%). Even the rest of the most immensely popular presidents were reelected with majorities under 60%-- Reagan (58.77%), Eisenhower (57.37%), Lincoln (55.03%)...

Republican efforts to suppress votes in Wisconsin are widely known and have been going on for over a decade, from heavily gerrymandered maps (wherein 2018, Democrats received 54% of votes but only 38% of Congressional seats) to voter ID requirements (which kept nearly 17,000 registered Wisconsinites from the polls in November 2016).

Republicans have also blocked repeated attempts to implement Automatic Voter Registration. AVR was introduced in Gov. Evers' most recent budget, but it was eliminated by Republicans on the Joint Finance Committee, and then State Senator Chris Larson drafted an amendment to reinsert the provision, subsequently blocked by the Republicans from being voted on.

In addition to gerrymandering maps, instituting voter ID requirements, and blocking Automatic Voter Registration efforts, Republicans in Wisconsin are also actively purging voters from the rolls ahead of 2020'e elections. It was no accident that Democratic areas were targeted in a recent purge: one out of every eight Milwaukeeans are on the list.

Voter suppression in Wisconsin isn't limited to racist voter ID laws, blocking legislation of common sense automatic voter registration language, and unfair purges. Funding to ensure polling locations are accessible has fallen, resulting in Wisconsin's gap for for those with disabilities being able to cast their votes being twice as wide as the national average.

And now they are preventing challengers from being on the ballot. Yesterday, WISN News in Madison, Wisconsin reported who the winner of the April 7th 2020 Republican primary in their state will be: Señor Trumpanzee. How can they be so sure? The state's authoritarian Republican Party decide that only Señor T will be allowed on the ballot, excluding former Illinois Congressman Joe Walsh and former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld. The state GOP's decision was entirely arbitrary and not all that different from the way North Korea conducts "elections."

"I'm pissed off," Walsh told WISN 12 News while campaigning in New Hampshire. "I’m on the ballot in California and Texas but not Wisconsin. Florida, but not Wisconsin. How much sense does that make? That's a bunch of (expletive). That’s a bunch of B.S. The Wisconsin party chairman is on his knees right now kissing Donald Trump's feet."

Per state law, the Wisconsin Presidential Preference Selection Committee has the sole discretion to determine who appears on the ballot based upon candidates who are "generally advocated or recognized in the national news media throughout the United States."

Andrew Hitt, chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, said Walsh and Weld weren’t included because they didn’t qualify in several other states and have done little campaigning in Wisconsin.

"President Trump's first term in office brought record success to the American people and we look forward to re-electing him this November," Hitt said in a statement.

...In a tweet, Weld said the president's "party bosses in Wisconsin just told millions of voters they don't deserve a choice in the Republican primary. That's now how a democracy works and certainly not the way the party of competition and freedom should work. Shameful."

Democrats settled on 14 names that will appear: Michael Bennett, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar, Deval Patrick, Bernie Sanders, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren, Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang.

James Wigderson, seemed pretty pissed off on RightWisconsin yesterday in a post he wrote, Wisconsin GOP Cowards, calling the move "a bizarre, cowardly twist in the history of Wisconsin presidential primaries... And let’s stress just how cowardly this was. It was extremely unlikely either Walsh or Weld could pull off a victory in Wisconsin. Trump’s support among Republicans is solid with no signs that anything the president does will ever have any effect. We’re a long way from 2016 when Wisconsin was the last state for anti-Trump forces to register their displeasure with the eventual nominee in the presidential primary. Then, Wisconsin conservatives largely united around Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) to give him a last big victory before the Republican convention when Wisconsin native and then-GOP Chairman Reince Priebus effectively silenced any opposition. Today, almost all of the voices in the Wisconsin GOP that ever dared to criticize the president are gone. Former House Speaker Paul Ryan is now living in Washington D.C. Former Governor Scott Walker is out of office and a Trump loyalist. Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI05), who voted against the president using emergency powers to take funds for the southern border wall, is retiring, and he’s likely to be replaced by state Sen. Scott Fitzgerald (R-Juneau) who called on Republicans to join the 'Trump Train' in 2016."

So why avoid a primary that the Trump campaign knows it can win?

One, Wisconsin is a swing state and the last thing the Trump campaign wants is any primary campaign waged against it here. If the Democrats are going to win Wisconsin, let them spend their own resources.

Two, as Ringo Starr said, “tomorrow never knows.” If elections were always predictable, then Trump wouldn’t be in the White House. An embarrassment is certainly possible, especially if former National Security Advisor John Bolton testifies at the Senate Impeachment Trial of the president.

But surely the Republican Party owes it to their voters, unlikely to cast a vote for the Democrat in November, a chance to cast a protest vote against Trump’s abhorrent personal behavior and tariff policies? Or will the Republicans only be happy when their suburban voters cast votes for former Vice President Joe Biden in November?

Also, Wisconsin has a state Supreme Court election the same day. Surely the Wisconsin GOP would want to encourage as many of its voters to go to the polls as possible, either for or against the sitting president. Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Dan Kelly, a conservative, will need every vote he can get when there are so many Democratic presidential candidates trying to drag Democratic voters out on Election Day.

It’s ironic that the Republican Party made the decision they did on Tuesday here in Wisconsin of all places. Wisconsin was one of the first states to strike back against the backroom deals that made presidential candidates by adopting presidential primaries at the beginning of the 20th century, a move strongly supported by the Republican Party of that time.

Now, over 100 years later, Republicans want to abandon that heritage. The room may be smoke free, but the stench of a closed-door deal is still present.

It’s especially ironic that the Trump campaign is engaging in such tactics given his campaign’s lawsuit to force California to put his name on the ballot even if the candidate fails to comply with the requirement to release his personal tax information.

It’s worth reminding Trump supporters that, had it been possible to lock Trump out of the nominating process in 2016, the Republican Party would have done so. Now to deny ballot access to Trump’s opponents within the Republican Party is not only hypocritical, it sets a bad precedent for future presidential contests.

We have no love for Weld or for Walsh. Weld is a liberal, a one-time Libertarian Party candidate for Vice President, and so ill-liked within the Republican Party his proposed ambassadorship to Mexico was blocked by conservatives in the U.S. Senate. Walsh has made a career of sounding just like Trump (or worse) and now claims to repent for his behavior.

But this unseemly behavior by the Republican Party and its representatives on the Presidential Preference Selection Committee must be called out. Trump should not be allowed to hide from democracy.

If the Republican Party wants to abandon primaries entirely, and let backroom deals decide all of the party’s future nominees, then it should state so now. Trump’s supporters would not like the results.

State Senator Chris Larson is once again challenging corporate PAC money's influence in his grassroots campaign for Milwaukee County Executive. He told me yesterday that his "goal is to build a county where every Milwaukeean can thrive. As a staunch defender of unions, proven fighter for the working class, and a persistent challenger of the establishment, I know Milwaukee County needs a bold, progressive agenda set and enacted by a leader who listens and isn't afraid of voters, having held 108 listening sessions in my 9 years as senator." Blue America has a special page for all the best County Executive candidates in the U.S. Please consider clicking on the 2020 campaign thermometer on the right and contributing what you can to Chris Larson's campaign.

Best E-Mail Of The Day: Wisconsin State Senator Chris Larson

In today's e-mail, Wisconsin's most progressive legislator sent to his supporters, he got right to the point-- a possible campaign for Milwaukee County Executive, a job that has often lead to the governorship. He and I have been talking about this for a while and this morning he told me about why he's considering the jump. "After 20 years of leadership disinterested in the opinions of average neighbors, there is a genuine opportunity to lead Milwaukee county forward by asking what they think and what they'd like to see out of their county. What does it look like to them for their neighborhood to succeed? How do we get out of the rut of just reacting to circumstances beyond our control and instead start setting aspirational goals and then figuring out how to get there? I'm asking my neighbors and I'm genuinely interested in their response." Good attitude and I hope he decides to run.

Friends,

The open County Executive seat in this coming April’s election has led to great conversation about what the future of our county will look like.

After our run for County Executive 4 years ago, many neighbors and friends have reached out to encourage me to run again.

I have spent the last few weeks in hundreds of conversations with neighbors like you about what you’d like to see in Milwaukee County’s future and what the new County Executive should prioritize.

 If I run, it won’t be about just winning the election - it will be about building a county-wide coalition for our shared community’s future. Where do we want to go these next 4 years and beyond?

I’d like to know what you think.

In 2016, I ran for County Executive because I believed we needed to restore power to the people. Together, we ran a strong grassroots campaign and we shifted the conversation to focus on issues like poverty, improving behavioral health services, investing in Milwaukee's parks, and stopping the takeover of Milwaukee's public schools.

For years, we’ve seen coordination by the elite class seeking to dismantle the institutions that we cherish by wrestling control away from the public. From our parks to mental health to social services to transit and more, we now have an opportunity to restore, rebuild, and reassess where we want to go.

What are the biggest issues that need attention in Milwaukee County? What does a thriving Milwaukee County look like to you? What do you think it will take to get our County there?

In my time as a public servant, I’ve held over two hundred listening sessions because it’s important to hear what the public thinks and have a conversation among neighbors. I value your thoughts as I weigh a run for Milwaukee County Executive.

We have many challenges to face with our budget, but we also have an opportunity to shape our community for decades to come. Your input is incredibly important in how we should move forward. Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

In Service,

You can contribute the Chris Larson's campaign by clicking on the thermometer on the right. Yesterday the New York Times reminded readers the problem in one of the most gerrymandered states in the union: "The governor of Wisconsin called a special session last week to debate gun legislation. It resulted in exactly zero new laws, and it lasted less than a minute. Such is life these days in Wisconsin, a state that for much of the last decade was a laboratory for some of the nation’s most conservative policymaking and a hotbed of partisan fervor, but where pretty much everything has now slowed to a crawl. Acrimonious deadlocks have become the new normal in Wisconsin, one of three Midwestern states where Democrats ended full Republican control last year by flipping governorships… Yet with attention turning to the presidential election, in which Wisconsin voters are seen as playing a decisive role, divided power has given way to frustrated impasse, with little chance for either party to hold up state policymaking as the showcase it once was here."

Trump is massively underwater among Wisconsin voters. According to the most current Trump Tracker (Oct 19), his net approval has further collapsed to minus 17. Since being elected in 2016 Trump's approval has crashed from a positive 47-41% to the current 57% disapprove to 40% approve. His net approval has gone down 23 points. And yet the state legislative gerrymandered districts still give the GOP control of both Houses, 18-15 in the state Senate and an impossible and absurd 63-35 in the Assembly. Why ridiculous and impossible? In 2018 the Democrats running for the Assembly got 1,306,878 votes (53%), while the GOP candidates took 1,103,505 (45%), a 7.54% swing in favor of the Democrats. The voters spoke and the GOP still wound up with the absurd 63-36 majority.

Who Would Sir Isaac Newton Vote For?

Almost every time I watch a Bernie Sanders speech or video, like the one above, I think, oh, that could be part of his 2020 announcement. Well... we won't have to wait much longer. I don't think anyone will be surprised to know that Bernie is getting close to announcing. And Saturday, Politico reported that his announcement video has been recorded.

It is unclear when, or even whether, the Sanders video will be released. It’s possible that Sanders could launch a 2020 campaign with an exploratory committee and then formally declare his candidacy later, a route other presidential candidates, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren, have taken.

Sarah Ford, a spokeswoman for Sanders, did not respond to a request for comment about the video.

Tim Tagaris and Robin Curran, two 2016 alumni who helped power Sanders’ successful small-dollar fundraising program, have agreed to join any second presidential campaign.

The Sanders team has also been in talks with Means of Production, the filmmaking company that created Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s viral campaign video during the midterm election, about a major 2020 role.

Meanwhile, the group founded by Sanders has been readying its members in case he runs. Our Revolution revealed its plans this weekend for the second phase of its campaign to draft Sanders into the presidential race. In a fundraising email sent to supporters, Our Revolution political director David Duhalde asked for donations to help fund phone-banking, door-knocking, volunteer trainings, and other outreach strategies.

“We’re organizing every day so that if and when Bernie announces,” he said, “our members and our groups can hit the ground running.”

Chris has that right-- and by now you surely know what he'll fight for and who he'll fight for-- unlike the squad of would-be candidates running around like chickens without heads apologizing for their shitty records (particularly Biden, Gillibrand and Harris)-- and that he can be trusted, again, unlike the apologizers who did so much damage and want a second chance-- second chances are good... but as president??

Last night, Digby reminded her readers that "Democrats win when they embrace the future with optimism and energy. All the Democratic presidents of my lifetime won on that basis. From JFK to Carter to Clinton to Obama, it was always about aspiration for progress not a retreat to the past." That leaves out Biden-- "Mr. Return to Normalcy." In fact, an awful lot of candidates-- on all levels-- are running with the idea of just making things like they were before Trump. That won't work, The way things were before Trump is exactly what saddled us with Trump. Embracing the future with optimism and energy-- and a solid program-- is way more attractive,

Ro Khanna was a Bernie-endorser in 2016, when heavy pressure was being put on everyone to back Hillary, the inevitable next president. He and Bernie worked closely on the out-of-Yemen legislation and today Ro told me that "Bernie has a vision to transform our foreign policy to be based on human rights and restraint and our economic policy to focus on communities and workers left out. We need his leadership and voice at this time of record income disparity and polarization."

Randy Bryce was another Bernie supporter back in 2016. He's just as enthusiastic today as he was back then. "Sen. Sanders was one of the first electeds (federal level) to meet with me after we got into the race for Congress," he told me today. "Not only did he offer solid advice, but he made it to the district to help out more than just about anyone else. (4 events in 3 days) He’s the one who made us think about what we could have if we valued working people before it was popular. It’s great to see so many of the things we thought of as a fantasy to actually become mainstream and something many who have already announced are advocating. We need more who will put workers first. I look forward to welcoming anyone who is willing to walk a picket line."

Wisconsin state Senator Chris Larson was the guy who first introduced me to Randy Bryce, long before anyone outside the Wisconsin labor and veterans' movements had heard the word "IronStache." Chris gets why Bernie isn't just another run-of-the-mill politician. "In an age," he told me this morning, "where heroes are being shattered by resurgent histories and accusations of political mal-intent, Bernie may be one of the last politicians whom can be held up as someone who has been setting the tone for social justice, for our environment, and for economic equality for decades. Trump can only win a second term by maligning his opponents until enough doubt exists in enough of the electorate that they stay home. Bernie is one has shown he can handle that kind of heat and shift right back to what really matters in the world, all while keeping the people with him. We have a lot of great candidates outlining visions for the future of our country. Bernie, like Elizabeth Warren, is one who will never forget to fight for the little guy because it's all he's ever fought for."

I have this thing about having one great president in my lifetime. FDR was long gone before I came along and there hasn't been a truly great president since. Some OK ones, mostly mediocre ones, some really, really bad ones-- and, of course this illegitimate thing in the White House. I think Newton's Third Law (of physics) applies well to human and societal interaction. "For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction," he wrote. That would mean that after Trump, America is due for its greatest president ever. Combining the thoughts of Isaac Newton, Digby and Chris Hayes... I see two possibilities: Elizabeth Warren or Bernie. Put in a dash of Ro Khanna, Chris Larson and Randy Bryce, and it's easy enough how to figure out who to vote for. The DownWithTyranny ActBlue thermometer on the right, as a matter of fact... well, if you agree with me, please consider a $20.20 contribution to someone who's going to be as great as Trump is insignificant and unfit. And to the candidates who will support his programs in Congress.

Eva Putzova is the progressive Democrat running in Arizona's massive 1st congressional district. The incumbent is Tom O'Halleran, an "ex"-Republican who calls himself a Blue Dog Democrat but tends to vote with the GOP on crucial issues. Eva, an activist and former member of the Flagstaff City Council is thrilled about Bernie's 2020 run. "In late March of 2016 at one of his campaign stops," she told me, "then presidential candidate Bernie Sanders announced the launch of Flagstaff's citizen initiative that successfully raised the local minimum wage to $15 and got rid of the exploitative tipped wage that keeps too many women, people of color, and immigrants living in poverty. That symbolic gesture inspired many to join our efforts against inequality at the local level. Senator Sanders's candidacy in the 2020 presidential cycle will inspire a broad-based grassroots action, energize young voters, and activate courage that we need to combat climate change and build a resilient economy that works for everybody. The political discourse we will see in the coming months will be much more constructive and focused because of his presence in the Democratic Party primaries."

Eva and Bernie in Flagstaff

Like Eva, Mike Siegel, a progressive congressional candidate in central Texas, admires Bernie and what he stands for, especially his "deep and longstanding  commitment to addressing the root causes of inequality and injustice in the United States. We need courageous leadership in this moment, when our democratic institutions are under attack and when the economic system is increasingly rigged to favor the 1%. Here in Texas, Bernie’s 2016 campaign inspired the creation of dozens of enduring grassroots organizations that continue to fight for structural, progressive change at the local, state and national levels. I am hopeful that his 2020 campaign will provide another boost to movements for social justice here and across the nation."

As for "centrists"... there's nothing there. Nor should there be sat this point. What's the centrist policy on Climate Change? Well save Florida. But only starting with Orlando; everything south of Orlando... move-- fast. Historically, "the centrists" are the people who may agree that something is wrong and needs fixing but the solutions are way too hard, impossible, impractical. Let's try a bandaid and see if that works. Had centrists been in charge guess what would be missing from American history. Medicare and Medicaid, Social Security, minimum wages, public education, women's suffrage, emancipation of the slaves, the Bill of Rights (Amendments 1-10)... in fact, there would be no American history because we'd still be a British colony!

Last July, Sarah Jones penned an essay for the New Republic, There Is No Silent Centrist Majority, her point being that "the base of the Democratic Party is much further to the left than moderates recognize." The Democratic establishment aggressively promotes conservative Democrats, who are referred to as "centrists" and "moderates," and they all sit around talking to each other are persuading themselves that the grassroots of the party is someone as white, old, rich and clueless as they are. They think everyone is like Cheri Bustos, an Illinois Blue Dog who was trained by Rahm Emanuel to be just like him. Pelosi just picked her to be the chair of the DCCC. She picked all right-of-center Democrats to run it and the recruitment committee, particularly, looks like it was chosen to fail. The co-chairs are Pete Aguilar (this coke freak), Val Demings and Don McEachin. All New Dems. Who do you think they're going to recruit?

Jones quoted Bustos for her essay: "If you look throughout the heartland, there’s a silent majority who just wants normalcy, just wants to see that people are going to go out to Washington and fight for them in a civil way and get something done. There’s a lot of people that just don’t really like protests and don’t like yelling and screaming." They would have been the third of the country who refused to take sides in the War of Independence. "Party leaders might be centrist, but the base is not," wrote Jones.

In 2016, Democratic voters nearly rejected centrism outright, as the primary campaign of Senator Bernie Sanders proved more popular than expected. Nudged partly by Sanders, Hillary Clinton’s platform in 2016 veered further left than her platform eight years earlier. But on paper, her candidacy represented everything that Third Way Democrats seem to want. She had extensive political experience and a strong donor base. Her policies were detailed. She largely rejected Sanders’s platform, articulated a clear, incremental policy vision, and professed a belief in American greatness at the same time. And then she lost.

Today, it’s clear that Sanders is not the outlier he used to be. Many Democrats now agree with at least a few of his marquee policies, like Medicare for All and a higher minimum wage. But some Democrats, notably those at Opportunity 2020 last week, still insist that the politically smart path is a message of civility and capitalist reform, not outrage and economic redistribution. “The party is not going to go in the direction of Sanders-style socialism, because it’s not winning on the issues and it doesn’t win politically except in a very, very limited number of places,” Third Way President Jonathan Cowan told Time. “It’s going to go in the direction that won it two presidencies-- the last two, two-term Democratic presidents were mainstream Democrats-- and what is going to get the House back.”

As reported by Buzzfeed, “Third Way’s own polling indicates that ‘46% of voters said the government’s focus should be on ‘policies that spread opportunity to more people and places,’ compared to 25% who said ‘policies that address income inequality.’” If centrists think that result proves that there’s popular support for moderate politics, they’re likely mistaken; it’s not clear how “policies that spread opportunity” differ from “policies that address income inequality” in a meaningful sense, especially to voters. In reality, a number of policies once relegated to the leftist fringe have suddenly gained widespread approval among Democrats, and centrist policies don’t seem to enjoy nearly the same levels of popularity.

In fact, national polling suggests that there is public support for an institutional move to the left. Polls consistently show that two-thirds to three-quarters of Americans support raising taxes on the rich. Nearly half of Americans support a federal jobs guarantee, according to a Rasmussen poll in May. And a Kaiser Family Foundation poll in March found that 59 percent of Americans support Medicare for All; around 75 percent support the public option, which would have been part of the Affordable Care Act if it weren’t for moderates like then–Senator Joe Lieberman. Among Democrats specifically, support for these and other policies is even higher.

...The argument that Third Way centrism is more viable than Sanders’s platform rests largely on one premise: that some silent majority of voters prefer moderate politics. This is why moderates are pinning their hopes on Joe Biden as a possible 2020 presidential candidate. The former senator and vice president “has near-universal name identification, a personality and biography that makes him attractive to some 2016 Trump voters, and an issues profile that won’t drive progressives off the ledge,” New York’s Ed Kilgore notes.

Herb Jones, endorsed by Blue America, is running for the Virginia state Senate seat held by the racist Majority Leader. This afternoon, he told me why he's a Bernie-supporter. "I love Bernie. I love Bernie because he is genuine in what he says and does. He is the essence of America. Bernie will fight for Medicare for All, progressive, marginal tax rates, regulated adult use of cannabis, and other common sense policies..."