Obama And Egypt

The month I spent in Egypt was wonderful-- but it doesn't make me an Egypt expert like all the imbecile babbling away this week on cable TV. I don't speak Arabic; I wasn't tuning into the Arab street. I was on a boat floating in a leisurely fashion up the Nile visiting ancient sites like the crocodile god's Temple of Kom Ombo in what was once the ancient city of Nubt. Not a whisper of Nubt, Kom Ombo, Sobek or even the falcon god Horus (who shared the temple with Sobek, the crocodile god) or Ptolemy VI, who started building the temple, or Jacques de Morgan who cleaned and restored it in 1893. Actually, a Canadian oil explorer, Sea Dragon Energy, whose stock price has tumbled precipitously, reported that they're having trouble getting supplies to their operation in Kom Ombo but that production is humming along uninterrupted.

"Street demonstrations are restricted to major cities and therefore have little or no impact on the company's field operations in Kom Ombo and NW Gemsa," the company, whose activities are concentrated in Egypt, said in a statement.

Sea Dragon said it is experiencing some shortages in supplies in Kom Ombo because of the remoteness of the area, and that drilling and service rigs have temporarily been placed on stand-by until regular transportation of goods and services resumes.

We were lucky in our trip in 1997. Egypt had emptied out of tourists because of a massacre at the temple of Hatshepsut, the female pharaoh, at Deir el-Bahri across the Nile from Luxor the day before we arrived. 62 people were massacred, mostly tourists from Switzerland and Japan, and everyone in Egypt's hotels just packed up and went home. There were basically no tourists in the country; we had it all to ourselves. You know the guy who always see on TV whenever they talk about pyramids or mummies or excavations-- Dr. Zahi Hawass? He took us for a tour of the Pyramids that he said was the kind of trip usually reserved for heads of state like Charles DeGaulle (Americans heads of state being too busy for the tour).

Anyway, I'm no expert on Egyptian politics. I think I follow it more than most Americans without Egyptian heritage or who don't work for the State Department. But not enough to pump myself up as some kind of an expert the way all these clowns on CNN are doing. Friday we tried putting the Muslim Brotherhood into a little historical context with an article by a real expert, John Loftus. And a week before that I pointed out that Egyptians Hakin and Cleopatra do a really spectacular cover version of the Bangles' "Walk Like An Egyptian."

One thing I do know, though, is that... I don't really know squat about what's actually going on there, especially behind the scenes. Neither do the talking heads on cable, especially not the ideologically-motivated sociopaths at Fox. Although I tried to make it clear that so-called VP Omar Suleiman (who "someone" seems to have maybe/maybe not already tried to assassinate) is Russia's man on the scene and that America's guy is Field Marshall Tantawi, head of the military, here's a passage from what Loftus sent me that I didn't use-- explaining who China seems to be betting on:

For nearly two decades, the PLA [China's People's Liberation Army] leadership had been selling components of the atomic bomb to Arab leaders’ in return for influence and oil. Chinese nuclear weapon technology had been delivered to North Korea, Libya, and Pakistan. The entrepreneurial Pakistanis re-sold the Chinese nuclear secrets to Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia and, of course, Egypt. China’s contact in the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency had played a vital role in squelching any mention of the PLA’s role in nuclear proliferation. With his help, the Chinese had managed to keep their secret, secret. It was time to repay the favor.

The elegantly dressed Egyptian switched off his encrypted email and frowned in thought for a moment as he stared out the window at the falling snow. Life was comfortable here among the wealth Swiss. The risks of returning to Egypt were enormous. Too soon, and he might spend his life in a prison cell. Too late and he would miss his date with history. Ego triumphed over discretion. He turned to his secretary and ordered “Book me on the next flight to Cairo.” With that command, the die was cast and the war for Pharaoh’s succession began in earnest.

The secretary in Switzerland used a computer to make an online reservation for the Cairo flight. It was a common mistake. All over the world, electronic robots wait to vacuum up every signal coming down the wires. The passenger’s first name, Mohammed, was so ubiquitous in the Arab world as to be almost untraceable. His last name, ElBaradei, was still fairly common, and even the data from the office credit card
was ignored by the targeting computers, but just for the first few seconds. As soon as the secretary keyed in the passenger’s frequent flyer number, the unique digital sequence was intercepted.

Before the electronic request had even been processed by the airline booking computer,
intelligence computers of several nations had matched the passenger’s frequent flyer number to the target list, and automatically red flagged his airline ticket for immediate attention. The advent of supercomputers enabled intelligence services to vacuum the world for electronic patterns. Every day, every email you send, every telephone call you make, every fax, every online transaction is recorded. Collecting billions of bytes of data is easy. Targeting is hard.

...In Washington, the response to the flight booking was predictable; a snort of disgust, a sigh of regret, and then grudging acceptance of a duty to an old ally. “We probably should let Mubarak know before he arrives.”

Mohammed ElBaradei was flying back home to join the Egyptian revolution, if not as its leader, then to establish himself in the Egyptian press as the best alternative to President Mubarak’s thirty year old dictatorship. The conventional wisdom in Washington was that ElBaradei would do anything for Egypt, as long as he did not actually have to live there. The fact that he was coming home probably meant that
ElBaradei believed that the rioting in the streets was more than just a temporary phenomenon; it was the harbinger of a Tunisian-style instant revolution.

In the Moscow, the news of ElBaradei’s return was handled differently. “We had better tell our man to get ready. We may have to plan for an accelerated takeover.”

Like China, Russian intelligence believed that President Mubarak’s days were numbered...

Thrilling, isn't it? Loftus writes a column, SPYGLASS, for Ami Magazine. This one, on the stands now, is called "Who Will Be The Next Pharaoh?" It helped inform me, of course; but it also made me certain that I can't put myself in Obama's shoes. He's getting shit from all sides-- from the hard realities of soaring worldwide food prices to an understandably freaked out Israel and other panicky U.S. allies in the region-- and this isn't like a bunch of Glenn Beck's racist zombies marching around yelling about his birth certificate. This is the real thing with a lot of moving parts on a lot of levels. I wish him the best. And I wish the spite, bigotry and hatefulness of the "loyal opposition" would, for once, put America first, even over their personal ambitions and social psychosis.

It's also worth reading George Soros' OpEd in Friday's Washington Post. He's not a hippie and he's more aware than most of us of what realpolitik actually means and that there are times when liberation trumps dysfunctional and crumbling strategic relationships.

Revolutions usually start with enthusiasm and end in tears. In the case of the Middle East, the tears could be avoided if President Obama stands firmly by the values that got him elected. Although American power and influence in the world have declined, our allies and their armies look to us for direction. These armies are strong enough to maintain law and order as long as they stay out of politics; thus the revolutions can remain peaceful. That is what the United States should insist on while encouraging corrupt and repressive rulers who are no longer tolerated by their people to step aside and allow new leaders to be elected in free and fair elections.

That is the course that the revolution in Tunisia is taking. Tunisia has a relatively well-developed middle class, women there enjoy greater rights and opportunities than in most Muslim countries, and the failed regime was secular in character. The prospects for democratic change are favorable.

Egypt is more complex and, ultimately, more influential, which is why it is so important to get it right. The protesters are very diverse, including highly educated and common people, young and old, well-to-do and desperately poor. While the slogans and crowds in Tahrir Square are not advancing a theocratic agenda at all, the best-organized political opposition that managed to survive in that country's repressive environment is the Muslim Brotherhood. In free elections, the Brotherhood is bound to emerge as a major political force, though it is far from assured of a majority.

Some have articulated fears of adverse consequences of free elections, suggesting that the Egyptian military may seek to falsify the results; that Israel may be adamantly opposed to a regime change; that the domino effect of extremist politics spreading to other countries must be avoided; and that the supply of oil from the region could be disrupted. These notions constitute the old conventional wisdom about the Middle East - and need to be changed, lest Washington incorrectly put up resistance to or hesitate in supporting transition in Egypt.

That would be regrettable. President Obama personally and the United States as a country have much to gain by moving out in front and siding with the public demand for dignity and democracy. This would help rebuild America's leadership and remove a lingering structural weakness in our alliances that comes from being associated with unpopular and repressive regimes. Most important, doing so would open the way to peaceful progress in the region. The Muslim Brotherhood's cooperation with Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel laureate who is seeking to run for president, is a hopeful sign that it intends to play a constructive role in a democratic political system. As regards contagion, it is more likely to endanger the enemies of the United States-- Syria and Iran-- than our allies, provided that they are willing to move out ahead of the avalanche.

The main stumbling block is Israel. In reality, Israel has as much to gain from the spread of democracy in the Middle East as the United States has. But Israel is unlikely to recognize its own best interests because the change is too sudden and carries too many risks. And some U.S. supporters of Israel are more rigid and ideological than Israelis themselves. Fortunately, Obama is not beholden to the religious right, which has carried on a veritable vendetta against him. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is no longer monolithic or the sole representative of the Jewish community. The main danger is that the Obama administration will not adjust its policies quickly enough to the suddenly changed reality.

I am, as a general rule, wary of revolutions. But in the case of Egypt, I see a good chance of success. As a committed advocate of democracy and open society, I cannot help but share in the enthusiasm that is sweeping across the Middle East. I hope President Obama will expeditiously support the people of Egypt. My foundations are prepared to contribute what they can. In practice, that means establishing resource centers for supporting the rule of law, constitutional reform, fighting corruption and strengthening democratic institutions in those countries that request help in establishing them, while staying out of those countries where such efforts are not welcome.