The Pandemic In The Developing Countries-- Young People Are Dying

Russia is battling it out with Brazil for the number 2 spot behind Trumpland for the most cases of COVID-19. Right now Brazil has taken the lead. Though the U.S. seems untouchable in the realm of caseloads-- blowing through the 1,700,000 make yesterday (with 19,790 new cases Sunday), Brazil has been steadily pulling away from Russia over the past few days. On Monday, Russia reported 353,427 confirmed cases with 8,946 new cases, while Brazil reported 376,669 total confirmed cases and 13,051 new ones. Both are way past the old frontline countries like Spain (482 new cases), Italy (300 new cases), France (358 new cases), Germany (461 new cases) and Belgium (250 new cases). Only the U.K. is showing big new numbers (2,405). The real competition will be with India (7,113 new cases), Peru (4,205 new cases), Chile (4,895 new cases), Mexico (3,329 new cases) Pakistan (2,164 new cases)... The pandemic is spreading in le tiers monde-- and that's going to be really horrific... and not containable.

Washington Post reporters in Brazil, Terrence McCoy and Heloísa Traiano, wrote about the pandemic there Sunday. It really sounds pretty horrible. First of all, they wrote that "the narrative seared into the global consciousness in the early months of the pandemic-- that the virus spared the young and ravaged the elderly-- was not what she was watching unfold in Brazil. Younger people were being infected in Brazil and dying. "As the coronavirus escalates its assault on the developing world, the victim profile is beginning to change. The young are dying of covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, at rates unseen in wealthier countries-- a development that further illustrates the unpredictable nature of the disease as it pushes into new cultural and geographic landscapes."

McCoy was part of a reporting team back in early April looking at the devastation starting to be wrought in third world countries. This is from nearly two months ago; it's much worse now:

Peru tried to do everything right. Officials declared an early national lockdown-- and backed it up with 16,000 arrests. Yet confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus are surging, up nearly 60 percent since last weekend.

In Egypt, observers say a repressive government is vastly undercounting the infected. In Brazil, where the president has dubbed Latin America’s largest outbreak a “fantasy,” numbers are skyrocketing.

...[E]pidemiologists and other public health experts say the coronavirus is poised to spread dangerously south, engulfing developing nations already plagued by fraying health-care systems, fragile governments, and impoverished populations in which social distancing can be practically impossible.

They warned of an amplified global crisis in the coming weeks, one striking nations that can least handle it at a time when wealthy countries are likely to be too preoccupied with outbreaks of their own to offer the kind of assistance they’ve extended during episodes of disease that were confined to the developing world. Add the extreme population density and poor sanitary conditions in vast urban slums, and experts warn that the pain of the pandemic is about to tilt quickly from richer nations to poorer ones.

“In three to six weeks, Europe and America will continue in the throes of this-- but there is no doubt the center will move to places like Mumbai, Rio de Janeiro and Monrovia,” said Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. “We need to be very worried.”

India, one of the first nations in the world to impose social distancing rules, has reported 1,397 cases of covid-19. Analysts say the health system would not be equipped to deal with larger numbers. The country has 0.5 hospital beds for every 1,000 people, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The United States has 2.8. South Korea has 12.3.

Experts say there’s no official count of intensive-care beds or ventilators. Mumbai anesthesiologist Atul Kulkarni, editor of the Indian Journal of Critical Care Medicine, has estimated there are about 67,000 intensive-care beds in the country of 1.3 billion. State-level resources offer a grimmer picture: One study found that Madhya Pradesh, home to more than 70 million people, had just 1,816 intensive-care beds.

A spike in infections would quickly overwhelm those resources. In a worst-case scenario, a group of epidemiologists and biostatisticians predicted, India could have 915,000 infections by May 15. To prepare, India has banned the export of goods that could be crucial in the fight against the coronavirus, including ventilators, surgical masks and the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine, now being studied as a possible treatment for covid-19-- a decision that could complicate the ability of other developing nations to obtain such items.

Today, much of the fastest growth of the virus is in the developing world. These were the new cases since Saturday reported Sunday:

• Brazil- 16,220
• India- 7,113
• Peru- 4,205
• Chile- 3,709
• Mexico- 3,329
• Saudi Arabia- 2,399
• Pakistan- 2,164
• Bangladesh- 1,532
• Qatar- 1,501
• South Africa- 1,240
• Colombia- 998
• Egypt- 752
• Argentina- 723
• Afghanistan- 584
• Oman- 513
• Cameroon- 490

Egypt is starting to relax restrictions-- while reporting (Sunday) a new single-day record of 29 COVID-19 deaths, raising the death toll to 764 in the country-- as well as 752 new cases, bringing the total number of infections to 17,265. The nationwide curfew is being reduced from 13 hours to 10 hours as the government considers gradually reducing restrictions.





"In Brazil," reported McCoy and Traiano, "15 percent of deaths have been people under 50-- a rate more than 10 times greater than in Italy or Spain. In Mexico, the trend is even more stark: Nearly one-fourth of the dead have been between 25 and 49. In India, officials reported this month that nearly half of the dead were younger than 60. In Rio de Janeiro state, more than two-thirds of hospitalizations are for people younger than 49... Analysts say the emerging data suggests many of the problems that have long troubled the developing world-- intractable poverty, extreme inequality, fragile health systems-- are increasing vulnerability to the disease. In countries with more poverty and fewer resources, people who might have survived elsewhere are instead dying."

George Gray Molina, chief economist for the United Nations Development Program, said poverty is triggering “compounding effects.” Because population density is so much higher in much of the developing world-- and because so many people must keep working to survive-- a far greater share of the population ends up being exposed to the virus.

The virus then spreads through a population that’s less resilient. People in the developing world grapple not only with the diseases that have long been associated with it-- malaria, dengue, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS-- but increasingly with those more closely associated with wealthier countries. Rates of diabetes, obesity and hypertension are surging. But treatment for many such illnesses is lacking.

When newly infected coronavirus patients already weakened by preexisting conditions seek treatment, they find hospital systems that are overwhelmed and unequipped to handle the deluge of patients.

“It all points to social economic status and poverty,” Gray Molina said. The positive benefits associated with the developing world, such as younger populations, are being “wiped out.”

“As this plays out,” he said, “we will see a balancing of the scales.”

When the coronavirus hit Brazil, it was an infection of the rich. Brought in by travelers to the United States and Europe, the coronavirus circulated primarily among the wealthy and connected. The Brazilian senate leader caught it. So did President Jair Bolsonaro’s press secretary. The Rio de Janeiro Country Club along Ipanema beach, one of Brazil’s most exclusive clubs, suffered a devastating outbreak.

Domingos Alves, a data scientist with the University of São Paulo, has been tracking the virus here since those early weeks. The pattern in Brazil at first mirrored that in the developed world: The dead were almost exclusively elderly. Coronavirus patients were flocking to private hospitals, and anyone who needed a hospital bed received one.

But by early April, as the virus began seeping into the favelas and slums of São Paulo and Rio, and the public hospital system started buckling, Alves noticed a sharp shift in the data. Younger people were being hospitalized at higher rates. People younger than 49 were dying. The disease was reaching lower into the demographic pyramid. The victim profile was changing.

...Bolsonaro, a global leader in minimizing the virus, repeats a mantra: Only the elderly are at risk. So the best policy is to isolate only them. He has called it “vertical isolation.”

“What has happened in the world has shown that the people at risk are older than 60,” he declared in a national address in late March. “So why close the schools?”

The contradictory messaging in Brazil-- between local leaders begging people to stay inside and a president calling people to return to the streets-- has fueled widespread confusion. As the virus explodes here, cresting 300,000 cases and 19,000 dead, people are increasingly ignoring isolation guidelines. The beach boardwalks in Rio de Janeiro are packed on weekends. The typical infected person infects nearly three others, according to researchers at Imperial College London, one of the world’s highest rates.

Pedro Archer, a physician at a public hospital in Rio, said his young patients have been stunned by their illness. Some had parroted Bolsonaro, who has repeatedly belittled the illness as a “gripezinha”-- a little flu. Until they got sick.

“I have people say to me, ‘I really had thought this was only a gripezinha, and now I see this is serious,’ ” Archer said. “I’ve seen people dying who have said the same thing.”

Others keep going out because they must. Government aid-- around $105 per month for informal workers-- has for many been either blocked by bureaucratic hurdles or woefully insufficient. Buses are still filled with people heading to work. Lines of people waiting for emergency funds have snaked around banks.

“Young people are dying at a higher rate because they are coming into contact with the virus many times more, because of their working and living conditions,” said Ligia Bahia, a public health professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. “Doormen are still working. Housekeepers are still working... Their viral load, their exposure, is greater.”

Sunday night, Trumpanzee kicked his fellow fascist Bolsonsaro where it hurts... when he was done. No one from Brazil, or even having visited Brazil in the last two weeks, can enter to the U.S. Expect other countries to start using that standard against Americans as Trumpland is seen to have become the fount of contagion for the whole world.

If the U.S. has the most fucked up people in the world-- in terms of classic idiocy-- the U.K. is close behind. Although their pandemic is worsening, they've picked an arbitrary date to reopen-- June 15. The World Heath Organization warned yesterday that "countries where coronavirus infections are declining could still face an 'immediate second peak' if they let up too soon on measures to halt the outbreak, the World Health Organization said on Monday. They recommended that the U.S., Canada and the EU counties should "continue to put in place the public health and social measures, the surveillance measures, the testing measures and a comprehensive strategy to ensure that we continue on a downwards trajectory and we don’t have an immediate second peak." Good luck with that!

If You Want To Take A Trip During The Pandemic, Try Acid Or Peyote

You know I have a travel blog too, right? In early February-- recently back from Thailand and having just canceled a summer trip to the Dordogne region of France-- I wrote a coronavirus travel post, much of it a warning about air travel. Hard to believe only month and a half has passed.

Now we find ourselves in a situation with airlines cancelling flights and governments closing borders and enforcing quarantines. Thousands of Americans are stranded overseas-- Senate Intel chair Richard Burr (R-NC) warned campaign donors but not the public of what was coming-- and the State Department has ruled out rescue flights. Basically, they have no option but to wait, probably for months before they can get home.

On Thursday, the State Department a global Level 4 travel advisory. That's as dire as it gets; there is no Level 5. The State Department is basically telling all Americans not to travel abroad at all and telling Americans who are abroad to either come home immediately-- mostly impossible-- or to "shelter in place." No new passports are being issued other than to people with "life or death emergencies." These are the latest dozen tweets from the Department's travel section-- all from Thursday morning:

• Due to #COVID19 related public health measures, effective March 20, passport agencies will only accept applications from customers with life-or-death emergencies who plan to travel within 72 hours. Some passport acceptance facilities may also suspend services. Due to #COVID19 related operational changes, we will not offer expedited passport service on or after March 20 and routine processing (normally 6-8 weeks) may be delayed. More information
• #Mauritius: Mauritius has barred admission to all travelers, including nationals, as of Mar. 19, GMT. U.S. citizens considering returning to the US are urged to work with their airlines to make travel arrangements while flights are still available. more
• #SouthAfrica: On March 18, South Africa barred admission to travelers who have recently visited the United States, Italy, Iran, South Korea, Spain, Germany, the United Kingdom, and China. All US citizen visitors must have visas prior to arrival to enter. more
• #Croatia: All travelers barred from admission except Croatian citizens returning home, foreign citizens departing to their home countries, diplomats, law enforcement, medical workers, controlled shipments of goods, and others on a case by case basis. more
• #Angola: The Government of Angola announced that all international flights will be cancelled effective March 20. US citizens who are considering returning to the US are urged to work with airlines to make arrangements while flights are still available. more
• #Bulgaria: The Bulgarian government has banned the entry of third-country (non-EU) nationals, including U.S. citizens, into the country from March 20 to April 17. This includes all border crossing points and aviation, maritime, rail, and road. more
• #Laos: The Government of Laos announced the suspension of the issuance of visas on arrival, visas at Lao Diplomatic Missions, and eVisas, as well as visa exemption programs. These restrictions are scheduled to be in place for 30 days starting March 20. more
• #Bermuda: Effective March 20, at 11:59pm, L.F. Wade Airport will close for incoming passenger flights for 2 weeks. Only returning residents will be allowed on flights arriving March 19 & 20. If departing, work with airlines while flights still available. more
• #PapuaNewGuinea: Any traveler who has been to or transited through the United States, or any other restricted place, in the 14 days prior to their intended arrival will not be permitted to enter the country. Other restricted places listed here: more
• #Bermuda: Several airlines have reduced or suspended flight services between Bermuda and the US. US citizens who are considering returning to the United States are urged to work with their airlines to make travel arrangements while flights are available. more
• #Colombia: The Mayor of Bogota announced a drill from March 20-23 during which all people are ordered to stay off the streets or else face possible fines. Additionally, airlines have begun curtailing or ceasing operations in Colombia. more
• #Madagascar: All international flights will be cancelled effective March 20, 2020. The Government of Madagascar has also announced cruise ships may not stop in Madagascar. more

This was from the day before:

#Ethiopia: Rise in anti-foreigner sentiment revolving around the announcement of COVID-19 in Ethiopia. Reports indicate that foreigners have been attacked with stones, denied transportation services, spat on, chased on foot, and accused of being infected. more

As I mentioned Wednesday, Thailand is a heavily tourism-dependent country. Yesterday, the Associated Press reported that "Thailand's government is imposing stricter rules on international travel that require people arriving from all countries to have health certificates stating they do not have the coronavirus, along with medical insurance covering the disease. The measures fall short of the total bans on international flights many countries have enacted, but are expected to sharply cut the number of visitors. Thailand has been reluctant to endanger its large tourism industry, which accounts for about 12% of its economy, according to official figures."

The decision comes just two days after the government announced that medical certificates and insurance would be required only for people arriving from “disease infected zones”-- South Korea, China, Macao, Hong Kong, Italy and Iran-- or who had visited "ongoing local transmission areas"-- the United States, parts of Japan, Britain and eight other European countries.

The health certificates now required for all arrivals must be issued within 72 hours of departure, and the insurance must cover $100,000 in medical costs.

Thai citizens also need to have health certificates but not insurance policies. In addition they will have to self-quarantine for 14 days. Quarantine rules for arriving foreigners remain unclear.

"Today we are trying to block those who bring the disease into Thailand, so that's why I tell you that everyone who is about to enter Thailand should have a health certificate," Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said. "That is an extension from four countries and two territories, but today we need it from every country as we attempt to control the outbreak in the country and lower the number of infected people as much as we can.

" Thailand on Thursday reported 60 new confirmed cases of the virus, bringing its total to 272. It has registered one death and discharged 42 recovered patients.

On Tuesday the government announced a raft of measures to combat the virus, including postponing a major holiday and shutting down schools nationwide. Provincial governors have been empowered to close venues where people gather, including massage parlors, entertainment places, gyms and sports venues. The popular tourist destination of Phuket on Thursday joined Bangkok and other provinces in applying such restrictions.

Postponing the annual public holiday of Songkran is meant to discourage the gathering and movement of large numbers of people. Millions of Thais normally travel from the big cities where they work to their hometowns during the three-day holiday to celebrate the traditional New Year. It will be rescheduled later this year.

Egypt is also heavily dependent on tourism (3rd biggest source of income)-- or at least they were until the industry evaporated entirely. The airports are shut down and the tourism minister announced he expects to lose a billion dollars a month for as long as there is an emergency situation.

On Wednesday, Forbes' travel write Christopher Elliott tried to look into the future of travel post-coronavirus but starts off with the absurd assumption that things may be headed back to normal in May. And he isn't the only one living in a fantasy world of everything getting back to normal.

Bill Patton wants to know what travel will be like after coronavirus. He and his family of 10 are headed to Antibes, France, in late May to celebrate their 50th anniversary. They've tried to cancel because of the coronavirus, but so far neither their airline or their vacation rental company will offer a refund.

"Our doctor advises we do not travel under the coronavirus conditions," says Patton, who is 76 and has a history of diabetes, allergies and asthma.

So what will France be like in May? What will travel be like after the coronavirus peaks? Will anyone be traveling at all?

A new survey suggests travel is alive and well. More than half of Americans (58%) are planning to travel between May and September 2020, as long as their destinations aren't in quarantine. But they're being careful. A quarter of participants will try to avoid big cities and public transportation, and 21% will choose domestic travel, according to the survey conducted by LuggageHero.

"Demand will come back stronger than ever once the situation is over," says Jannik Lawaetz, LuggageHero's CEO.

Here's how people will travel after the coronavirus:

1- They'll stay in the country. International travel will fall out of favor as people stay closer to the safety of home.

2- They won't travel far from home. "Staycations" and road trips will be favored over flying or cruising.

3- They'll make it quick. A softer economy will mean the traditional two-week summer vacation could turn into a long weekend. 

What will my destination be like this spring?

I know what Southern France is like now because I'm there.

I detoured to Nice, France, on my way to Italy and found an apartment on Vrbo to wait out the virus. It was a little scary at first. All the cafés and restaurants closed. There are police checkpoints in the streets.

But there's also a sense of normalcy and perspective that seems to be lacking in the United States. After all, France has survived its fair share of pandemics and world wars. People here are taking this crisis in stride and are confident it will be over soon-- certainly by the time Patton and his family arrive here.

The borders to Europe are closed for the next 30 days in an effort to contain the coronavirus. After that, things will probably return to normal quickly. By May, Patton and his family might really need that vacation in southern France.

For anyone else with spring travel plans, experts say the outlook is pretty decent. If the borders open up, your destination will happily welcome you.

But that's a big "if."

Will the travel industry come back from coronavirus?

Ask experts and they'll tell you that travel will come back quickly. Probably faster than anyone expects.

"Despite the challenges, it won’t be this way forever," says John Lovell, president of leisure travel and supplier relations and networks at Travel Leaders Group. "Travel and tourism is a highly resilient industry that has come back again and again from diseases and natural disasters."

Industry watchers like Lovell predict a quick bounce back for tourism, despite the current doom-and-gloom headlines. They point out that travel rebounded quickly after other pandemics and disasters, including 9/11.

"You have to assess your own risk tolerance, take reasonable and prudent precautions, and make smart decisions about your travel," he adds. "Right now, there are amazing travel deals to destinations all over the world."

What will travel be like after coronavirus?

Chances are, your destination will immediately begin an aggressive coronavirus recovery program the moment the "all clear" signal is given. That's the prediction of Wayne Smith, chairman of the Department of Hospitality and Tourism Management at the College of Charleston.

"Most destinations will institute a recovery strategy in which discounts may be a part of the overall enticement to return to travel," he says.

But don't look for deep discounts. Smith says the best strategies may not necessarily have cheaper prices but to offer more value.

"Examples I have seen in the past would be a hotel offering free meals with room purchase and maybe even packaging in attraction tickets," he says. "Instead of looking for the cheapest price, I would be looking for the best value. There are going to be plenty of high-value travel packages available."

Some parts of the travel industry might not survive

But it'll be a difficult, and maybe impossible, recovery for parts of the travel industry.

"It's going to be a long recovery," says Sophie Anderson, a marketing manager at Cruise Agency Australia, an Australian travel agency that specializes in cruises. "There are going to be collapses and bankruptcies when it's all over. At least one or two cruise lines might finally sink."

Anderson says for consumers there will be a silver lining-- cruises will be a bargain for the foreseeable future. Of course, if airlines, hotels and cruise lines start to go under, the lower prices will be irrelevant.

That's the most long-lasting-- and potentially disruptive-- effect on travel. Coronavirus will almost certainly claim several well-known travel brands, according to experts.

Yes, even with government bailouts. It's inevitable.

"History tells us that there will be fewer players in the wake of this event," says Paul Metselaar, chairman of Ovation Travel Group. "In the United Kingdom, we have already seen the demise of Flybe, and other carriers are at risk. It is entirely plausible that there will be other casualties in other segments as well.

Here are a few tips for traveling after the coronavirus outbreak

No question about it, people will travel after the coronavirus. But how?

Look for deals but focus on value. Assuming the coronavirus crisis is over, don't hesitate to book if you find a bargain for late spring or summer. But don't focus exclusively on price. Instead, look at the overall value of the deal. Are they throwing in attraction tickets or including meals?

Focus on longevity. Stay away from too-good-to-be-true offers from unknown operators. Chances are, these are fire sales from desperate companies on the verge of bankruptcy. Focus on well-known brands that are financially stable.

Consider travel insurance. A reputable insurance policy will protect you if an operator goes out of business. If you can't find a good policy, use a credit card to make your purchase. It can also offer protections from financial insolvency.

Bottom line: Travel will continue after the coronavirus outbreak. The industry will return sooner than you think, and with some great deals.

That swell bottom line ending indicates that Mr. Elliott, in all likelihood, takes free trips and hotel stays from the travel industry.

Chris Martenson didn't record his invaluable daily report today but his Peak Prosperity partner did a decent job on their home lockdown survival guide. So well worth watching:

Is Señor Trumpanzee Encouraging The Anti-LGBT Crackdown In Egypt?

Mashrou' Leila, a 5 piece alt-rock band from Beirut, is almost 10 years old. The sing about the some topics indie bands everywhere sing about-- like why stuff (like politics) sucks. But in their part of the world, those topics can mean trouble, especially now that they're hugely popular and draw gigantic crowds. Lead singer Hamed Sinno is openly gay-- which is dangerous in conservative Middle East societies. They were the first Middle East band ever featured on the cover of Rolling Stone but their controversial songs-- especially about tolerance of homosexuality-- have gotten them banned in Jordan. This is from their Facebook page:

We regret to inform you that the Mashrou’ Leila concert, which was supposed to take place on the 27th of June in Amman, has been cancelled following a decision by the Jordanian ministry of interior.

The decision was reminiscent of last year’s concert, when our performance was authorized, then banned, then the ban was lifted, all of which was surrounded by shameful coverage of Jordan in international press.

Again, after being invited to perform in Amman this year, and after the concert organizers obtained all the necessary licenses and permits, the Jordanian authorities have banned our performance.

We were genuinely under the impression that the Jordanian authorities were taking a clear stand with regards to freedom of expression, and the internationally sanctioned human rights pertaining to the LGBTIQ+ community, which the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and Jordan’s former Permanent Representative to the United Nations, HRH Prince Zeid Bin Ra’ad Al Hussein has been supporting.

The inconsistency of the Jordanian authorities in this respect (inviting us, then banning, then cancelling the ban, then inviting us again, then banning us again-- all within the course of 14 months-- has culminated in a clear message, that the Jordanian authorities do not intend to separate Jordan from the fanatical conservatism that has contributed in making the region increasingly toxic over the last decade.

We are terribly disheartened and sorry for our audience that this is happening again. We were extremely excited to return and play our music to our audience, friends and families who live in Jordan, and have been our foremost advocates since the band’s conception. We are sorry for being forced to exclude Jordan from our tour in the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas, which will still go on as planned.

Since all of this directly echoes the events of last year, we will reiterate our own statement from a year ago:

"An in-depth reading of the band’s stances and our songs reveals our interest in various social struggles, questioning the nature of freedom, and addressing various issues that we cannot ostrich ourselves from, be they oppression, censorship, gun control, sexual repression, the patriarchal oppression of both men and women, or the difficulty of just being, when being is in a society that constantly extinguishes our aspirations…..Saying that the band must be banned from playing in Jordan because our songs address themes of sexuality, homosexuality or support righteous democratic protests against social or political problems, is essentially saying that any artist addressing basic human rights through their work should be banned. This is a rather hostile approach towards human rights and democratic processes.”

Furthermore, pretending that these oppressive decisions are necessary under the guise of protecting “Jordanian customs and traditions” frames said traditions in a horribly regressive light. This is a misrepresentation of the people of Jordan, who we know are progressive supporters of human rights, and who respect intellectual and cultural pluralism.

Again, “one has only to look at the reaction of the Jordanian people to the cancellation, to see that the notion of a singular, homogeneous society that shares these “customs, and traditions,” does not seem to apply to Jordanian people, much as it cannot apply to anyone and anywhere else. Most importantly, the vile and absurdly fallacious smear campaign led by the Jordanian media and somehow supported by certain members of the Jordanian government, continues to go un-reprimanded, as though publishing defamatory imputations in the media to score some sort of petty “victory” against free speech, were not “at odds with Jordanian customs and traditions.”

On a more personal note, over the last 3 years of playing in Europe and the Americas, we have repeatedly leveraged our position in the public eye to be particularly vocal about defending the Arab and Islamic community in the face of US and European aggression, misrepresentation, and stereotyping.

It is disheartening to see a few members of that community trying to pit that very same community against us. We will not stop defending the Islamic community on account of this. Nor will we stop defending the LGBTIQ community on account of this. Nor will we change anything about how we go about making and performing our music. We are not afraid of the various death threats we’ve received over the last few days. We refuse to be ashamed of supporting our queer band-mate. We are proud of our work. We are proud of our audience, as always. If anything, today we are ashamed of the decisions of the Jordanian authorities.

And a few days ago they were in the NY Times, but not with a review. Field Marshal Abdel Fattah Saeed el-Sisi's fascist government is doing badly and Egyptians are growing restive. Scapegoating gays in the ultra-conservative society is an effective way to get people to stop thinking about el-Sisi's short-comings as a national leader. Tuesday the Times reported that Mashrou' Leila's Cairo concert led to an anti-LGBT crackdown in which at least 34 people have been arrested on suspicion of being gay and waving rainbow flags.

The crackdown has been fueled by social media, where images of the flag-waving were widely shared, and by dating apps and other websites, which the Egyptian police have used to entrap people suspected of being gay and transgender, activists and officials say.

Photographs and video of Ahmed Alaa, a 22-year-old law student, and others waving the flag at the concert by Mashrou’ Leila, a Lebanese band with an openly gay singer, stoked public outrage and vituperative news coverage that described the flag-waving as an assault on Egypt and its morals.

Ahmed Moussa, an influential talk show host, suggested last week that Mr. Alaa and the others had been funded by unidentified enemies who wanted to “disgrace” Egypt by making it appear to accept homosexuality.

“I am warning you against calling this a matter of personal freedom!” he told viewers. “This is about religions! This is about morals!”

In a telephone interview on Saturday, Mr. Alaa seemed unconcerned about the uproar. “Everything will be fine,” he said. “They just said that they arrested gays to calm down the public.”

The next day he was arrested and charged by national security prosecutors-- who usually investigate terrorism-- with membership in “an illegal group trying to promote homosexual ideas,” according to his lawyer, Ramadan Mohamed. His trial date has not been set.

The crackdown has primarily targeted gay men and transgender women, groups that the Egyptian state and mass media do not consider distinct from each other. Hundreds of them have been arrested since 2013 as part of a broad crackdown on social freedoms by the government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, which has killed hundreds of protesters and jailed thousands of political opponents.

The latest wave of arrests has drawn a stream of criticism from rights groups and condemnation from Mashrou’ Leila, which said in a statement on Tuesday that Egypt was “hellbent on executing the most atrocious of human rights violations.”

“What is happening now is unprecedented,” said Gasser Abed El Razek, executive director of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, which has been monitoring the crackdown and providing legal aid to defendants. “We think they are doing this to respond to the fuss that the Mashrou’ Leila concert created.”

At least one recent detainee has been convicted, according to state media, which did not identify the person. It said the detainee had been sentenced last week to six years in prison for “committing debauchery.”

Most of the 34 people arrested since the concert were ensnared through social media and dating apps, prosecutors said. Egyptian authorities have long used online entrapment to arrest gay people, including during a crackdown in 2001. Officers lure someone to a date, arrest them and then use the messages sent during their flirtation as evidence in court.

...Members of Mashrou’ Leila, who are currently artists in residence at New York University’s Hagop Kevorkian Center for Near Eastern Studies, said through a spokeswoman, Hind Azennar, that they were “heartbroken that the band’s work has been used to scapegoat yet another crackdown by the government.”

“We denounce the demonization and prosecution of victimless acts between consenting adults,” the band said. “It is sickening to think that all this hysteria has been generated over a couple of kids raising a piece of cloth that stands for love.”

The band also called for the creation of an “internationalist solidarity movement” to pressure Mr. Sisi’s government “to immediately halt its ongoing witch hunt and release all detainees.”

The persecution of gay and transgender people began in earnest in the fall of 2013 when a military curfew imposed after the removal of former President Mohamed Morsi ended. That returned control of the streets to the police, who were eager to reassert the authority they had lost during the country’s 2011 revolution that toppled President Hosni Mubarak.

The final years of Mr. Mubarak’s government, the turbulent days of the 2011 revolution and Mr. Morsi’s brief tenure were a time of relative openness for gay and transgender Egyptians.

At the time, the police were more preoccupied with trying to crush dissent and then protecting themselves when Mr. Mubarak resigned. Little attention was paid to gay Egyptians, who had last been the target of a widespread crackdown in 2001. That repression gained international attention with the arrest of dozens of gay men on the Queen Boat nightclub.

Are you afraid I'm going to tell you there's a Trump connection? Your fears are well-founded... His regime has been sending signals, very disturbing and dangerous signals.



First the good news: the UN Human Rights Council passed a resolution condemning the use of the death penalty as punishment for consensual gay relations. All the countries of Western Europe and Latin America (except Cuba, which abstained) voted for the resolution but the Trumpist Regime voted with several other barbaric fascist governments against it: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt, China, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia...

Ever Get Caught Up In A Revolution? Guest Post From Eden Unger Bowditch

Cairo, revolution

I met Eden Unger because I used to do a alt-metal rock show on KUSF in San Francisco and she was in an all girl hard core band, Rude Girl. Great band! Eventually, Sandy Pearlman (Blue Oyster Cult, Black Sabbath, The Clash) was going to produce their debut album for my record label and CBS, which had bought my company, was going to release it. But it never happened and I can't remember what exactly why or what transpired next. I remember Eden being a metal sculptor working with a blow torch and then the next thing I knew decades had passed, she was an author with a family and living in Cairo, teaching at the American University. Time flies. Her new book The Strange Round Bird is coming out in a few months, the third book in her trilogy, The Young Inventors Guild. It must have been at least a couple years ago that I asked her to share some of her thoughts about the Egyptian revolution with DWT readers. There's already been a counter-revolution, but today she sent in her post! You know metal people, right? And sculptors? Writers? Egyptians?


Aftershocks of a Revolution
-by Eden Unger Bowditch

The strangest thing was that we learned to live with the sounds of gunfire. As daylight began to fade each evening, Nate and Julius, our eldest son, who was 15 at the time, would join the other men in our building and barricade the glass entry. This was how the Egyptian revolution unfolded for us, in Cairo, in 2011.

Actually, that was how the unfolding continued. The beginning was just as much of a surprise for us as the rest of the world. Lyric, our daughter, was in Abu Dhabi for a Global Issues Network conference with other 7th graders from Cairo American College. She had plans for a slumber party with her two best friends when she returned that Friday. Julius had the lead in the HS musical, and Cyrus, then 6, was hanging out and being cute. And there was Olive, the dog, too.

The first night of the HS musical was Thursday, 27 January. There had been a massive protest on Tuesday, 25 January (now the date considered to be the Egyptian revolution) but that was on the other side of town. In truth, it was the 28th that everything went crazy. When Julius went to school to prepare for the Friday performance, he was told the school was closed. Closed? After months of preparation, his first thought was ‘Crap! No show?’ Looking around, he realized everything was closed. It wasn’t until later that the revolution dawned on us all.

Actually, technically, it wasn’t a revolution. It was the deposing of a dictator with nothing to fill the gap. At the time, we only knew we were in the middle of it, whatever it was. At 3am on Saturday, our car disappeared along with fifty other cars on the street. Tanks were filling the streets. At dusk, we and the other tenants barricaded the glass front doors of the building. Curfew was set at random hours, one day 4pm, the next day 1pm. We’d have to run home, hiding behind the ad hoc militia’s safe points (broken fences, benches, tires or chairs or other detritus blocking the road) where the local shop owners and bawabs (doormen) would band together to check for bombs and guns and folks who did not belong. Every few blocks, there was a different color of arm band, made from plastic bags. We had yellow. This allowed us to pass without being searched.

Then, they shut off the internet and mobile phone service. We had the only land line in the neighborhood that could call out of the country. This is how we contacted friends in Germany who contacted the hotel where Lyric was in Abu Dhabi. They found the teacher and told her to assure the kids that parents were OK. The teacher had no idea what was happening. They had been at the conference and had gone to sleep, never checking the news. Once they knew, The Global Issues Network kids crowded around the television, watching the tanks in the streets and the burning buildings. Still, it was surreal to them and they could not relate this to their own neighbourhood.

Back in Cairo, we had lines of friends and colleagues coming to our flat. Everyone was calling loved ones abroad to let them know they were alright. Many were scrambling to get to the airport. Those who tried to leave first were stranded at the airport for days before getting flights anywhere. Evacuations began in earnest and buses of colleagues started leaving. One of our dearest friend, former bureau chief of the New York Times in Cairo, now in Berlin, would call every few hours to let us know what was happening since we were cut off from our own news. He wanted us to leave, but we couldn’t. Lyric was still in Abu Dhabi and we had to be here when she got back. She was, we had heard, en route.Then we heard that flights were blocked leaving from Abu Dhabi to Cairo. The kids had to fly back through Bahrain. They flew from Bahrain to Cairo. Days later, Bahrain fell under a violent rebellion. That was too close.

When Lyric returned from Abu Dhabi, life had changed. Utterly. The friends who were planning the slumber party had evacuated, never to return. There were blockades in the streets, our jeep was gone, and there were tanks in the streets in front of our apartment building. The curfew sent people running through the streets for shelter. Lyric arrived at curfew. We ran.

For the next week or so, we would close the window when the gunfire became too loud or if we could smell clouds of teargas coming. We’d make whatever we had in the house since, without internet or ATMs, no use of credit cards or means of getting cash, we had few resources to buy food. Then, Cyrus began having nightmares of Bionicles taking over the city. The curfew became The Curfew, like The Bogeyman, and make us all run through the streets for shelter. It was time to get out of Dodge.

When you evacuate, you are flying away from something, not going to something, so you just get on the next plane out. We were put on a plane to Germany. In Frankfurt, they met us with blankets and fresh water. It was surreal. We called our New York Times friends when we landed and took the train from Frankfurt to Berlin. I remember thinking how strange the tanks at the airport looked… until I realized they were luggage vans. In Berlin, I was anxious about making lunch plans because of the curfew. But of course, we left that behind. Or did we? We were touched in ways we could not measure. Having been in uncertain circumstances has made us all more aware of the residual effects, the reverberations, of every experience we have in our lives.

World's Foremost Egyptologist, Dr. Zahi Hawass, Says Ben Carson's Theory About The Pyramids Is "Completely Wrong"

The first I remember hearing about the pyramids was when I was just 10. "You Belong To Me," the song with the lyrics, "See the pyramids along the Nile," was first released in 1952 by Sue Thompson, Patti Page, Jo Stafford and Dean Martin. It's been covered by Patsy Cline, Bing Crosby, Gene Vincent and even Bob Dylan, but the 1958 version by The Duprees was the one that stuck in my mind and made me dream about the pyramids. I finally got to see them in 1997. A few years later I wrote about the experience for my travel blog.

In Cairo the biggest deal is, of course, the Pyramids. And were we in luck on that score! You know the guy always on CNN whenever they do a story on mummies or anything old in Egypt-- Dr. Zahi Hawass? Well, one of the musicians, Andy Paley, in a band on Sire Records, where I used to work, was friends with some well-known American Egyptologist, a Rockefeller no less, and through this guy we had an introduction to Dr. Hawass, then Governor of the Pyramids (now Secretary General of the Supreme Council of Antiquities). This turned out to be a golden key to the most amazing visit to the Pyramids imaginable.

Dr. Hawass treated us to a tour usually reserved for heads of state. He literally closed down the Great Pyramid and made everyone else wait while we had it to ourselves! It's pretty awesome. Most things don't live up to expectations; that one did. He said we could sleep in it if we wanted to. We didn't at the time but now I'm sorry we didn't take him up on it. We didn't climb any pyramids... We didn't because a U.S. marine climbed up and fell off and died; so it's forbidden now. Afterwards he showed us a small, locked up pyramid that no one is allowed in except Charles De Gaulle and other people they wanted to impress. They don't want general traffic in there because of breathing. Next door they had a little museum with an ancient ship with a bunch of mummified pharaoh's servants on it. The Sphinx, on the other hand, was covered in scaffolding and seemed to be crumbling into the sand. Roland claims they were injecting silicon into it.

Well, thanks to Republican crank Ben Carson the pyramids have been in the news this week... and so has Doctor Hawass, explaining how Carson is "completely wrong" about his crackpot theory that Joseph built the pyramids to store grain (which, of course, Carson is standing by). Todd Zwillich of PRI called Dr. Hawass yesterday and interviewed him

Dr. Hawass, have you heard the statements about the pyramids being used to store grain and the controversy here in the United States?

Yes I have.

What Ben Carson said is completely wrong. There is plenty of evidence that it is wrong, and it is wrong for the following reasons:

1. The Canaanites did not come to Egypt until the Middle Kingdom. They have nothing… not one thing… to do with the Old Kingdom.

2. We as Egyptologists and archaeologists have all the evidence that the pyramids were made as tombs, simply because there are pieces of the bodies of the dynastic Kings named Zoser (Djoser) and Menkaure, the builder of the first pyramids, at Giza. The pieces from their bodies-- from their mummies-- were found in those pyramids.

3. If you look at the Valley of the Kings and you look at the tombs of pyramids from the New Kingdoms, you find extensive, exhaustive writing that says plainly what they were for. They were tombs.

If the pyramids were made to store grain, why do we have in Egypt 123 pyramids for kings and queens? If they were used for grain, Egyptologists and archaeologists would have excavated this at least once. They have not.

What about claims that the pyramid builders were Canaanite or Hebrew slaves?

I discovered the tombs of the pyramid builders at Giza that showed that the builders were Egyptians. The builders were not slaves. They were buried near the pyramids themselves, and of all the many names of builders that were found inside the tombs of the builders, there is not one name of a Canaanite, not one at all.

Have you heard Dr. Carson’s theory before?

The theory from this man is not new it has been said before. Almost every time I walk through the pyramids I meet a visitor who wants to talk about this theory. A Canadian director came once to make a film to prove the grain theory.

There are hundreds of theories about the function of the pyramids in America. Some people believe aliens. Some people believe Atlantis. All of these are completely wrong. We have excavated around the sites and in the sites and it proves that what this man says is completely wrong. I want to say: There is not one piece of evidence to show that it is correct.

The pyramids were solely to represent the power and the dignity of the Pharaohs. And there is every piece of evidence to prove it.

Does it frustrate you when you hear theories like this from well known people?

No. I’ve written hundreds of books. I hear theories like this all the time. When I hear them, I just laugh. This man wants to use it for publicity in his campaign because it references the Bible and people will believe it. But what happens in the Bible and in the Old Testament happened in the Middle Kingdom. It had nothing at all to do with the Old Kingdom and nothing to do with the pyramids.

Planning A Nice Little Vacation In Egypt? Slow Down

18 years ago I finally got to fulfill a childhood dream-- visiting Egypt. We planned to spend about a week in Cairo and a couple weeks roaming the country (including a Nile cruise to Aswan). Although it didn't seem so at the moment, some real misfortune for everyone else turned into a break for me and Roland. Just as we were leaving L.A. in November a bunch of religionist fanatics slaughtered a busload of tourists from Switzerland, Japan and the U.K. It was really a spectacular horror show with scimitar-wielding terrorists chasing unarmed tourists around the Temple of Hatshepsut across the river from Luxor and mercilessly slashing them to death. It was a bloody slaughter that went on for almost an hour; 5 dozen were murdered. Egypt, one of the world's biggest tourist destinations, immediately emptied of tourists. And they stopped coming (at for a couple weeks). I feel terrible for the Swiss and Japanese, of course; I mean what a way to go! But... well, Roland and I pretty much had Egypt to ourselves. I mean it was just us and the Egyptians, who, except for the scimitar-wielders, are an extremely generous, friendly and gracious people.

I think Luxor-- ancient Thebes, with goes back to about 3,000 BC-- and its environs (basically the Valley of the Kings and the Valley of the Queens) are the biggest tourist attractions in Egypt after the Pyramids. Tourism in Egypt brings in around 10 million visitors a year and accounts for about 10% of the economy. It was devastated by what happened in Luxor and devastated by subsequent acts of terrorism since then. Friday was a biggie, although American media has been pretty quiet about it. ISIS terrorists planted a bomb at an intersection close to the Hotel Medidien where many tourists visiting the Pyramids-- about a mile away-- stay. The bomb was found around 6AM, before it killed anyone but 4 Egyptians (2 policemen and two hotel security guards) were wounded, one critically, trying to defuse it with a water canon.

Last week Morgan Freeman was working at the Pyramids filming part of a #ThisIsEgypt tourism campaign meant to persuade western tourists that tourism is completely safe again. And, yes, he also visited lovely Luxor. It all looks safe to me:




UPDATE

And old friend-- a bass player from an old skool punk/metal band has been living in Cairo for almost a decade. She told me this morning that "A lot has changed in 18 years [since I visited Egypt], though it is still rather empty of tourists. Cairo isn't as scary as Boston or Paris or Baltimore. While the threat exists, ISIS has brought it to every corner of the globe so nowhere is safe."

Rewriting History In Real Time: Egypt

If the Arab Spring can say to have "started" anywhere, it was in Tunisia on December 18, 2010 in rural Sidi Bouzid when a 26 year old vegetable seller, Mohamed Bouazizi, gravely insulted by an authoritarian policewoman, set himself on fire, igniting weeks of demonstrations that spread across the country and unseated Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali after 23 years of repressive rule. Protests spread rapidly to Algeria, Jordan, Yemen, Oman, Syria, Bahrain, Libya and Egypt. Less than a month after the protests started Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia and one month after that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resigned following 18 days of massive protests, ending 3 decades as president/dictator. Last week Tunisia had a freely contested presidential election and will likely form a broad coalition government after next month's runoffs.

That isn't the how things turned out in Egypt, which has fallen under the iron grip of a violent, repressive military dictatorship. And earlier today, that dictatorship utterly rehabilitated the 86 year old Hosni Mubarak who had been convicted of every kind of corruption under the sun and for the murder of 846 Egyptians. A pack of Mubarak political and business cronies and his two crooked sons, Gamal and Alaa, also saw all their charges thrown out. Mubarak's life sentence was reversed-- counter-revolution in action, courtesy of the new dictator, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, who had been Mubarak's equivalent of the head of the CIA.

Commenting on the verdict, deputy Head of the Conference Party Salah Hasaballah said that “Egyptians are more concerned with the political future of their country than with the past."

Hasaballah told Ahram Online that Mubarak had given a lot to Egypt during his presidency and “after two revolutions and after a new elected president, our priorities are to focus on how to build the new Egypt.”

Political analyst Mohamed El-Agaty of the Arab Forum for Alternatives thinktank told Ahram Online that he expects that the political backlash to the verdict to be small and to pass quickly.

El-Agaty argued that the state and media have been propagating a state of "panic" that will not allow for any mobilisation against the verdict.

"It was also clear from the start that this case will go nowhere… there are no proper laws to fight corruption…you cant put them [former regime figures] on trial using their own laws," he opined.

Head of the liberal Constitution Party Hala Shukrallah told Ahram Online that politically things "are going back to how they were before the January 25 revolution."

"The old political order is being reinstated… even the figures of the old regime are resurfacing," she said.

The decision more or less acquits the entire regime of the crimes that sparked the revolution in Egypt in the first place. Tahrir Square was closed down immediately. Today's NY Times points out that "state-run and pro-government media now routinely denounce the pro-democracy activists who led the 2011 uprising as a 'fifth column' out to undermine the state. Some of the most prominent activists are in prison, and the Islamists who dominated the elections are now jailed as terrorists." Earlier this month prosecutor's asked for the death sentence for the elected president, Mohammed Morsi, who was overthrown and put in prison by the military junta. His supporters are still being imprisoned and murdered by the authorities.

Too late to rehabilitate Gaddafi... but something tells me Bashar al Assad's public image is going to undergo quite the transformation in coming months. As for Egypt... the revolution is over. Better luck next time. The muderous "king" of Bahrain, Sheikh Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifah, called Mubarak to congratulate him. Presumably the two of them had a good laugh over the fake Bahraini elections underway now.

"A man, a plan, a canal, Pana-" . . . oops, wrong canal!

Possibly there's a school of thought somewhere which holds that all canals look pretty much the same. But you don't have to be a canal whiz to know that this sure doesn't look like the Suez Canal. Why, it looks more like, like . . . .

"The man [the head of the Egyptian postal authority] didn't notice that the stamps show greenery on both sides of the canal while the Suez Canal runs in the middle of the desert!"

-- Amr Adeeb, host of TV's Cairo Today

by Ken

In fairness, Amr Adeeb, perhaps the gentleman in question, the one who "didn't notice that the stamps show greenery on both sides of the canal while the Suez Canal runs in the middle of the desert," was simply under the impression that Egypt's current military strongman President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi had formally decreed that the Suez Canal is now lined on both sides with greenery.

As we were noting just recently, the Finnish postal people seem to have gotten everything triumphantly right with their stamps honoring legendary homoerotic artist Tom of Finland; they've been overwhelmed with worldwide demand for the stamps.

You'd think there would be even more to celebrate with the Suez Canal, especially now that it's undergoing a dramatic expansion that will include the digging of a brand-new 45-mile channel. Alas, the path to Suez Canal stamphood encountered a wee glitch. Somebody seems to have gone to Google Images, typed in "canal," and downloaded the first image that came up.

Hmm, doesn't this canal look familiar?

Hint: This particular canal comes in handy if you want to sail your ship between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans without having to circle all the way around the southern tip of South America and making that perilous connection. (The Suez Canal has only the most tangential connection to the Atlantic Ocean, out the opposite end of the Mediterranean Sea, and has the entire Indian Ocean between it and the Pacific.)

When images of the about-to-be-issued stamps were circulated online, it didn't take long for international social-media users to cry foul. Our pal Mai Armstrong, tireless blogger for the Working Harbor Committee, flagged this oopsie-daisy on the WHC blog, drawing on this post from Gulf News:

Oops! Suez Canal stamps showcase Panama Canal
Mix-up has in the past few days been the butt of sharp criticism on local TV stations

By Ramadan Al Sherbin i Gulf News Correspondent

CAIRO -- Egyptian postal authorities have halted the official launch of stamps commemorating a new waterway after they were found to have mistakenly featured an image resembling the Panama Canal.

The state-run Egypt Post drew online rebuke and sarcasm after the stamps were leaked. The controversial stamps show a map of the Suez Canal and its building along with an image of a green area in which a two-lane waterway is seen looking like the Panama Canal that links the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

The mix-up has in the past few days been the butt of sharp criticism on local TV stations and from artists.

“This is an extraordinary scandal!” said celebrated TV host Amr Adeeb on his popular show Cairo Today. “The head of the postal authority must be sacked or step down to show regret over this disgrace. The man didn’t notice that the stamps show greenery on both sides of the canal while the Suez Canal runs in the middle of the desert!”

To Mohammad Abla, a prominent artist, the blunder is “an artistic, ethical and legal crime”.

“Stamps are very important because they publicise the country that issues them. This crime shows that those carrying out such designs at the postal authority are bureaucrats.”

Urgent investigation

He added it showed their “cronies lacked professionalism.”

The Ministry of Telecommunications, of which Egypt Post is an affiliate, said it would open an urgent investigation into the incident.

Meanwhile, Egypt Post admitted the mix-up in what it called an “initial design”. “The initial design of the stamps will be revised and modified so that the new stamps will be officially launched in the next few days,” the agency said in a statement.

The stamps are aimed to celebrate a 72-kilometre-long waterway, which Egypt is building parallel to the existing Suez Canal.

The route, launched by President Abdul Fattah Al Sissi, is part of a multi-billion-dollar project to develop the Suez Canal zone and establish Egypt as a major global trade and industrial hub. It features the establishment of facilities for refuelling and repairing ships, a high-technology hub, and plants for chemicals, lumber, textiles and car assemblage, resorts and vast expansion of land reclamation in the area.

Will the real Suez Canal please stand up?

-- Farwa Rizwan/ Al Arabiya News (click to enlarge)

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