DCCC On A Mission

The DCCC is pointing out that currently the GOP is holding 61 seats in districts Obama won (14 of which were also won by Kerry in 2004), which will make it smoother for them to end up on the winning side of the equation in 2012. Maybe they should give their members-- and challengers-- lessons in remedial grassroots campaign strategy... if they can find anyone to teach it. "They're utterly clueless," one Democratic congressman told us. "All they know how to do is raise loads of money from industry groups and put up as many wholly ineffectual TV ads as they can afford... It's very profitable for the consultants, like your blog highlighted just after the election."

Democrats are weeding through November’s election returns to decipher which Members are the most vulnerable Republicans, beginning with those who won marginal districts. Among others, the committee will target Republicans who won districts President Barack Obama carried in 2008 and those who won with 55 percent or less-- the mark used as a ceiling for competitive races.

The bulk of the targets will be in New Hampshire, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and Texas. Here's a list of likely targets, listed in order of their winning percentage, from lowest to highest. The second number is the percentage by which Obama won the district:



Charlie Bass (NH)/48/56

Chip Cravaack (MN)/48/53

Blake Farenthold (TX)/48/53

Joe Heck (NV)/48/55

Quico Canseco (TX)/49/51

Joe Walsh (IL)/49/56

Ann Marie Buerkle (NY)/50/56

Renee Ellmers (NC)/50/53

Jon Runyan (NJ)/50/52

Tim Walberg (MI)/50/52

Robert Dold (IL)/51/61

Randy Hultgren (IL)/51/55

Dan Lungren (CA)/51/49

Dan Benishek (MI)/52/50

Mary Bono Mack (CA)/52/52

Steve Chabot (OH)/52/55

Sean Duffy (WI)/52/56

Richard Hanna (NY)/53/50

Nan Hayworth (NY)/53/51

Jaime Herrera (WA)/53/53

Dave Reichert (WA)/53/57

Scott Rigell (VA)/53/50

Bobby Schilling (IL)/53/56

David Dreier (CA)/54/51

Mike Fitzpatrick (PA)/54/54

Frank Guinta (NH)/54/53

Allen West (FL)/54/52

Lou Barletta (PA)/55/57

Chris Gibson (NY)/55/51

Pat Meehan (PA)/55/56

Reid Ribble (WI)/55/53

Steve Stivers (OH)/55/54

This is by no means a definitive list, even if the DCCC wants it to be. Much will involve local candidates' ability to gain grassroots traction. And there is a level of opportunism that could easily push districts not on this list to the fore. For example, WI-1 is chock full of popular, high-profile Democratic officeholders who have been waiting (and waiting) to take back Les Aspin's old district, which fell into the hands of Paul Ryan. Ryan's never been a credible opponent, because Democrats figured that the Wall Street favorite would eventually seek higher office. In 2012 he is likely to try to move to the Senate seat currently held by Herb Kohl.

Even more relevant for office-seekers will be the results of the big gerrymander reflecting the 2010 census. This will create opportunities for pickups on both sides of the aisle. We spoke with half a dozen defeated Democratic congressmen, all of whom said they will wait to see the newly redrawn districts before they decide whether or not to run again.

Many of the defeated Democrats were conservatives, especially Blue Dogs, and with former Blue Dog Steve Israel taking over the DCCC it is likely that Rahm Emanuel's policy of recruiting conservative and corrupt Democrats will be the order of the day, which will make it next to impossible for the Democrats to inspire any enthusiasm from their own grassroots. Ultra-conservative freshman Blue Dog Glenn Nye, for example, lost his Virginia seat to wealthy far right Republican Scott Rigell. Nye very much wants to run again, and he made many friends among lobbyists and industry groups that like having anti-consumer Democrats like Nye in Congress. If he can raise the money he needs to mount a comeback challenge, he's likely to try again in the hope that having Obama at the top of the ticket will turn out enough Democrats in 2012 to help his chances. This year Democrats just saw no reason to bother showing up in his district, since he tended to vote with Republicans on almost every contested issue.

Alan Mollohan is a longtime middle-of-the-road Democrat who tended to vote with his own party more often than not but drew a fanatically conservative primary opponent who took advantage of Mollohan's ethics problems. The conservative Democrat, Mike Oliverio, was beaten by a West Virginia Republican Party functionary, David McKinley, and Mollohan has already made it clear-- by deeds if not words-- that he's running again. Among the other Democrats already making noises about running for their old seats are Dina Titus (NV), Charlie Wilson (Blue Dog-OH), Bob Etheridge (NC), Harry Mitchell (Blue Dog-AZ), Tom Perriello (VA), and Bobby Bright (Blue Dog-AL).