How Badly Will A GOP Filibuster Of DADT Hurt Obama?

All through the 1600s and 1700s blacks and whites fought side by side in an integrated American Army. Because of the virulently racist sociopaths who ran the show in the South, that ended after the War of 1812-- and stayed ended until the Korean War! Even during World War II, most black enlisted men served as truck drivers and stevedores, although during the emergency of the Battle of the Bulge, Eisenhower made the decision-- not without hysterical opposition from his chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Walter Bedell Smith-- to allow black troops to fight alongside white troops for the first time. Although Smith (who later led the CIA) predicted the American public would be outraged by the notion of integration, the U.S. victory in Europe seemed to take precedence.

After the war it was clear that racist Southern congressional leaders would block President Truman's plan to integrate the armed forces. KKK members like Georgia's Richard Russell played the bigoted role back then that McCain is playing today in the struggle to end Don't Ask Don't Tell. Truman ended the debate in 1948 by issuing Executive Order 9981:

It is hereby declared to be the policy of the President that there shall be equality of treatment and opportunity for all persons in the armed services without regard to race, color, religion or national origin. This policy shall be put into effect as rapidly as possible, having due regard to the time required to effectuate any necessary changes without impairing efficiency or morale.

There was nothing for the racists to do but fulminate, threaten and pout. And they did. But Truman showed the kind of leadership Americans would like to see from Obama. Today 3 of 4 of Congress' leading voices on the Armed Services committees are out-and-out bigots: McCain (including his wife), Buck McKeon (R-CA), and defeated ConservaDem Ike Skelton. Only Senator Carl Levin backs Obama's plan to end DADT. Yesterday The Hill looked at the choices falling to Harry Reid this month as the Senate takes up a defense authorization bill already passed by the House that includes an amendment-- Patrick Murphy's-- to end DADT. That passed 234-194 on May 27, with 26 homophobic Democrats crossing the aisle to vote with all but 5 Republicans. Of the 26 anti-gay Democrats, only 12 will be back in Congress. The defeated or retiring homophobes are Marion Berry (Blue Dog-AR), Rick Boucher (Blue Dog-VA), Bobby Bright (Blue Dog-AL), Chris Carney (Blue Dog-PA), Travis Childers (Blue Dog-MS), Lincoln Davis (Blue Dog-TN), Chet Edwards (Blue Dog-TX), Bob Etheridge (NC), Solomon Ortiz (TX), Earl Pomeroy (Blue Dog-ND), Ike Skelton (MO), John Spratt (SC), John Tanner (Blue Dog-TN) and Gene Taylor (Blue Dog-MS).

It remains to be seen how many Senate Democrats will scurry across the aisle to support McCain's threatened filibuster. Joe Manchin (D-WV) was sworn in yesterday. Anyone unsure of where he stands?

But abandoning the effort to repeal the “Don’t ask, don’t tell” policy would be a political disaster for President Obama, who made a campaign promise to end the ban.

And with a Republican majority in the House and diminished Democratic numbers in the Senate in the incoming Congress, the lame-duck session may be the last chance to repeal “don’t ask” before the 2012 presidential campaign begins in earnest.

If Reid isn’t able to move the repeal through the Senate, Obama will have to explain to his liberal base why he failed to follow through on a central promise from his 2008 campaign.

Both Reid and the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), have been vocal supporters of repealing ban. And Levin, together with another chief supporter, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), was able to include a repeal provision in the 2011 defense authorization bill.

Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the panel’s leading Republican, has been pulling out all the stops to see that provision removed from the Pentagon’s massive policy bill. The Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), backs him.

The defense authorization bill will not be part of the Senate’s schedule this week. But one of the military officers leading the Pentagon’s study into the implications of repeal is scheduled to testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday. Gen. Carter Ham has been nominated to lead Africa Command and will appear for a confirmation hearing, offering a chance for lawmakers to press him on the matter.

The Pentagon study, which both sides will likely use to make their respective cases, is due on Dec. 1. Results leaked recently to the Washington Post showed the military could lift the ban with minimal risk to the current war operations. But, at the very least, Republicans will insist on hearings on the findings. The pressure of the running clock could further diminish the chances of passage of the defense bill containing the repeal provision.

...Informal deliberations between the House and Senate committees over the defense bill already broke down this week over the politics of repeal. But congressional sources said the committees may attempt to revive discussions next week.

Much depends on how Reid handles the issue. But if Congress fails to pass a final bill, or the final bill does not include repeal, it will deal a blow to the president who has promised both publicly and privately to the gay rights community that the law will be scrapped.

Gay rights activists have become increasingly impatient with the White House on the issue, and tensions have escalated in recent weeks.

Those who want to see the end of “don’t ask” have heckled the president at campaign stops and town hall meetings, demanding to know why he hasn’t done more. Gay rights advocates are particularly upset with the administration’s decision to appeal a court ruling that overturned the military’s policy.

Not ending the policy “would be a major setback for gay and lesbian service members as well as the president,” said Aubrey Sarvis, the executive director of Servicemembers Legal Defense Network an organization dedicated solely to repeal.

While the leaked results of the Pentagon’s repeal study put wind the sail of repeal supporters, they had the opposite effect on detractors. The Family Research Council, a conservative organization, is asking Defense Secretary Robert Gates to investigate the leak.