Can Transpartisan, Racist Conservatives Kill The DREAM Act In The Senate?

Do you ever wind up on any psychotic right wing e-mail lists? Somehow this Tony Caputo guy-- no idea who he is-- started sending me daily, often 2 or 3 a day, actually-- right-wing propaganda screeds. Normally I just delete them without opening but yesterday I saw one about Harry Reid bring up the DREAM Act again, I decided to take a look. And sure enough, crazy as the rest of the garbage these bigots and rightists are poisoning themselves with. I guess this is for the ones who don't spend 2-3 hours a day commuting from their suburbs to work when they're at the mercy of Hate Talk Radio, listening to Limbaugh, Hannity and Beck spew anti-American propaganda and insurrection. The hysteria began with this:



And that's the calm part. After that it's pure racist, Know Nothing screed. For the anti-Latino nativist Republicans the DREAM Act is all about "stealth amnesty," even claiming that fake colleges are going to "pop up faster [than] tequila bottle in Tijuana." These are really sick, hateful people poisoning themselves and poisoning the whole country with their hatred and fear. "Illegal aliens," he continues, "probably delivered to Harry Reid his margin of victory against Sharron Angle in the election earlier this month. Now it is payback time."

The missive ends with a semi-coherent call to action:

In Tennessee, we have to [sic] RINO’s who have mastered a great trick. They will vote for cloture (to end debate, which requires 60 votes), and then when the bill is up for an actual vote, and only requires a simple majority, they will vote against it. “I was for the bill before I was against the bill.” Doesn’t that sound familiar?
 
Tell your Senators to vote no on any vote related to the DREAM act.
 
Then call the Office of Senator Mitch McConnell. His number is (202) 224-2541. Tell them you are a Tea Party activist and this is one issue we will not forgive the Republicans for if they fail us. There are 41 Republican Senators. They can kill this bill. The good news is, there are also a few Democrats who might defect and help us out as well.

You almost feel sorry for the Republicans for enabling these misfits and racists who can now exercise so much control over the party! Almost.

When the DREAM Act came up in October, 2007, the Republican filibuster prevented a vote. Cloture failed 52-44. At the time there were 8 conservative Democrats who voted with the racists, Max Baucus (MT), Robert Byrd (WV), Kent Conrad (ND), Byron Dorgan (ND), Mary Landrieu (LA), Claire McCaskill (MO), Mark Pryor (AR), and Jon Tester (MT). And there were exactly a dozen Republicans voting in favor of ending the filibuster and allowing a vote: Bob Bennett (UT), Sam Brownback (KS), Norm Coleman (MN), Susan Collins (ME), Larry Craig (ID), Chuck Hagel (NE), Orrin Hatch (UT), Kay Bailey Hutchison (TX), Trent Lott (MS), Dick Lugar (IN), Mel Martinez (FL), and Olympia Snowe (ME).

The political dynamic around the bill has changed somewhat since then and it's not likely that the same people will vote the same way. Bennett has been defeated by teabaggers in a primary and he has no reason to bow to their will and switch up. On the other hand Olympia Snowe, Kay Bailey Hutchison and Orrin Hatch are all facing the ugliness of teabagger primaries before their 2012 reelection campaigns and none are exactly Profiles-in-Courage types. (Keep in mind that the whole concept of the DREAM Act was thought up and proposed by Dick Durbin and... Orrin Hatch, as a bipartisan solution.) Hatch and the other two three are likely to walk the straight and narrow teabagger line from now until reelection time. Coleman has been replaced by Al Franken, an avid DREAM Act supporter. But Larry Craig, Trent Lott and Chuck Hagel have been replaced by racist kooks, Jim Risch, Roger Wicker and Mike Johanns. And Mel Martinez has been replaced by George LeMieux who is leaving the Senate after the lame duck session but who has political ambitions likely to determine how he votes. He's being heavily lobbied by both sides. If LeMieux is the deciding vote, he'll be a no vote. The guy's one of the most craven and cowardly Members of the Senate ever. There's a chance Scott Brown could vote for it but that's a long shot too.

On the Democratic side of the aisle, it's just as complicated. Ben Nelson, also up for reelection in 2012, has already announced he is flip flopping from his yes vote in 2007 to a no vote this week. “I’m not going to support any act that I don’t think adds to jobs, or military or to the economy. Consequently I won’t support any motion to proceed or any kind of cloture on the DREAM Act. In addition, I think that has to be part of an overall comprehensive solution to immigration once we have the border secured, not until then.”

Byrd has been replaced by the far more conservative Joe Manchin so that's not likely to be a change for the better on this one. Given the character of the Democrats who would be needed to support it if it were to pass-- pathetic wretches like McCaskill, Pryor, Landrieu and Conrad, I'd say this is going to be one of the toughest battles Harry Reid has ever faced... and that his chance to win is minuscule.